Recently, imbalances in the electricity production and consumption in Iran, have caused critical situations at specific times of the year; meanwhile, the residential sector, with a 51 percent share, is the main reason for peak demand crisis. According to the international experiences, it can be hoped that by revising the residential electricity tariff structure, consumption pattern in this sector would be modified. Therefore in this study, according to the country’s ongoing projects and infrastructures, a new electricity tariff structure which is a combination of time-of-use and maximum-demand pricing, has been proposed. In the second part of this study, by developing an agent-based model and applying this tariff to residential consumers, their consumption behavior in peak hours is simulated. The results of these simulations, showed that by offering this tariff to consumers, the average demand of peak-hours can be reduced by 6.15 percent.

Poultry is now one of the largest industry in Khorasan Razavi province and chicken meat has an important role in household food needs. Developing appropriate studies that lead to strategies for handling poultry products to fulfil consumers’ demand have become quite a challenging issue especially due to crisis situation. Supply chain system in this paper means a chain of processes from the rearing farm to the final consumer of the finished product and provide useful operational analysis of system behaviors for managing supply chain under demand uncertainties and production disruptions.
In this paper, a system dynamics model is applied for studying the behavior of the chicken meat supply chain threatened by bird flu, demand fluctuation and Government (State Livestock Affairs Logistics) intervention under the Vensim environment. The model is an extended version of real-life practice which involves producers, consumers and government. A causal loop diagram used to show how interrelated variables affect one another and connect together. This important diagram can handle assumptions regarding facing various calamities and disaster which is an integral part of the poultry industry. This dynamic model development can track possible disasters in time to prepare facing them. To cover more possibility, we propose three scenarios of different levels for demand and present of loss bird. To find out the most efficient rearing rate in crisis situation, demand fluctuation and loss bird rate are considered simultaneously in scenarios. Importance of chicken meat strategic reserve for Norouz lead us to impose a constraint for government purchasing and expenditure during the last month of simulation. Operations during a 120 days are simulated and a what-if analysis performed to study the model stability under uncertainty environment.
As a starting position no bird losses rate and demand problems included and supply chain fills all of demands without purchase chicken meat from external markets. The equilibrium was reached when the available live chicken level equals to 382 (ton/day). Results showed that without changing demand levels for achieving supply chain stability, the system need to import chicken meat for entire of the crisis period and government intervenes in market to ensure remunerative prices for producers and affordable prices for consumers. In sanitary crisis situation, decreasing demand can reduce the external purchases and unexpected costs but it decreases net income of producers simultaneously. In all scenarios external purchases and unexpected government purchasing are zero when the demand decreasing level is maximum. The simulation results showed that 10 percent of domestic farms affecting by Bird flu can increase the amount of external purchases up to 40 (ton/day) and give rise to unexpected government expenditures by 3360 (million Rial). It is evident from the model that slaughtering all reared chicken (available live chickens) after exactly 42 days can give number of benefits to the industry and profit is maximize in the simulated behavior for this scenario test. Reduction of rearing time can increase the amount of available chicken meat and net income of producer by 18 percent. In contrast, an increase of 15 days in rearing time can considerably reduce net income of producer by 30 percent. This means that a reduction of rearing time (standardization of poultry size and weight) can be a solution to improve poultry industry in Khorasan Razavi province. Income of producer is sensitive to the crisis and it is reduced up to 27 percent at peak of bird loss rate. Poultry producers are suffering from economic loss due to management, bird disease and transportation stress. These factors not only affects the quantity but also decrease the quality of chicken meat. On the other hand, 5 percent decrease in slaughterhouse and transportation mortalities immediately leads to an increase in supply chain incomes and the level of chicken meat inventory. According to the result, with management of chicken transportation, slaughter and rearing time, even in the worst scenario when the loss bird rate was maximum, it is possible to fulfil demand with domestic production capacity.
The supply chain is affected by endogenous and exogenous factors such as government intervention. Therefore an establishment of an integrated system between rearing farms, transport system, slaughterhouse and government purchasing can be helpful especially in crisis period. Poultry industry can integrate complete supply chain network so decision-makers can assist calculating the economic returns and reduce the risk. Moreover, producers will be able to compete with the other provinces and global markets as well as reducing their operational costs. Future research can focus on the different variables and study poultry wastes of processing by-products on the poultry industry in Khorasan Razavi province.

In terms of transportation, two main reasons for a crisis can be considered: a sudden drop in supply and an increase or a sudden change in demand. The sudden drop in supply occurs when the normal capacity of the network suddenly decreases due to natural or abusive factors. Increases or sudden changes in demand include changing demand for trips in general (total network demand), or part (part of the network demand), or changing demand (such as business trips, recreational activities, relief and emergency evacuation). Various approaches have been proposed in the literature to investigate the issue, in some of which they have investigated the effect of changes in supply and demand. In this paper, for evaluating crisis effect on intercity road, and changing travel patterns, the volume changes in the intercity roads of Kermanshah province have been evaluated. The results show that after the earthquake, the produced / attracted volume of the east of province has decreased. The earthquake-affected cities include the Salas-e Babaajani, Sarpol-e-Zahab and Qasr-e-Shirin which have increased up to 100% in comparing to volumes on a normal day. Key words: Crisis, Post- Crisis Situation, Demand Change, Intercity Roads, Kermanshah.

