Examining the Changes in Cancer Mortality Patterns and Their Impact on Life Expectancy in Iran (2000-2019)

For over a decade, cancer has emerged as the second leading cause of death among Iranians, coinciding with a rise in cancer-related fatalities. This study examines the changes in the incidence and patterns of cancer-related deaths in Iran and their impact on life expectancy at birth.

This study utilized data on total mortality and cancer-related mortality in Iran, categorized by age and gender, for the years 2000 and 2019, sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. After age- and sex-specific death rates using the life table technique, life expectancy at birth was determined for all ages in years 2000 and 2019. Subsequently, the Arriaga decomposition technique was employed to assess the contribution of cancer to changes in life expectancy.

The proportion of cancer-related deaths among men and women in the country increased from 2000 to 2019 across all age groups and both sexes. For both men and women, the contribution of cancer deaths to changes in life expectancy was approximately -0.1. Among all cancer types, stomach cancer (0/04 year) has had the most favorable impact on life expectancy. Conversely, lung cancer has been a significant factor contributing to reduced life expectancy in Iran, particularly among middle-aged and older individuals.

Considering the changes in the age structure of the population in Iran, it is expected that the trend of rising cancer-related deaths will persist. Therefore, cancer, as a significant component of non-communicable diseases, poses a critical health challenge in Iran and is expected to become increasingly prominent in the coming decades, which should be considered comprehensively.