Development scenarios for electric vehicles in Iran with Dynamic System method

In recent years, energy shortage and environmental pollution have greatly promoted the rapid development of electric vehicles in the industry. With the growing importance of environmental issues, replacing fossil fuel sources with renewable energies has become a necessity. A large part of environmental pollution is related to the transportation sector. Replacing fossil fuel vehicles with electric vehicles is a suitable solution to reduce environmental pollution and energy consumption. The development of electric vehicles in Iran has many challenges, such as charging stations, the high price of electric vehicles, low mileage, and most importantly, the cheap price of fuel. Therefore, in this article, the scenarios of the development of electric vehicles in Iran are examined. For this purpose, 4 scenarios are defined in Vensim software. In these scenarios, two important parameters of fuel price and environmental issues are considered. The results show that fuel price reform will lead to faster growth of electric vehicles and the higher the slope of fuel price reform will lead to faster growth of electric vehicles. Also, the results show that the environmental problem alone cannot be the reason for the rapid growth of electric vehicles in Iran, but as a primary parameter, it plays a significant role in the growth of these cars.