Growing natural disasters such as oods, earthquakes, war, and terrorist attacks have encouraged the government to plan for crisis response situations. As an important crisis management activity, the humanitarian supply chain can play a key role in saving lives, transporting victims to emergency centers, evacuating the homeless from the aected area, and meeting the needs of those in crisis. Also, considering coordination between the members of the supply chain and using suitable contracts can increase the eciency of helping injured people. In previous research, the quantity exibility contract (QFC) is rarely used in crisis situations. Therefore, this contract is investigated in this study. In the present study, a QFC is concluded between the internal supplier (manufacturer) and the relief organization. Quantity exibility contract provides a kind of coordination for inventory management by determining the number of orders between the relief organization and the internal manufacturer. In this study, the purpose of signing a quantity exibility contract between the relief organization and the supplier is not only to satisfy more demand points in the event of a disaster but also to reduce the unused items of relief items after the disaster attacks, and to create fewer shortages in the aected areas. The components of the supply chain of several products presented in this research include an internal supplier (manufacturer) and a foreign supplier, the relief organization, and the points of demand (aected areas). Due to the crisis, the demand for the aected areas has been considered inde nitely. The objectives of the model minimize total costs and time. To solve the proposed model, the augmented "-constraint method is used. The results of the studies show that the model is more sensitive to changes in demand, which makes it more necessary for planners in this eld to be more careful about the demand parameter.

This study aims at investigation of financial crisis of global economy on pistachio and saffron export. To get the objective of the study export demand of the selected crops were estimated using time series and panel data. Time period for the selected data are 1979-2005 and 1996-2005, respectively. Indices indicating the financial crisis are GNP of the importing countries and exchange rate volatility. Time series date showed a long-run relationship between export demand and its affecting factors. The findings of the study showed that financial crisis in global economy affects pistachio export at least in short-run and saffron export in short and long-run undesirably by reducing the importing country GNP. However, impact of the exchange rate volatility will depend on the type of the exchange rate and it is hard to explain its impact certainly. Measures like exchange deposit fund and export insurance was pointed out as polices.

The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of financial crisis on global economy of agriculture sector as well as raisin and date exports. Export demand of the selected crops was estimated using time series and panel data. GNP of the importing countries and exchange rate volatility were applied as indices indicating the global financial crisis. Time series data showed a long-run relationship between export demand and its affecting factors. Findings also showed the significant impact of the decrease in GNP of the importing countries in long run. Impact of this variable was also recognized important on demand estimated by panel data. Generally speaking, exchange rate volatility may affect agriculture sector and raisin export positively while in the case of date a negative impact was more evident.

Local media play an indispensable role in crisis management, including environmental crises. In our country, Khuzestan province has been facing a dust crisis for many years, but the local media have not performed well in this crisis. In this regard, this study was conducted with the aim of improving the performance of local media in the province in the face of a dust environmental crisis. Thus, the study was designed to achieve these solutions, and a semi-structured interview method was conducted to collect information. The statistical population of this study included experts in the field of media, crisis, and environment, and through targeted sampling, finally, 12 experts were selected and interviewed. By analyzing data through thematic analysis research method, 36 solutions in eight general categories including (human resources), (informing) & (policy-making), (educating) and (improving public participation), (demanding), (warning), (co-working and coordinating with authorities of crisis) were presented. By applying these strategies in local media planning, local media can improve their performance in environmental crises.

In our country water scarcity has come to be changed water crisis depended on a number of different factors. The major aim of this study is responding to the question of extend of government policies role in creating water crisis. In order to answer this question and based on collected studies and information, a hypothesis has been proposed. The hypothesis of this study suggests that the weakness of community orientation and also deficiency about the process of water policy lead to intensify water crisis in the country. Hypothesis testing of the study is based on experimental evident by means of meta-analysis method. The results of studies indicate that late proplemology, various inferences and definitions about water crisis, interrelationship between making decision and implementation stage and deficiency of water policy evaluation; all of mentioned factors cause inadequacy of solutions. Therefore the presented solutions and decisions about water crisis has led to more using of water resources, increasing water demand and finally water crisis has been intensified in our country.

As it has been confirmed by the international organizations responsible for water management, demand assessment is considered as the central core of processes for coping with crises and problems involved in this area as well as the prerequisite of sustainable planning and directing investment decisions. The present study aimed at driving demand functions and determining economic value for irrigation water in the production of major winter crops including wheat and barley and major summer crops including forage corn, grain corn and tomatoes in Seidan-Farough Plain, Marvdasht, Iran using profit maximization approach in 2010-2011. Derived demand functions for water confirmed a direct relationship between water demand and crop price, but an inverse relationship between water demand and water price as well as the price of other inputs. Own-price elasticities of water demand indicated that farmers’ response to price changes is different in water demand for winter crops and summer crops so that price policies, as a tool for optimal control of water use, are expected to be more successful for summer crops. Moreover, the estimated economic value of water in the production of summer crops is significantly higher than that of winter crops.

In recent years, incremental rate of electrical demands made many challenges for policy makers of power systems. Besides, due to economic crisis and environmental concerns about the air pollution, the new investments in thermal power generation units have experienced a noticeable reduction. For this reason, the power system operators should propose novel approaches to make a balance between incremental rate of electrical demand and decreased rate of generation expansion planning. In this paper, in order to hedge against the aforementioned problem, Demand Response Programs (DRPs) are proposed to control the electrical demands of heavy industries which consume a considerable part of electrical demands in peak durations. In this regard, two types of incentive-based demand response programs, including spinning reserve and curtailable load program, are addressed to decrease the need of new investments in power generation during peak hours. In order to show applicability and proficiency of the proposed approach, a case study containing 23 numbers of heavy industries of Khorasan Regional Electric Company (KREC) is addressed to participate in the proposed demand response programs in summer 2016.