Using different climate scenarios to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of shabout fish (Arabibarbus grypus, Heckel, 1843)

Climate change, as one of the most important threats ahead, has significant effects on biodiversity and natural ecosystems. In the present study, using species distribution modeling (SDM) the effects of climate change on the spread and distribution of the Shabout fish species (Arabibarbus grypus, Heckel, 1843) was investigated. in terms of SDM, an ensemble model by the Biomod2 package with six different algorithms for the present time and also under two-time series of 2070 and 2090 with two models Optimistic (SSP 126) and pessimistic (SSP 585) were used for a future time. In addition, eight climatic, topographic, and human variables were used to build the model. The results showed that the prediction performance of the model based on three parameters AUC, TSS, and KAPPA ranged from very good to excellent ≤0.77. The most important parameters affecting the distribution of shirbat species were the parameters of the minimum temperature of the coldest month of the year (Bio 6), total annual rainfall (Bio 12), and human footprints. Also, the range of distribution of the studied species in both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the years 2070 and 2090 will face a significant decrease. The effects of climate change on the shabout species have clearly shown that the species have different responses to climate change, and these responses provide appropriate and specific management strategies for each species.