Modeling of the Fragility of Iran Cities Using Interpretive-Structural Method

Today, the challenges of the new age such as inequality, poverty, violence, migration, pandemic diseases, reduction of energy resources, etc. have turned into global concerns. Cities are under pressure from these challenges and if not properly managed, they become increasingly fragile. Accordingly, the main goal of the current research is to identify and prioritize urban fragility drivers in Iran cities.

This is a descriptive-analytical study carried out between 2019 and 2022 based on the mixed pragmatism paradigm in Tehran. For this purpose, considering the drivers of fragility mentioned in the theoretical foundations of the research, the factors affecting the fragility of Iran's cities were identified by interviewing14 experts in the field of urban planning using the environmental survey technique and the structural analysis method. Then, these drivers were categorized into levels using the structural-interpretive modeling technique and a questionnaire. After determining the level of each factor and considering the final reachability matrix, the final ISM was drawn.

Based on the results of structural-interpretive modeling, twenty drivers of urban fragility in Iran's cities were classified into eleven levels to determine the priority of each one to be addressed in order to reduce fragility.

Social inequality, gender inequality, political instability and sanctions are the strongest drivers of fragility in Iran, respectively.