Assessment of the Hazards of Vegetation Loss in the Eastern Basin of the Lake Urmia Based on the Ecosystem Services Modeling Approach Under the Conceptual Framework of DPSIR

Ecosystem assessments have become increasingly important as the hazards posed by natural and human drivers, and the pressure on natural ecosystems increases, especially in developing countries as Iran. This is particularly true for the Lake Urmia watershed due to its vital role in in the provision of various ecosystem services that that different groups of stakeholders benefit from. In this research, a combination of two quantitative assessment methods based on ecosystem modeling using the Water World Policy Support System (WWPSS) and a descriptive assessment using the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) conceptual framework was applied to link the results of evaluating land-use change, climate change and their effects on echo-hydrological parameters (vegetation, water budget, runoff, and soil erosion) with the aim of spatial zoning of hazards and its application in principled and conscious environmental management in the watershed of Lake Urmia .Vegetation loss caused by climate change has resulted in a change in the average net soil erosion in the watershed from -0.012 to 0.20 mm per year per square meter. In other words, the average soil erosion in the watershed only during the period under review rose dramatically by more than 3 tons per hectare. If this trend continues, soil erosion will become more severe.The capacities of the proposed method used in this research can be developed and more innovative solutions can be investigated to face ecological challenges in watershed management by further application of quantification models of eco-hydrological functions in the future.