Forecasting Price of Some Crop Products in Fars Province: Application of Artificial Neural Network

In this study wholesale prices of selected crops, namely, tomato, onion and potatoes in Fars province were predicted for various time horizons by using common methods of forecasting and artificial neural networks (ANN). Monthly data from September 1998 to June 2005 period were obtained from Ministry of Jihad-e Agriculture. For comparing different methods data selected from September 1998 to December 2004 were utilized, and latest six - month data were mainly used to monitor the power of prediction. The MAE, MSE and MAPE criteria were used for comparing the ability of different forecasting methods. Results of this study showed that ANN had the lowest error in prediction of prices for one - to three - month periods, but for six - month prediction, all forecasting methods were not statistically different.