Evaluation of Age-sex Data from Population Censuses in the Provinces of Iran

Considering the centrality of age and sex in determining population changes, it is crucial to study age-sex reports in population censuses in data evaluation process. In this study, the age-sex distributions of Iran’s population at both national and provincial levels 2016 over the past four censuses from 1996 to 2016 using various demographic indicators such as population pyramids, age ratios, sex ratios, the United Nations combined index, as well as Whipple’s and Myers’ indices were examined. The analysis of index values across national and most of provinces reveals that the accuracy of the 2006 census is generally lower compared to the other three censuses. The census accuracy from 1996 to 2006 declined and from 2006 to 2016 was improved. However, there is a decreasing trend toward differences in the accuracy of data between genders, and in the age-sex distribution among provinces, indicating a convergence over the period under review. Provinces of Gilan, Mazandaran, Isfahan and East Azerbaijan consistently demonstrated the highest accuracy in most indicators, while provinces of Hormozgan, Kohgiluyeh-BoyerAhmad, Ilam, Kerman, Qom, Bushehr, and Sistan and Baluchistan exhibited the lowest accuracy. These findings contradict other studies noting lower accuracy for the 2011 census and common evaluation indicators do not support such a conclusion at either the national or provincial levels.  Regarding population dynamic, traditional evaluation methods are insufficient, and more accurate approaches should be used for studying and evaluating census data.