Investigating the Evolution of Iran’s Agricultural Employment in the Fifth and Sixth Development Plans

Iran's economic sectors were affected by a set of external and internal factors during the Fifth and Sixth Development Plans (2011-2023) with different intensity and scope. Due to the withdrawal of the United States of America from the JCPOA agreement in 2018 and the return and continuation of economic sanctions in 2018-2023, along with the outbreak of Covid-19 in 2019 and 2021 and climate changes in many years over 2011-2023, Iran’s performance of the agricultural sector has faced serious challenges during this period. The dependence of a part of agricultural employment on the state of production (especially in the harvesting stage) has caused changes in the agricultural employment over the same period.

This study aimed at investigating the changes in agricultural employment by province, gender and regions in the IRI Fifth and Sixth Development Plans (2011-2023). It was conducted in a library method and the study results were analyzed in a descriptive manner. The study addressed employment in the agricultural sector; and the relevant statistical population was also considered at three levels of province, gender (women and men engaged in agriculture) and region (urban and rural).

The study results showed that according to SPEI, Iran's agricultural sector has experienced different degrees of climatic changes in the period of 2011-2023; the average seasonal growth rate of the agricultural employment of Iranian total, women and men during the studied period was estimated -0.7, -4 and 0.1 percent, respectively; there has been a decrease in the agricultural employment nationwide (with the exception of 8 provinces); between 2011 and 2023, the decrease in the employment of women in Iran's agriculture (311 thousand people) was more than the total decrease in the country's agricultural employment (288 thousand people); the changes in Iran's agricultural employment during this period have led to the loss of rural agricultural employment (624 thousand people decrease and -1.9 percent annual growth) and to the benefit of urban agricultural employment (336 thousand people increase and 3.3 percent annual growth). Also, the low or negative growth rate of agricultural employment in the rural areas of the country in the last decade indicates the beginning of a large-scale transformation in rural employment. The low share of women's employment in agricultural employment (about 19 percent), to a large extent, confirms the masculinity of agricultural activities in Iran.

Conclusion and Suggestions:

 Usually, in the process of economic growth, the share of direct agricultural employment decreases. Iran's agricultural employment rate has undergone several fluctuations over recent years. The decrease in the amount of agricultural employment in rural areas of Iran, along with the decrease in the women’s agricultural employment over recent years, indicates the beginning of certain changes in the structure of agricultural employment in Iran. The quality of the labor force leaving Iran's agricultural sector is uncertain. These developments can simultaneously affect the growth of the added value of the agricultural sector and the welfare level of rural households. In order to manage the consequences of climate change and the withdrawal of some of the labor force from the agricultural sector, it is necessary to establish purposively a climate change crisis headquarters in the Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (MAJ). This requires policymaking in the cropping patterns to stabilize existing employment, support farmers affected by the climate change, and model the success of provinces in increasing direct agricultural employment.