نشریه آینده پژوهی ایران
سال چهارم شماره 2 (پاییز و زمستان 1398)

To strengthen the civilized government of Iran through resilience and internal strength of the society, and to strengthen the society again through internal strength and the possibility of relying on the internal capabilities of the civilized government. Strengthening society through the strength of the state, and the result of the continuous strengthening of the state and society, is stability, and the foundation of a new Islamic civilization in the future.

In this study, analytical-descriptive approach and in-depth interviews were used. To gather information, documents and texts, as well as interviews with experts in individual form and group meetings, were used through theoretical saturation sampling.

Dependence on the path in the field of public policy is the most important issue facing the civilized government and the Iranian society in the domestic dimension. Therefore, from the perspective of challenging internal strength and relying on the inside, dependence on the path in public policy is the most important issue for the civilized government of Iran.

In order to get out of dependence on the path in the field of public policy, adaptive public policy should be considered by the government and long-term institutions such as the Islamic Consultative Assembly and etc. In this study, an adaptive cycle for public policy for resilience has been proposed. In this cycle, five subsystems of infrastructure, environmental, economic, historical, social and cultural, and political and governance are examined to apply strategic transformations in order to gradually change the direction of public policy.

future threats, rapid and broad environmental changes have challengedstructures of management and policy firms, and strategic foresight are welcomed through companies ever-increasingly due to their flexibility in changing future alternatives. This research sought to provide a suitable model of strategic foresight for Iranian small and medium enterprises.

This is a qualitative and quantitative combination study. Firstly, applying Meta-Synthesis technique including seven stages, the study begins systematically analyzing and assessment of the results and findings of prior studies. The data is gathered by library research and expert opinions. Then, Cronbach's alpha and SPSS were used to validate the model.

The results show that the favorable model included 35 models that were identified based on the research topic. The final model consisted of 13 main components and 9 sub-indices of strategic foresight.

According to the literature review in the field, no holistic research has been performed so far on the foresight of Iranian small and medium enterprises. As a result, the proposed model is the first model for these companies that can help to develop and implement appropriate strategies regarding the existence of unstable situations.

The main goal of this research is introducing Iran's futures Startups Scenarios in 1404 horizon. in this research, the scenario planning for the country's startups has been discussed using a combination of Scenario methods, STEEP model and Cross Impact Matrix. Mic-Mac software has been used in the analysis. Four scenarios entitled wealth angels, modernity in another time, turning backward and rationality in limitation were introduced. In the first scenario, two variables of digital market and resistive economy were in desired limit and policy makers have been became the most important propellant of development startups in Iran. Expansion of wide band internet and cell-phones’ network have made people the great users in products and services of startup companies. In second scenario, our country has become resistant against internal and external changes, dangers and threats. However, in demander's side, there is no common understanding about the working methods of startups in the country traditional systems have not adapted with the new technologies. Considering the third scenario, the country faces destructive economic crisis, inappropriate technology conditions and limited penetration rate of the internet, have made difficulties for startup companies. According to the fourth scenario, startups change threats to opportunities and take big share of Iran's market in the absence of international big firms. By identifying indicators, planners and policymakers will determine which scenario we are moving toward. The indicators also warn policymakers and planners if we want to move towards desired scenario, which indicators should we turn into the optimal indicator?

With Trump coming to power as President of the United States and his resignation from the JCPOA, tensions have escalated again, putting relations between the two countries in crisis. The problem for the author is how these relationships can move towards resolving problems - not complete elimination of hostility. The purpose of this study is to determine the future making of the Iran's political relations with the US and categorize the possible future of US-Iran relations by constructing favorable, undesirable, acceptable, and tolerable future scenarios.

This research uses the present-future extension method (Exploratory approach), which is one of the futures studies methods, by adopting the principles of qualitative-interpretive method. Research strategy is inquiry, application type, case study and process study.

The findings indicate that the probable futures in Iranian - American relations include a spectrum that can lead to military confrontation, and on the other hand, the negotiation and agreement that Iran will achieve its interest in it depends on the performance and implementation of the prescriptions presented in this study.

In order to achieve the favorable scenario and to avoid the unfavorable scenario as much as possible, a two-step diplomacy approach based on threat and allurement should be implemented simultaneously. These threats and allurements complement each other, and their use independently and individually not only does not help to achieve the favorable scenario, but can also lead to its non-fulfillment.

Arvandrood is one of the common water resources in West Asia, which according to current geopolitics conditions has a special sensibility and position in different historical periods between Iran and Iraq relationship that has been affected by the ways of exploiting and ownership. The last disagreement relating to this subject had led to 8 years of war between the two countries and occurrence of vast human and economic casualties for the two countries. Thus, the need for adoption a suitable strategy in diplomatic relationship between Iran and Iraq towards ways of managing and exploiting of this common water resource is crucial.

In this research, in the first step by studying previous related academic documentaries and records and using opinions of 12 experts, 48 factors affecting the future of Arvandrood hydro-politics determined, and in the second step by formation of expert panel, similar factors merged and 26 of them were identified. Then by using the Friedman model, 12 important and effective factors were specified. Finally, by using the future studies software Micmac and Crossover Matrix Analysis Method, the key factors were identified.

