Monitoring land use system changes and predicting changes based on Markov chain model (Case study: Sabzevar city)

Urban sprawl is a well-known feature of most cities in developing countries. Unbalanced urban expansion towards the surrounding rural areas has led to the disorderly development of the city, the destruction of natural lands and the conversion of suitable agricultural lands to other uses. The current research was conducted with the aim of investigating and predicting land use changes in villages around Sabzevar city. The current research is descriptive-inferential in terms of its practical purpose, and analytical-composite research from the point of view of doing it. In this research, four major uses of built spaces, gardens, vegetation and barren spaces have been investigated and predicted. The time period of the images from 1985 to 2020 is considered to examine the changes in uses and to 2040 for forecasting. To process images, Kappa coefficient and Markov chain models have been used in GIS, ENVI, Tersset and SAGA programs. The results show that the development of built uses will cause changes in vegetation and garden classes and reduce barren land use. Markov model prediction shows that the area of built spaces in 1985 was equal to 13 square kilometers, which increased to 42 square kilometers in 2020 and is predicted to reach 54 square kilometers in 2040, with an annual growth of 1.3 percent.