Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Expenses of the Social Security Organization

The escalating costs of the social security system, coupled with the rising burden of expenses on income, represent some of the most significant economic challenges facing our country. Formulating a plan to address this issue necessitates an understanding of the factors that influence the expenses of the social security system. It is crucial to assess the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on social security expenditures.

In this study, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed to assess the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the expenses of the Social Security Organization from 2010 to 2019. The ARDL model is a single equation approach that incorporates past lags of both independent variables and the dependent variable itself into the equation, providing a more accurate estimate. The data for this research were sourced from the statistical records and financial statements of the Social Security Organization. After standardization, these data were then incorporated into the study.

Liquidity and the ratio of government expenditures to gross domestic product (GDP) exert a negative impact on social security expenditures. This could be attributed to the short-term effects of these variables on business prosperity and the temporary reduction of unemployment. The correlation of unemployment, interest rates, and exchange rates with the organization’s expenses was found to be positive. Additionally, the life expectancy index and support ratio positively influenced the organization’s expenses. This was one of the advantages of the Social Security Organization, as it led to an increase in the benefit period for pensioners. In the long term, an increase in liquidity, coupled with the effects of inflation and wage growth, can lead to a rise in social security costs. Similarly, an increase in the support ratio and life expectancy exerts the same effects.

The government’s monetary and fiscal policies significantly influence the financial status of the Social Security Organization. Considering the organization’s impact on the well-being of over 45 million individuals, it is crucial to consider its role as a non-governmental public institution when making macro-policy decisions in various fields. These decisions should consider their effects on all aspects of the macroeconomics and institutions, especially non-governmental public institutions, such as the Social Security Organization.