Democratization in the Middle East and Iran

Continued strength on the part of the state and relative weakness and political dependence on the part of society have so far proven insurmountable obstacles to democratization in the Middle East. Consequently, none of the three broad patterns of democratization—democratization through civil society, through the deliberate retreat of authoritarian leaders, and because of the emergence of fissures within the once-cohesive ruling elite—have appeared in the region on a wide scale, with the possible exceptions of Turkey and Lebanon. In Iran, during the first term in office of President Khatami, it appeared that the state’s lack of institutional and ideological cohesion would usher in a democratization process. Such was not the case, however, and the cracks within the ruling establishment appear to have disappeared with the election to the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Nevertheless, if the new President makes good on his campaign promises of facilitating economic growth and development, and by doing so enhances the economic position and independence of the middle classes, he may unwittingly pave the way for turning them into agents of democratization by prompting them to demand greater economic and political accountability and representation.