Development of empowerment scenarios for the poor residents of the inefficient oil structures of Abadan city in the horizon of 2041

The main sustainable challenges in inefficient urban textures are economic, social/ cultural, physical and spatial poverty of the residents of these textures. Applying empowerment strategy when facing with urban poverty is one of the approaches of so many cities. The poverty of inefficient textures reflects shortcomings and failures of government policies and official market and is considered among main factors of anomalies in urban relations. The presents study aims at providing probable scenarios for the empowerment of the inefficient poverty texture of Abadan Naft Shahr in 1420 horizon by identifying strategic and key effective factors. The data of this study achieved by mixed method of interview with the experts and Delphi method and the main factors were detected, cleansed or mixed in two steps. At last, 50 factors and main processes detected and their mutual effects gathered through questionnaire and analyzed by Micmac. Finally, 15 factors identified as strategic and key propellers. Next, the empowerment scenarios of the poor residents of Abadan Naft Shahr inefficient textures were identified by mixing Cross Impact Analysis method and Scenario Wizard. The number of 15 scenarios enjoy very high intensity in the probability of occurrence so that the score of these 15 scenarios ranges 17 to 25, finally after validation by the experts, Four scenarios were created. Then the state of each scenario was drawn by graphical model in GIS considering the extracted indices. It seems that the state of two main corruption and the price of house indices will increase in all mentioned scenarios. Even the most optimist analyses don’t predict a kind of management in political-economic field free from corruption in Abadan Naft Shahr.