Scenario Planning as a Policy Laboratory Method: A Case Study of the Institutional Structure of Science and Technology Policy in Iran

This study aims to develop scenario planning as a method for policy laboratories. The institutional structure of science and technology policy in Iran was selected as the case study, with in-depth, semi-structured interviews conducted with 20 experts and informants in Iranian science and technology policy. Schwartz’s eight-step scenario planning method was applied. Based on this, two key uncertainties—1) Structure (open/closed) and 2) Rules of Conduct (collaborative participation vs. contentious dispute)—were identified, leading to four scenarios: 1) Collaborative Policy Network, 2) Government System, 3) Obligation-Relief Approach, and 4) Island Structure. The outcomes of each scenario were evaluated, and the most desirable scenario, the Collaborative Policy Network, was selected. This study demonstrates that scenario planning, a widely used method in foresight studies, can also function as a policy laboratory by assessing the potential consequences of a policy. It is recommended that science and technology policymakers evaluate policy outcomes in a policy laboratory through methods like scenario planning before implementing them broadly and subjecting them to public trial and error.