Modeling the Development and Expansion of Tabriz City with an Emphasis on Demographic Changes

The increasing expansion of cities which is affected by population growth and migration, has led to unplanned constructions and many changes in the spatial structure and physical development of cities. One of the major problems in urban planning due to the population growth and the lack of infrastructure facilities is determining the appropriate space for the physical development to satisfy the current needs and anticipate future needs. Therefore, it is very important to pay attention to the population as the main driver of changes in the future of the city. Considering the issue, this research tried to investigate the state of development and physical growth of Tabriz, considering the population of the city and the obstacles to its growth. To collect data, satellite images of Tabriz and document-library studies were used. For data analysis, 2016 Tabriz master plan and land use map (extracted for 1996 to 2022), as well as GIS, ENVI and TERRSET software were used. The ICM method was applied to predict urban growth. The findings showed that the direction of development of Tabriz is strongly affected by natural and human factors and will change the direction of development in the future. By examining the final map, the direction of development is determined. The future development of Tabriz will be towards the north and northwest. Finally, by predicting the population of Tabriz, its growth rate was adapted to the predicted population. At the end, some solutions were suggested to improve the current situation, which require the serious attention of managers and planners of this city.