The Attitude of Information Science Experts about the Future Developments of Public Libraries

There are so many names to refer to the discipline that investigates alternative futures. futures studies, foresight, futures literacy, futures thinking, anticipation, futurism, futurology, and many others. Future studies that can also be referred to as future science seeks to analyze resources, models, and reasons of a subject's change or stability in order to develop and expand the scope of foresight, and consider different options and possibilities. Also, futures study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews that underlie them. It can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and parallel to the field of history. Futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social, technological advancement, and other environmental trends. This research aims to future-studying in public libraries and its role in their development and progress with an emphasis on the libraries covered by Iran Public Libraries Foundation.

It is among future research methods, scenario planning, road map, Landscape, modeling, simulation and Delphi. The method of research in this research is surveying and descriptive using interview and questionnaire through Delphi approach. A questionnaire was first used to collect data, and then face-to-face interviews were used with 11 people for some issues and to complete the opinions. The questionnaire was distributed among the statistical population of the research in three periods. Regarding determining the validity of the research tool, the problems in the questionnaire were identified and resolved by using the opinion of a number of experts in the field of information science. Sampling was done based on the structure of the Delphi method and data analysis was done. The reliability of the research tool was determined by Cronbach's alpha test at 0.810.

Using the gained results from interviewee's findings, a series of elements which are effective on library and especially development are extracted such as: internet, digitalization, updating the library system, using librarians and experts, economic conditions, virtual reference services, serials and open access, Mass media and social networks, and Mobile phone technology. The experts believed that the presence of librarians, both now and in the future, is important and that professional librarians should also be used.

By analyzing technological evolutions in libraries, we conclude that in future libraries, materials and informational contents in library are going toward decreasing the volume and weight. From consequence of interviewees' ideas as well as variation trend in type of libraries' resources, it can be predicted that paper resources will remain persistent beside electronic resources and each of the resources will keep its own certain users. Mostly, in this period, printed or digital resources will coexist and the libraries will be conducted based on two-type materials. For comprehensive development in public libraries, it is necessary to pay attention to all the mentioned components.