Quantitative Risk assessment of Gasoline Storage Tank Farm Unit using by Fuzzy Set Theory and Consequence modeling

  Storage tanks are always one of the equipment that can cause serious risks for industries and nearby units due to the complex process conditions. Releasing the substances of these tanks can lead to consequences such as fiery explosions and the dispersion of toxic substances. Therefore, identifying the causes and modeling their consequences is considered essential.

In this study, the bow tie diagram for identifying the cause-and-effect diagram of diesel tanks, and also fuzzy theory for determining the failure rate of basic events, were used. In order to determine the probability of basic events, fuzzy theory and experts' opinions were considered, and finally, phast8.2 software was used for modeling possible scenarios.

The results of the bow tie analysis showed that a total of 45 basic events and 4 consequences, including pool fire, eruption fire, sudden fire and explosion were identified. The result of consequence modeling showed that the maximum intensity of the thermal radiation caused by the pool fire for the diesel tank was equal to 23 kW / m2 and the maximum increase in the blast wave was estimated to be 19.7 bar. The results of risk evaluation for the consequences of pool fire, eruptive fire and steam explosion showed that the estimated risk number is more than 104 and are in the unacceptable range.

Using the bow tie method in combination with consequence modeling can provide experts with a more open view of the accidents along with causes and consequences which happen for storage tanks