Modeling and forecasting the behavior of the annual temperature of Urmia using the Box-Jenkins model and its relationship with the general circulation of the region's atmosphere

In this research, in order to reveal possible climate changes, the time series of annual average temperature of Urmia synoptic station during the statistical period of 1951-2017 was studied. Box-Jenkins prediction model (integrated auto-regressive and moving average model) was used to find the change model and predict the behavior of the time series. After fitting different models, R2, Akaike information criterion (AIC), regression standard error (SEE) and the Schwartz-Bayesin criterion (BIC) were measured to select the optimal model. The results showed that the time series model ARIMA (2,2) (1,0) has better results compared to other models and the trend of time series changes of this model has less error. After choosing the best model, the average annual temperature values for the next 13 years were predicted using it. The temperature prediction was done using this model with a good fit and the correlation between the actual and fitted values was around 82%. After ensuring the correctness of the forecast, the time series until 2030 was estimated. The forecast of the model indicates a mild temperature increase in the coming years with an upward linear trend. The study of the general circulation of the atmosphere of the region by drawing and analyzing the difference maps for the parameters of geopotential height of 500 hpa, relative rotation of 500 hpa, vertical velocity of the atmosphere (Omega) and air temperature on the surface of the earth indicates the strengthening of the stability of the atmosphere as well as the increase in temperature. The air of Urmia city is 0.4 degrees Celsius compared to the past, which confirms the results of the Box-Jenkins model.