Investigating the Impact of Input Price Shocks in Iranian Egg Market

Eggs are one of the most important protein products with a special place in the food basket of Iranian households. The large changes in the price of this product can have a great impact on buyers and producers. A large share of the cost of egg production is related to the consumption of two inputs, soy and corn; therefore, the final price and fluctuations in the price of eggs are highly dependent on the prices of these two inputs and their fluctuations. In this research, by using bounds-testing, the long-term and short-term relationships between egg prices and soybean and corn prices were explored, as well as the effect of the price shocks of these inputs in the egg market. This test was carried out in the form of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the presence of cointegration relationship between the variables in different modes was investigated. Since the lack of long-term relationship between the variables was rejected in all three studied modes, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was found to be suitable for investigating the shocks on the egg market. The study results showed that the shocks on soybean prices had the greatest effect on the fluctuation of egg prices in the short term, and in the long term, the leadership of the egg price (increase or decrease in the price of eggs) was done by the shocks on the corn market. Therefore, it is suggested that in the short term, the policy-maker should prevent the transfer of shocks from the soy market to eggs by adopting suitable tariff policies (variable tariff appropriate to fluctuations in global input prices); in addition, with the development of corn cultivation in areas susceptible to cultivation, the need to import this product would be minimized, because with self-sufficiency in corn production, the impact of global shocks on the market of this product and the egg market will be reduced, and it will be easier to control domestic shocks than the global shocks.