فصلنامه مطالعات آینده پژوهی
پیاپی 2 (تابستان 1391)

Foresight is a systematic and collaborative process for compiling views about the future, which contributes to the development of medium-term or long-term outlooks for the purpose of making up-to-date decisions, and mobilizing shared measures. The main functions of foresight are as follows: orientation, recognizing newly developed trends, adapting objective to fulfill needs, supporting and promoting decisions and policies serving the preferences of the interested, promoting external Crucial Factors in the Efficacy of National Foresight relationships with those who benefit from the research or education, and determining priorities. Because of the importance of foresight and its role in the country’s macro plans, the success and efficacy of foresight process has been of great concern to Iran’s management authorities. The present article is written on the basis of varied studies and research on different countries, and seeks to develop a criterion for the success of a foresight activity, and discuss the factors influencing such a success. For this purpose, after discussing the importance, definition and objectives of foresight, foresight projects in different countries are studied to indentify the factors which have influenced the efficacy of foresight in these countries.

Human resources have been the most valuable assets of organizations and the driving force of human civilizations throughout history. However, the world is approaching a new stage of evolution and is taking on a new form. The present study seeks to develop methods for improving the feeling of security among human resources, and propose measures for establishing an ideal society based on Mahdavi ideal state, within the framework of Islamic-Iranian Model of Progress, through up-to-date methods of futures studies, especially strategic foresight in the analysis of soft technologies and institutional innovations, and back casting methods in portraying a bright outlook. Also, a conceptual model of the role of the feeling of security in human resources in a developed Islamic society will be presented. While most of the previous studies have examined the role of human resources in the fulfillment of long-term security, without having discussed the concept security among these resources, the present study innovatively deals with the feeling of security in the light of threats to values of society, and tries to analyze this issue on the basis of strategies of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and underline the role of human beings in the development of society and promotion of justice on the basis of Mahdavi ideal state.

An important step in conducting research is choosing an appropriate methodology, possible only through learning about different research methodologies, their advantages and disadvantages, and their similarities and differences. Since these methodologies have been classified differently in different resources, in the present article, attempt is made first to examine them briefly. Then, some common methodologies, their characteristics and their applications are studied. The important factors in the development of a methodology and the reasons for it acceptance or rejection will be discussed with regard to its importance. The methodologies popular in new fields of study, such as in future studies which employ methodologies from other fields and disciplines in a new way to achieve their objectives, are examined thoroughly in this study as well. In the future studies, methodologies which enhance researcher’s understanding of implied knowledge, metaphors, beliefs and methodologies of the subjects of the research, are particularly highlighted.

The present article seeks to examine and employ foresight in the scientific productions in biotechnology by 2025. The present study is an applied descriptive research. The bibliographic data is obtained from Engineering Village and Scopus which are among the most important databases for the studies of bibliometrics and scientometrics. Excel 2010 and EViews7 are used in the data analysis. The results of the present study show that in the field of nano drug delivery, scientific productions will be growing significantly from 2121 in 2010 to 11963 in 2025. In the field of biosensor, the scientific productions will fall slightly from 2584 in 2010 to 2580 in 2025, which is because of reaching a stable state in the growth of scientific production. In the biomaterial field, there will be a dramatic growth in the production of science, from 1631 in 2010 to 5693 in 2025, and in the field of bio-fuels the trend will be rising, from 1183 in 2010 to 346146 in 2025.

The political, cultural and historical situation of different regions throughout history has resulted in the establishment of different traditions in future studies. The present article aims to employ the integral method and integral cycle of knowledge, to develop a model for the production of knowledge, as one of the most important needs of the epistemological foundations of future studies. Since future studies can be regarded as an interdisciplinary science, and creating a favorable future seems to impractical without combing sciences, in the present study, the integral method is conceptualized through AQAL1 method, and its basic principles are defined. Because of the methodological comprehensiveness of the integral model, this model is considered to be the most appropriate model for future studies.

Language as a tool for transfering the meanings have an important role in shaping the nation's civilization، culture and identity. Persian language and Iranian rich culture is full of intellectual، moral and literary that could satisfy the intellectual weakness of the world. An important factor that implies strength of language is the ability to absorb scientific concepts. In This study we will evaluate the current ability of the Persian language in scientific issues with the historical method، systems analysis and foresight methods. At first the data have gathered and were analyzed in an expet panel to design a system model. Then the trend of each criteria have forecasted up to the end of 21 century. Finally، this model has been analyzedby the Vesim software. With current condition، optimistically this goal will happen in 2085. But with mobilizing the resources and ampifing the criteria in 2055 the Persian will be accepted as a scientific language.