نشریه مدلسازی اقتصاد سنجی
سال هشتم شماره 3 (پیاپی 31، پاییز 1402)

The credit cycles have a major effect on the behavior of economic enterprises during periods of boom and recession. The change in the behavior of economic enterprises leads to its contagion to real and nominal sectors in the economy. On the other hand, the currency crises have influenced the investment decisions of various economic sectors. The purpose of this paper was to examine the relationship between credit cycles and currency crises in Iran. In this study, the variable coefficients approach was used over time for the period of 1991-2020. In this regard, credit cycles and currency crises have been used by the Christiano-Filtzgerald filter and the adjusted index of currency crises. The results showed that there has been a coincidence between credit cycles and currency crises in the country. Also, the results showed that the currency crisis had a negative effect on the GDP and economic growth in the country. In addition, it was observed that credit cycles have led to economic growth during boom times and decreased economic growth during recessions.

According to the conditions of the banking system in recent years, signs of a banking crisis have been observed in Iran's economy, and considering the high share of the banking system in financing Iran's economic activities, in this article, the effects of productivity impulse on the variables of inflation rate, Nominal interest rate, capital rental rate, interest rate of deposits and interest rate of granting facilities have been investigated using dynamic general equilibrium model in the form of two limit scenarios of no crisis and presence of banking crisis using the data of Iran's economy during 2018-2019. The results show the less impact of the productivity impulse in the case of banking crisis compared to its non-occurrence and incomplete adjustments in banking crisis conditions.

The decisions of the central bank, as the most important monetary institution of any country, have an impact on the companies whose shares are bought and sold in the stock exchange, and this market is dependent on the policies of the central bank. Considering the importance of this issue, in the present study, the effect of central bank independence on the stock returns of active industries in the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 1370 to 1399 will be investigated by using the ARDL Bounding Test. Results of the model indicate that increasing the degree of central bank independence increases the stock returns of active industries in the Tehran Stock Exchange. Also, the findings show that the impact of GDP growth, interest rate, oil price and turnover ratio on stock returns is positive and on the other hand, inflation rate and real exchange rate have a negative effect on stock returns.

The current research aims to explore the effects of entrepreneurship on economic growth in a sample of 35 emerging countries from 2006 to 2020, considering that these effects might not follow a simple linear and predictable pattern. In other words, this study strives not only to assess the positive or negative impact of entrepreneurship on economic growth but also to analyze the nonlinear and more intricate variations of these effects. This research utilizes entrepreneurship density data provided by the World Bank and employs the innovative dynamic threshold panel approach proposed by Seo and Shin (2016) and Seo et al. (2019) to investigate the threshold effect of entrepreneurship on economic growth. The results of this study indicate that achieving a meaningful and positive impact of entrepreneurship on economic growth in developing countries requires a minimum density of approximately 3.25 entrepreneurs per 1000 people. This finding suggests that policymakers should create an environment that not only promotes entrepreneurship but also strengthens it to reach this crucial threshold for economic growth. Additionally, when variables such as per capita income, trade openness, financial development, and income from natural resources exceed a certain threshold level, the significant effect of entrepreneurship on economic growth becomes evident. These findings are of great importance for policymakers, particularly in developing countries interested in enhancing entrepreneurship and economic growth, as they can utilize this information to design effective policies and initiatives. The identification of the threshold level of entrepreneurial activity and the consideration of contextual factors provides policymakers with practical insights for policy and initiative design.

In this paper we estimate the unrecorded economic activity in Iran during 1350-1400 by Kalman filter technique (state –space approach). In the model used in this paper, the unrecorded economic activity is considered as an unobserved process that depends on regulatory quality, control of corruption, size of government, income tax, population, etc. and affects cash in circulation and energy consumption. In Iran the findings suggest that unrecorded economic activity in Iran has increased sizably the years under review especially in recent years. Furthermore, we saw that control of corruption has a negative and significant effect and regulatory quality has a negative and significant effect and size of government has positive and significant effect and income tax has a positive and significant effect and population has a positive and significant effect on size of unrecorded economic activity.

The purpose of this article is to analyze the effect of the heterogeneous behavior of investors in the housing sector on housing prices and inflation in Iran during the period 2001:3 - 2020:3. The threshold effects of behavioral variables on housing prices and the effect of housing prices on inflation using smooth transition regression method (STR) is estimated. Then, using Sobel's statistic. The results of the estimation of house prices show that Herding behavior has a positive effect on housing prices in the first regime and the second regime. Overconfidence in the first regime was ineffective on housing prices, but in the second regime, it had a positive and significant effect. The results of estimating the inflation model also indicated that there are two limit regimes for the inflation function. Housing prices had a positive effect on the inflation rate in the first and second regimes. The calculation of the Sobel statistic also indicates the confirmation of the transmission of the effect of herding behavior on inflation from the housing price channel, while the Sobel test did not confirm the transmission of the effect of overconfidence from the housing price channel on inflation