Scenarios of Change in the UN Security Council; Emphasizing the Approach of the US and the Possible Consequences for the Islamic Republic of Iran

After a relatively peaceful period, it seems that a new period has emerged in the life cycle of the Security Council with the selfish, ambitious and unilateral behavior of the United States. From the Americans point of view, international institutions and especially important structures such as the Security Council are supported and accepted as long as the interests of the United States are secured in them. With this approach and while in the new multipolar world, there are some gaps between the opinion of the United States and the other powers that are members of the Security Council and the member countries of the General Assembly, it seems that the United States is making new arrangements. Considering the unclear perspective of the structure of the Security Council and the approach of the United States and the international community in this regard, the main question of this research is what will be the consequences of reforming the structure of the United Nations Security Council in the framework of the national interests of the United States of America for the Islamic Republic of Iran? In response to this question, this research examines all possible scenarios and their consequences for the Islamic Republic of Iran with the aim of foresight and using Peter Schwartz's scenario writing method.Although in the past, the United States has a desire to make changes in the United Nations, but based on the current evidence, the United States is trying to pursue its goals and interests through the reforms of the Secretary General and with a justified appearance, from the reforms of the Security Council and the United Nations. In this framework, America's goal is to increase its influence and reduce the opposition power in this council. Based on the trends and considering the many variables and various obstacles to the implementation of any changes and reforms, the "scenario of the continuation of the status quo" can be the most likely scenario for the Security Council. This is definitely not the desired scenario of the United States, and basically for this reason, it has fueled the discussion of reforms and pursues this issue at the highest level of its government and interaction with countries. So it seems that another possible scenario is "Distributed Security Council". In this scenario, the main goal of the United States is to increase the influence of its own and allied countries, and to reduce the power of opposing countries (especially Russia and China). As discussed in the analysis of the national security strategy documents of the United States of America, in a broad and strategic effort, this country is trying to rebuild the existing key institutions or create new institutions in order to manage the world in accordance with the new era and the future perspective. . It is in this framework that Trump's reforms find their role. But the question here is what is America's strategy and Biden's plan in this regard? Probably, the United States has prepared plans like this in the form of the UN reform plan - the generalities of which were approved by the majority of countries.The general plan of the United States is a "behind-the-scenes strategy." For this purpose, the United States seeks to assemble a creative legal, institutional and political solution to circumvent Russia and China. By obtaining the support of at least two-thirds of the members of the General Assembly, legitimizing the use of military force beyond the current structure of the Council, attracting the opinion of the G20 members to the reforms, including its aligned members in the Security Council and limiting the veto, the United States seeks to Practically, the guidance and leadership of the council gained security. Probably part of the US plan is to convert the current "free veto". The hidden goal of this plan is to weaken the current decision-making process through future "reforms" and finally remove the "free veto", which means that this tool will be removed from the hands of Russia and China. To achieve this, the United States may raise a greater number of related and unrelated issues in the Security Council to highlight the inefficiency of the Security Council and challenge it. Creating a heavy workload and intensifying the mentality that the council with its current structure and members cannot provide its basic responsibility in the field of security is one of the goals of such a possible action. Another possible measure is to reduce financial support from the United Nations and the Security Council. This action is a practical threat that, in addition to creating real pressure, will also create the right psychological atmosphere to advance America's plan: a) Facilitate the entry of countries targeted by America, which also have adequate financial capacity to support. b) Imposing the share of financial support from other countries on the shoulders of newly arrived countries, which is the use of the motivation of these countries and at the same time can attract the support of other members of the United Nations in support of this plan. Part of America's plan may be to maneuver around the lack of council members and look for replacement or new members. In this framework, a 25-member Security Council is possible with the increase of fixed seats to 10 members and the increase of non-fixed seats to 15 members. There are many considerations in the selection of these members, but options such as Japan, Germany, Brazil, India and even Jordan are more fortunate and they are countries that happen to be under the influence of America and have a lot of alignment with this country. As mentioned, various scenarios regarding the future of the UN Security Council can be imagined, some of which seem more likely, but at the same time, from the point of view of national interests, less likely scenarios should not be ignored.Therefore, considering each of imagined scenarios, it is necessary to analyze the consequences and prepare the necessary measures. Also, in front of the alternative situations of the future, it is possible to design the scenarios of the confrontation accordingly, which, of course, requires the participation of thinkers, experts and politicians. All this, some joint activities and special measures can be prepared according to the total of scenarios or possible and desired scenarios, some of which were mentioned in the previous sections and the general summary It is shown below. According to the space drawn, it can be seen that compared to the current situation, nine of the thirteen possible scenarios lead to the aggravation of the conditions against J.A. Iran tends at the same time, some of these scenarios include some more room for diplomatic maneuvering and practical action. In contrast to the three scenarios, the message of a better situation for J.A. Iran, of course, is considered one of the less likely scenarios. As a summary, according to the drawn space of Security Council change scenarios, it is possible to display the actions and the general way of facing each category of scenarios in the form of the following figure.