Land use/cover change modeling with emphasis on built-up land growth with the help of CA-Markov model integration and multi-criteria decision analysis based on GIS. (Case study: Aras River watershed)

In recent years, global population growth and urban expansion have led to significant land use and cover changes. These changes have numerous detrimental consequences, such as increasing surface temperatures, deforestation, desertification, degradation of ecosystem services, biodiversity loss, and threats to food security. Therefore, monitoring and modeling these changes are essential for optimal land management and sustainable utilization of natural resources. Given that the Aras River Basin has undergone significant transformations over time, particularly in built-up land developments, this research focuses on modeling land use/land cover changes in this area.                  

Initially, land use maps for the region were extracted for the years 2000 and 2020 from the Globeland30 project of the China National Geomatics Center. Subsequently, two maps were prepared to illustrate the potential growth of built-up land based on a land development scenario. This was achieved using advanced decision-making analysis methods based on GIS, including BWM and MEREC. Finally, these two maps, along with the land use maps, were combined to form the input for the CA-Markov model. The modeling process was carried out twice: once using the BWM + CA-Markov combination, and again using the CA-Markov + MEREC combination for the year 2040. 

The examination of the results demonstrated that in the output of the combined BWM + CA-Markov model, the extent of built-up land increased from 603 square kilometers in 2020 to over 930 square kilometers in 2040. Meanwhile, this figure was approximately 829 square kilometers in the output of the MEREC + CA-Markov model. Furthermore, the final results obtained from the intersection of these combined models also indicated an increase in the extent of this land from 603 square kilometers in 2020 to 930 square kilometers in 2040.

The continuous growth of built-up land in this basin can lead to the destruction of environmental resources and pose threats to ecosystems. The findings of this study provide relevant managers with valuable insights for optimal management of future conditions and the provision of necessary infrastructure.