Assessing the viability measures of the Markhoz goat population in its breeding region

This study aimed to explore the current status and assess the risks faced by the Markhoz goat population in its breeding region. To achieve this objective, we gathered census data, population distribution information, and biological parameters, focusing on three key criteria: geographic, demographic, and genetic. We employed four risk assessment systems from reputable entities, namely the World Food Organization (FAO), the European Union (EU), the European Association of Livestock Products (EAAP), and private organizations (NGOs). In addition, we used Vortex version 10.5.5 to simulate past population dynamics, specifically investigating genetic changes. According to the latest census, 1297 goats were distributed across the primary region (50%), other areas (7%), and stations (43%). Notably, the region dedicated to goat breeding has experienced a significant reduction in size over recent years. Presently, 88% of the goat population in the region is concentrated within a circle with a radius of fewer than 6 kilometers in Armardeh, Baneh. The decline in population size, as well as breeding males and females in the Markhoz goat's breeding region, has led to a reduction in effective population size and an increase in the rate of inbreeding in recent years. Inbreeding in the last year of investigation was calculated at 0.1049, and its rate (∆F) had reached more than 0.5% in each generation since 2015. Our study's findings indicate that across all assessment systems and considering demographic, geographic, and genetic criteria, the Markhoz goat breed is currently at risk of extinction in its breeding region.