Prediction of changes in Temperature-Humidity index in the coming decades according to the climate change phenomenon based on radiative forcing scenarios in a dry climate

One of the biggest environmental challenges of the 21st century is the phenomenon of climate change and global warming, which can cause numerous health problems. One significant health issue associated with climate change is the increase in the prevalence of heat stress, particularly in occupational encounters in hot outdoor environments. So this study aimed to predict and model temperature and humidity indices in the coming decades in a dry climate.

Methods & Materials: 

This study obtained daily atmospheric parameters, including minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity of Kerman station, representing a dry climate, for a period of 30 years (1965 to 2005) from the meteorological organization. Modeling of these parameters and calculation of the Temperature and Humidity Index (THI) were performed using the atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM2-ES and the CORDEX dynamic microscaler model. Three different radiative forcing scenarios, including optimistic (RCP 2.6), intermediate (RCP 4.5), and pessimistic (RCP 8.5), were considered for the coming decades (three 30-year periods from 2011 to 2099).
Ethical Considerations: The Ethics Committe of Iran University of Medical Sciences (IUMS) approved the present study (Code: IR.IUMS.REC.1400.020).

The results of the study showed an increasing trend for minimum and maximum temperature parameters in all three time periods using the three scenarios considered. Moreover, the increase in temperature in the decades of 2099-2071 was more pronounced compared to the previous decades. The results also demonstrated an increasing trend in the THI index based on all three scenarios. The average results obtained using these scenarios showed an increase of 2.11, 2.53, and 3.3 degrees Celsius, respectively, in this index until the end of the last century compared to the base decades.

Overall, the increase in temperature and the investigated THI index in the studied station, based on all three scenarios, will lead to changes in thermal comfort. Higher levels of thermal discomfort will not only occur in hot months and seasons but also in other seasons. Therefore, proper planning should be implemented to address the adverse effects of climate change on people's health.