نشریه مطالعات جمعیتی
سال هشتم شماره 2 (پیاپی 16، پاییز و زمستان 1401)

A correct understanding of the employment and unemployment situation and the structure of the labour force requires having sufficient, accurate and up-to-date statistics, using the latest resolutions and guidelines prescribed by the International Labour Organization (ILO). These standards and definitions, which are stipulated in the resolutions of the International Conferences of Labour Statisticians (ICLS), play a fundamental role in the processes of producing basic data with international comparability in each country. Recent changes in statistical standards at the international level have had a major impact on the ability to compare data over time and among countries. The purpose of this research is to investigate these changes. Although the standard of one hour of work has been established as a job in international standards, there are several key differences between the standards introduced by the 19th ICLS and those adopted in 1982 by the 13th ICLS. The most obvious impact arises from the change in the employment definition. With the introduction of new standards in the 19th ICLS, persons producing goods mainly for their own use, do voluntary work or unpaid internships, are not considered employed. In the case of unemployment, some people who were previously considered employed under the old standards (subsistence food producers without employment) are considered unemployed if they are seeking for and available for work. As such, the application of the latest standards typically results in substantially lower employment statistics in countries with high levels of subsistence farming and causes an increase in the level of unemployment staistics. In regard to the terminology changes, it is recommended to replace the term "labour force" instead of "economically /currently active population" and the term “Outside labour force" instead of "economically inactive population".

A crucial aspect of economic growth intricately linked to demographic changes, particularly age structure, is labor productivity which in turn, is directly influenced by the level of investment in education and health. This article investigates the level and trends of human capital investment in urban Iran and its association with demographic shifts. The National Transfer Accounts methodology was employed to construct private and public education and health consumption age profiles. The Lee-Carter method was then applied to model these per capita rates over time. Our findings reveal that government expenditure on education increased in the early 2010s. However, university expenses primarily remain the responsibility of households. Comparing government and household investments in health and education, we observed that while the government has predominantly focused on education expenses, particularly in recent years, the majority of children's health expenses are borne by households. An inter-cohort comparison further demonstrates that, unlike older cohorts where education costs were primarily borne by households; newer cohorts experience a greater government contribution. Consequently, the findings from the cohort analysis largely corroborate those from the cross-sectional analysis.

The distinct age pattern of deaths caused by traffic accidents compared to other major causes of mortality in the country has led to a significant impact of these types of deaths on years of life lost prematurely. Therefore, in this study, provincial differences in years of potential productive life lost (YPPLL) due to traffic accidents were calculated at both the national and provincial levels in 2021. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (2021). Then, using the standard method, years of potential life lost (YPLL) and YPPLL were calculated. The findings reveal that the values of these two indicators in the country and for both genders are higher than the global average. Additionally, for both indicators, there are significant differences at the provincial level of the country. The provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan, Fars, and Hormozgan had the highest rates, while the provinces of Tehran and Alborz had the lowest rates of YPLL and YPPLL in the country. The results of the study underscore the importance of addressing provincial differences in the premature death index due to traffic accidents as a potential for reducing these deaths and ultimately increasing life expectancy at birth.

The establishment of vital events registration system and awareness of the number and trend of mortality across various age groups have been one of the most important and effective strategies for societies to increase the life expectancy of their citizens. However, the coverage and content deficiencies of registration statistics in many developing countries have encouraged demography specialists to invent indirect methods for estimating demographic indicators. These methods, developed since the late 1950s, have been particularly fruitful in the field of mortality. In this study, an attempt was made to estimate survival probabilities and life expectancy for Iranian men and women during the census years 1966-2016 using the indirect widowhood technique, and to evaluate the effectiveness of this method in the context of the statistics obtained from the census. The results showed that the survival probabilities and life expectancy figures obtained through the widowhood technique, especially for women, tend to be overestimated. The reasons for this overestimation can be found in the unavailability of widowhood technique assumptions in the statistics obtained from the census in Iran and also in the possible inconsistency of the age pattern of death in Iran with the life tables of the model used in this study (Coale and Demeney tables - Western model). It is suggested to test the efficiency of the widowhood technique using sample survey data (where questions appropriate to the widowhood technique are included) and that the results be compared with those from this study.

This article examines the effect of net migration on Iran's population's age distribution until 2041 in. Using demographic models and methods along with data from recent census decades, the changes in demographic indicators under various migration scenarios are analyzed. The findings indicates that Iran's net migration rate in the period from 2011 to 2016 was around -1.9 per 1,000 annually. Based on the migration scenarios of this study, Iran’s net migration rate may fluctuate between 0 and -4 per 1,000. If the negative net migration balance increases and reaches -4 per 1,000 by 2041, the median age of the population will rise from 40 to 46 years, and the aging index will increase from 35 to 138 elderly individuals per 100 young people. Conversely, in the scenario of a reduction in the negative net migration and balance to zero by 2041, the median age will remain approximately 40 years, while the aging index will increase to 75 elderly individuals per 100 young people. The findings reveal that the pattern of changes in the Iran's net migration can significantly influence the dynamics of population rejuvenation, aging trends, and the pattern of shifts in the age structure pyramid. Rational and scientific policies to mitigate the negative net migration balance could help preserve human capital, enhance fertility rates, and slow the pace of population aging. Developing rational and evidence-based policies to reduce Iran’s emigration not only ensures the retention of the nation’s human capitals but also facilitates the restoration of the population’s age structure, the improvement of fertility levels, and efforts to counteract population aging.

