Futurism of sports tourism destinations based on a scenario approach (Case study: Isfahan province)

Lack of attention to the future in the micro and macro tourism policies of the country and insisting on the model of "planning based on the current situation" has led to the adoption of very fragile policies to manage sports tourism destinations. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the future of sports tourism destinations based on identifying the factors and drivers leading to possible scenarios up to the time horizon of 2031, which has been done through a case study in Isfahan province.

The research method of this study is survey. Research data were collected using three

interview, theoretical literature review and weighted questionnaires. The statistical population of the study included 14 experts in the field of sports tourism who were selected by purposive method. Data analysis was performed using structural analysis and scenario analysis.

Isfahan sports tourism system is an unstable system that in the future will depend on the immediate changes of variables with high uncertainty. Based on the identification of four critical uncertainties and five predetermined factors, a total of 16 scenarios were created, including two unlikely scenarios, five inconsistent scenarios, three low-probability scenarios, four medium-probability scenarios and two high-probability scenarios.

The lack of a unified and coherent policy with the ability of continuous and dynamic updating at the national level, has led to the vulnerability of sports tourism destinations in Isfahan province. Therefore, the most important strategies and future planning actions should be focused on policy-making at the provincial level.