The role of intelligence services in managing international crises

This article tries to examine the role of intelligence services in announcing the initial warning of political crises, their intensification and resolution. This article argues that in this world, with the increasing complexity and interconnectedness of intelligence services, crisis forecasting and its likely consequences may not be available to policymakers, but the potential for intelligence services to help policymakers understand critical, uncertain and It is unpredictable because its complexity encompasses a wide range of possible outcomes. This research has been done with a qualitative approach and with a descriptive-analytical method and library study tools and concludes that the role of intelligence services in crisis management has evolved over different periods of time, especially with the emergence and expansion of the web world. And unforeseen events can be reflected in an intensified crisis through a fully networked world with catastrophic consequences, as well as trivial events. Hence, there is an urgent need for a new way of supporting the information system for policymakers in crisis.