Statistical evidence indicates a high rate of internal migration in Iran and a shift in the pattern of these migrations toward an increase in inter-provincial migration in recent years. The aim of this study is to analyze the changes, patterns, effectiveness and routes of inter-provincial migration in the country during the period 2006-2016. For this purpose, the secondary analysis method of migration data from 31 provinces of the country has been used. The findings show that during the mentioned periods, some provinces have consistently been migrant-sending, while some have been migrant-receiving. The provinces of Yazd, Alborz, and Semnan have had the highest ratio of immigration to emigration. The migration reception and sendingof provinces have been affected by their level of development. During the studied periods, the intensity of migration in the spatial redistribution of the population has been higher in the western, central, and southeastern provinces and lower in the eastern provinces of the country. The effect of inter-provincial migration on population redistribution has also increased to some extent. During the period 2006-2011, the volume of migration to the capital decreased, and the volume of migration to short distances and to regional metropolises increased, while during the period 2011-2012, the opposite occurred. In both periods, the role of regional metropolitan provinces in attracting migrants from neighboring provinces (such as Khorasan Razavi Province in attracting immigrants from North Khorasan, South Khorasan, Sistan and Baluchestan, etc.) is evident. Tehran Province and its neighboring provinces with shorter distance dimensions have been the destinations for most interprovincial migrations. The results show that the flow of interprovincial migration in the country has been strongly influenced by government strategies and policies in the provinces, and this has played a significant role in shaping the spatial redistribution of the population in the country.

The current research aims to sociologically explain the tendency of Iranian immigrants to establish social relations in Germany. In this article, various theoretical approaches have been used, with the most important being the theory of adaptation of immigrants. The research is a cross-sectional study that was conducted on 280 Iranian immigrants aged 18 and over living in the three provinces of Baden-Württemberg, North Rhine- Westphalia and Hesse. For this purpose, purposeful and available chain sampling method and a researcher-made questionnaire were used. To test the research hypotheses, the reliability of the questionnaire was measured using Cronbach's alpha (generational difference 0.82, commitment to moral and religious principles 0.86, educational limitations 0.81, interpersonal trust 0.89, importance of length of stay 0.86, acceptance of host country norms 0.77, role of social media usage 0.91 and the desire for engaging in social relations 0.83). The regression results showed that the variables of importance of length of stay, interpersonal trust, commitment to moral and religious principles, and marital status had a significant relationship with the Iranian immigrants’ tendency to establish social relations with each other. In real and adjusted terms, 17% of the variance of Iranian immigrants’ tendency to establish social relationships are explained and predicted by independent variables. Holding cultural  events, taking advantage of lived experiences, and planning and policymaking of   cultural centers in order to strengthen the foundations of altruism and cooperation in the host society can be effective ways to solve some of the problems of Iranian immigrants.

Iran's population will soon enter advanced stages of ageing. Therefore, alongside efforts to increase the level of childbearing, forward-looking initiatives must be made in order to adjust the issues and problems and improve the well-being of the elderly. This research, by using the survey –based methodology   and structured questionnaire and interview tools, is trying to gain a proper understanding of the challenges, interests, emerging needs and expectations of the elderly population and related factors in the Selseleh county, Lorestan provincein Iran. The statistical population comprises individuals aged above 60 in this county in 2022 and the sample size was determined to be 1300 participants. According to the findings, the elderly of Selseleh county, contrary to stereotypes and myths, possess significant abilities and interests. However, they also face multiple constraints, with 95% reporting at least one specific problem. Inadequate income, feeling of helpless in providing for the future, high healthcare costs, and chronic illnesses are some of the key problems of these elderly population. Regarding their needs and expectations, it is mainly reported neglect from both their children and the relevant authorities. In the surrounding villages, addressing the livelihood and support needs of the elderly is a higher priority, while for the urban elderly residents, providing healthcare costs and facilitating opportunities for self-actualization are of greater importance. It seems that the fully implementatiing the strategies of the National Plan for the Elderly and realizing the strategies for the elderly support will be critically necessary, useful and effective.

This research is a secondary analysis based on data from the World Values Survey (2020), examining the factors influencing value and attitudinal distinctions within the Iranian family institution. The study aims to identify and analyze patterns of change in attitudes and beliefs related to family, sexual relationships, domestic violence, gender roles, and social responsibilities in Iranian society. The results indicate that social attitudes in Iran are changing under the influence of factors such as age, gender, economic status, and cultural shifts. The majority of respondents (71.9%) oppose premarital sexual relationships, but generational gaps and positive changes are observed regarding abortion and divorce. Additionally, society is increasingly opposed to violence against women and children. Data analysis reveals that individuals with university education and urban residents hold more modern attitudes towards social issues. Furthermore, economic status influences attitudes; with increasing income, acceptance of abortion and divorce increases. These changes are particularly evident in younger generations and among individuals with better economic standing. These findings underscore the need for policymakers and social planners to pay attention to these changes and adopt approaches appropriate to the evolving society.

This article examines the decision-making framework for separation and divorce among Tehran residents from the perspective of life course theory. The research method used in this study is survey-based, using a questionnaire to collect data. The statistical population includes all eligible women and men living in Tehran in 2022, and the sample size is 630 eligible residents of Tehran (men and women) who were randomly selected from each of the 22 districts of Tehran. To clarify the subject matter, theories of marriage, roles and role strain were used. The results show that the decision to separate or divorce is influenced by three stages of a couple's life cycle; in the first stage of family life, which is the stage of acquaintance and compatibility of the couple (38%), the second stage, which is the middle stage of family life, characterized by the stability of married life (28%), and the final stage of the life cycle of married life, characterized by the inconsistent requirements of life and the emergence of the estrangement process (30%), all have an impact on the couple's decision to separate.