Land Use Change analysis of the Lake Urmia Basin Using LCM model until 2040

Urmia Lake is the most extensive Iran, whose water level has decreased significantly in recent years. This study aims to analyze changes in land use in the past and predict its changes in the future using land change modelling (LCM). In this study, Landsat images of TM and ETM sensors (in 2000, 2010 and 2020) related to May and June were analyzed with the shortest time interval. Images of all three time periods were classified into six categories: agriculture, forest, rangeland, waterbody, human-made areas, and low-lying cover, including soil and rock. The development trend of the next 20 years will be seen in medium-sized cities such as Saqqez.Regarding the use of oak forests, there is almost stability that the area of these forests increases from 532 thousand hectares to 510 thousand hectares, the rate of change of which is less than 2%, and this trend will decrease compared to previous periods in this area. In total, we expect 50% of the area to be destroyed in this area. Rangelands have increased from 52% of their area to 26% of their area and a large area of the area can be seen quickly and with low coverage. Therefore, low power cover or soil from 10% of the total area of the basin to 37% and most of the Urmia basin becomes desert or uncovered. Agriculture continues in its early 2000s with only 2% as these are the only areas that support this use with ecological potential.