نشریه مدلسازی اقتصاد سنجی
سال پنجم شماره 1 (پیاپی 16، زمستان 1398)

The Impact of Media on Economic Activity from the Channel to Provide Information and the Formation or Change of Economic Behavior and the Portfolio of Financial Assets of Individuals, is one of the Main Topics of Media Studies and Economics. Paying Attention to the Repetition Element in the Media for the Persuasion of the Audience Over Time Reflects the Creation of Time Dependent Dynamics in Family GARCH Models as one of the Most Common Methods of Study of is Variability. Simultaneous Comparison of the Results of the Estimation of Variability Models in Two Cases Without BEKK-MGARCH and Time Dependent DCC-MGARCH, to Examine the Effect of the Presence of the Head of the Central Bank in the Media on the Economic Behavior of the Society, Indicates the Significance of the Variability Relations and Time-Dependent Conditional Correlations and the Creation of a Type of Time-Based Elemental Expectation Patterns. According to the Results of this model, the Coefficient of Influence of the Presence of the Money official in the Media on the Value of the Dollar Rate and the Total Index of the Stock Market is Significant. The Effect of the Media Presence of the Monetary Authority on the Rate of Return on the Dollar, Through the Establishment of a Dynamic Conditional Correlation Between the Changes in the Dollar and the Coin Rates, also Influence of the Monetary Media Policy on the Price of the Coin over Time Is.

The Human Development Index is a widely accepted tool for measuring welfare. Various factors affect the development index. One of these factors is the corruption. Therefore, in the present study, using the quantile regression method, the impact of corruption on human development index in Iran and selected countries of the region in the period 2004- 2017 has been studied. The model estimation results show that at 5% significance level, corruption perception index has a negative impact on human development. The effect of economic freedom on human development is also positive. The high urbanization rate also have a positive effect on the level of human development. The impact of the unemployment rate on human development is also negative. The effects of democracy and real wage rates on human development are also positive.

The purpose of this study is to investigating the effect of direct and spillovers effect of human capital on regional convergence in Iran provinces based on the spatial Solow convergence model. For this purpose, based on the latest information available at the regional level, data from different provinces of the country have been used during the time period of 2005-2017. Also, the spatial dynamic Durbin model (DSDM is used to estimation of the model. According to the results, regional convergence in the country is confirmed, but the convergence rate is low (about 0.063%). Thus, the different regions of the country, in average, with a convergence rate of about 0.063% move in the direction of balanced growth towards a steady state situtation.Other results of the study have shown that human capital has direct positive and significant impacts on regional convergence in Iran.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of policy tools such as interest rate and exchange rate on inflation targeting in the form of new Keynesian model in terms of heterogeneity of economic agents' expectations. For this purpose, the statistical data of the period 1990-2018 were used based on the frequency of seasonal data. In this study, the model of rational expectations and limited expectations based on the pattern of comparative expectations for applying the limitations of the operators of expectation formation in economic agents has been used to predict macroeconomic variables. The results indicate that the shock of the exchange rate and the interest rate through a cost shock led to an increase in the inflation rate. Also, if the expectations of economic agents are rational, they have had less degree of flexibility than expectations have been adapted in a comparative way. Therefore, given the significant impact of the formation of the expectations of economic agents in inflation expectations, it can be seen that inflationary expectations in the country are also exacerbated by inflationary pressures in the country, which will affect the fluctuation of inflation. The transparency and integrity of the information and credibility of policymakers makes economic agents to shape their expectations with the least error and to prevent the negative effects of fluctuations of inflation on expectations change significantly.

One of the most challenging issues in tax policy debates is the trade-off between direct and indirect taxes. The main question is that should policy-maker focus on increasing direct taxes or indirect taxes? Accordingly, this paper investigates the issue of trade-off between direct and indirect taxes using a self- exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model in Iran for the period 1971-2017. The findings showed direct and indirect taxes had affected on economic growth in a tree-regime structure. In the first regime (years that economic growth is less than -6.41%), the effect of direct and indirect taxes (% GDP) on economic growth was not significant. In the second regime (years that economic growth is greater than -6.41% and less than 9.47%), this effect was positive and significant for indirect taxes and insignificant for direct taxes. Finally, in the third regime (years that the economic growth is greater than 9.47%), direct and indirect taxation (% GDP) has had a significant negative and significant positive effect on economic growth, respectively. Therefore, it can be inferred that in the range of economic growth greater than -6.41%, a trade-off can be assumed to increase indirect taxes rather than direct taxes, so that has a positive effect on economic growth.

The purpose of this paper was to model the intraday behavior of transactions based on trading hours on the Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, statistical data extracted from Rahnavard Novin software have been used for the period of April 2009 to September 2017 based on the frequency of daily data. The variables used in this study include trading volume, return fluctuations, and differences between the best selling price. In this study, the time period for trading on the Tehran Stock Exchange is divided according to the time of 15 minutes. The volume of transactions and behavioral patterns for the first 3 15-minute intervals and the last 3 15-minute time intervals were examined. The results of this study showed that at the beginning and end of the market, the values ​​of value variables and trading volume and the values ​​of change and price increase increase, and the volume and size of transactions, unlike price changes and returns, are maximized at the end of the day. The results indicate that in fact the volume and value of transactions follow the pattern (J) of the shape and yield and price changes follow the pattern (L). Based on the results, the volume and value of transactions at the beginning and end of the day is higher than other times and at the end of the day the transaction is maximized.