Future research of tension and water crisis in Iran

Water is considered as one of the factors affecting political and security crises within countries, relations between governments and one of the most important challenges of the current century. The global and regional water shortage crisis has shaped certain political and economic tendencies in international relations. This issue and its consequences will have a significant impact on Iran's international relations with neighboring countries and will give special importance to the role of water resources management. Therefore, water resource management will play an important role in reducing water tension and establishing stable security in different geographical regions of Iran.

The present research, with a prospective research approach and a descriptive method, seeks to analyze water crisis indicators (rainfall, underground and surface water) using monthly rainfall, piezometric and hydrometric data in the central plateau of Iran. The zoning map of the crisis levels was prepared in GIS software based on the spatial data of the stations, and after that, the map of the state of tension and unrest in different regions of the central plateau basin of Iran was prepared for the next ten years.

The indicators of water degradation in the catchment area of ​​the Central Plateau are classified as lower than normal and at critical levels. The signs of crisis have started with the tension and unrest of the last few years in Yazd and Isfahan provinces, and the forecast of the long-term trend of the next ten years in the Drinc software shows a decrease in the area of ​​level 2 stress from 55% to 46% in the next 10 years and an increase in the area of ​​level 3 stress. It is from 12% to 20% in the next ten years and the scope of unrest and tension will extend from Isfahan and Yazd provinces to Tehran and Alborz provinces.

The stress of water resources in the next ten years scenario of the Central Plateau catchment area shows the expansion of areas with severe and very severe stress levels, and this means that in the next 10 years, based on the climate change simulation scenario, the situation of water resources management will be more critical and the spread of stress It will progress from levels with lower stress to levels with severe stress and these areas (Tehran and Alborz provinces) will experience water stress in terms of drinking, agriculture and industry.