Extinction probability of the Karakul sheep breed in Iran using simulation of population dynamics

This research aims to investigate the current status and estimate the extinction probability of the endangered Karakul sheep breed in Iran. To achieve this, census data and required parameters were collected from Karakul sheep flocks and available resources during project implementation. Two scenarios of past and future population dynamics assuming the continuation of the existing conditions within the Karakul sheep habitat were simulated using the Population Viability Analysis (PVA) method and VORTEX version 10.5.6. By employing the gathered biological parameters and assumptions, the simulation of past population dynamics closely replicated actual historical trends. Conversely, the simulation of future population dynamics indicated that, under current conditions, the trend of increasing inbreeding and decreasing genetic diversity within the studied population is likely to persist. The extinction probability of the Karakul sheep breed could become a reality as early as 1438, with the estimated mean time to the first extinction of this breed being 51.08 ± 4.47 years. Sensitivity testing revealed that factors such as the excessive harvest of adult ewes beyond the usual annual harvest, the frequency of feed limitations, and the use of other breeds in mating exert the most significant influence on future population viability measures, primarily due to economic considerations.