Future Scenarios of Audio Media in Iran

Audio media is one of the basic components of countrys' media sphere. In the future, this media sphere and, accordingly, the audio media, will be exposed to many uncertainties and ambiguities related to technological developments and cultural, social, political and economic changes. The goal of future research is to clarify the future and increase human knowledge and understanding of it. This research has been carried out with the aim of compiling the future scenario of audio media. The research was conducted based on the theory of media convergence using scenario planning method. The sample size was selected purposefully and the results were obtained based on categories extracted from documentary studies, theoretical foundations and field study. Based on the findings of the research, 81 factors and components were identified from the analysis of the environment; Also, 17 effective drivers and 6 key uncertainties were identified after examining discussion. The ranking of these factors was done according to the opinion of experts, based on the two criteria of "importance" and "uncertainty", and based on the two key uncertainties with the highest weight, i.e. "technology" and "volume of audio content consumption", the matrix of scenarios was formed and Four scenarios of "Smart Radio", "I am the user", "Mr. Broadcaster" and "Coexistence with technology" were developed. The results showed that the smart radio scenario can be considered as a favorable scenario. At the end, according to each identified scenario, practical solutions are presented that will help the effective policy makers and decision makers of IRIB radio.