Examining Factors Affecting on the Misery Index in Iran

The misery index is known as one of the measures of economic well-being, and misery increasing index in a country means the deterioration of the economic and social welfare of the people of that country. Therefore, the worsening of the misery index, in adding to the economic effects, can bring many cultural and social consequences, so the identification and evaluation of macroeconomic factors affecting this index should be considered by planners and policy makers. Therefore, the main goal of this research is to investigate the factors affecting the misery index during the period of spring 2011 to summer 2023. In the present study, the framework of Shrestha and Bhatta (2018) and Fomby (1998), which helps a lot in choosing appropriate methods, has been used to analyze time series data. The results show that some variables are stationary and others are Cointegration of the first order, and based on the framework of Shrestha and Bhatta (2018), the Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Model should be estimated. The model estimation results show the positive effect of the uncertainty index on the misery index in the long term. Also, the effect of the exchange rate variables in the free market and the participation rate on the poverty index is positive, and the labor productivity variable has a negative effect on the poverty index. The results of this study can be used in such a way that in addition to the necessity of controlling exchange rate fluctuations, attention to the correct announcement of applied policies and the timely release of economic information that leads to the reduction of economic policy uncertainty can help to reduce the misery index.