Shadow Banking and Risk: the Case of Iran

Banks and financial institutions face various risks. The effective management of these risks plays a vital role in the efficiency and effectiveness of these banks. One of these risks is shadow banking in the financial institutions. This paper conducts the research to discuss the effects of shadow banks on banking risk. The research problem of the paper is how the operations of Iranian state banks affects risk and which policy should be used. We analysis this risk with a selection of state banks from 2016 to 2022. Capital structure, asset quality, liquidity, capital adequacy and banks' size are considered as explanatory and control variables. We used the ratio of off-balance sheet items to total asset, bank claims from subsidiaries and bank investment in securities as the indicators of shadow banking respectively in three models estimation of the effects of shadow banking on risk based on Panel Data. The results show that shadow banking, with the three indicators which used, significantly increase the risk, while capital structure offset part of such an effect. In other words, increasing the ratio of off-balance sheet items to assets, bank claims from subsidiaries and bank investment in securities leads to higher risk. However, a perfect capital structure can offset part of increasing effect of shadow banking on the risk. Results also indicate an increase in asset quality, liquidity, and capital adequacy lead to a decrease in the risk, while expansion of banks' size increase the risk.