5 effective key factors in the future of Arvandrood hydropolitics were identified.

The results show that Iran must provide the growth and developments of cities and ports near Arvand and negotiate and participate with Turkey and Iraq based on the amount of water supply in Arvand River.

The main purpose of the research is to study the desirable condition of the National Library and its role in achieving the scientific goals of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

This research is purpose-oriented, applied and has a qualitative approach. The research method was semi-structured interview using semi-structured interview. Sampling was done using snowball method and linear method. In this research, 25 professors of information science have been selected and questioned in two phases. Research has two main questions: 1. What national and strategic library should be considered in order to achieve the desired goals of the Islamic Republic of Iran? 2. What is the favorable situation of the National Library in realizing the scientific goals of the Islamic Republic of Iran? In this research, through semi-structured interviews, the desirable indicators of each functional function of the National Library were determined and finally, with the help of the Likert spectrum, with the objectives of the macro The Islamic Republic of Iran comprehensive scientific map document has been merged as the most important document of the country's scientific development.

The findings showed that in the favorable situation of the National Library, the seventh goal of this document, namely, "helping to promote science and technology in the Islamic world and revitalizing the central and historical position of Iran in Islamic culture and civilization" with the score of 3.79, can be the most useful instrument of the library.

The results indicated that National Library can play an important role to fulfill the scientific goals of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

In the last two decades, there has been a question of how can a successful organization be modeled? To answer this question, the concept of "organizational DNA" has been suggested. "Organizational DNA" is a tool for analyzing and recognizing the difference in the behavior and personality of organizations, and many of the behavioral practices, actions, and organizational structures affected by it. The main question in this study is what are the factors that influence the modeling of successful parts of an organization?  Therefore, the purpose of this research is to propose a model for organizational DNA in the IRIB.

In this study, the qualitative data method of the foundation was used and 30 national media managers were selected and interviewed to collect information. The organization's archival documents and resources were also used. Then, the data analysis of this research was done through open, axial and selective coding.

In this study, 312 extraction codes and 4 main (selective) axes of decision-making, selection and method of using motivational factors, organizational structure and communication networks, information and organizational knowledge were identified, each of which is influenced by axial factors.

By managing the key factors identified in this research, the organizational DNA of the IRIB and its weaknesses and strengths are identified and managed and implemented in order to realize organizational goals, such as benchmarking successful areas and improving the quality of radio and television productions.

The present article aims to identify the effective factors for the future of media consumption in the Sabalan channel with an emphasis on entertainment.

  The research is based on a futuristic look (2019 to 2029) and a combination of Library research and Delphi methods. According to the dynamics of the far and competition environment, based on the future studies, the views and opinions of experts, factors and elements related to the future are identified.

48 factors were identified in five groups of environment and five groups in the competition environment and were answered by experts concerning their importance and uncertainty. In the factors of competitive environment, audiences with importance of 86.72% and, in terms of uncertainty, substitute goods with 76.44% more than other factors and in the environment of remote environment, also technologically important with 85.42% and in terms of uncertainty, morality was 89.5% higher than others. The ranking of factors based on the importance, the use of new molds and structures with 93/15% and the view of the managers of the Sabalan channel to entertain with 90/70% is more than other factors. In the uncertainty, sexuality and violence were 92.64% and infotainment with 88.82% of the uncertainty.

The future in which Sabalan channel will operate will be based on more competitive and specialized environments than today. Provincial, national, and satellite channels, using developed technologies to attract more audiences, will create tough competitive conditions for Sabalan channel.

With the advent of the third millennium, human resource empowerment is now remembered as the sole factor in achieving success and sustainable competitive advantage. Despite the widespread use of human resource empowerment models, public libraries in the country still lack a comprehensive model in which the various concepts, dimensions, and components of human resource empowerment are clearly identified. The purpose of the present paper is to identify and quantify the dimensions of strategic excellence components of human resources empowerment of public libraries in the country to provide a suitable and functional model for the future.

In the present applied research, a questionnaire was used to collect data. The statistical sample was selected by purposeful method based on criteria including 56 experts in human management and information science. The survey was conducted in three stages and the results were refined. Expert Choice software version 11 and the fuzzy Delphi method are used to refine the components and dimensions.

The results showed the strategic excellence model for human resources empowerment of Iranian public libraries includes three dimensions and nineteen components. In this line, the strategic dimension has the most impact on staff empowerment and the structural dimension has the second priority as well as the individual dimension has the least impact on staff empowerment.

According to studies conducted in the literature study, so far no comprehensive study has been conducted on presenting a strategic model of human resource empowerment of public libraries in the country with an approach to the future. Therefore, the model presented in this study, as the first strategic human resource empowerment model of public libraries in the country, is capable of responding to its future human resource empowerment.

Population aging is a phenomenon requiring attention. Any decision and action in this regard should be based on future image(s). Scenario planning is a way of thinking about the future and its focus is often on the possible images.The overall goal of this research is to identify and analyze the interactive and affective variables and key propellants affecting future images of the older using interactive effects analysis.

This article is applied research based on use; In terms of the nature is exploratory research; In terms of data collection is descriptive-survey and according to application is classified within futures studies.

The findings in this study were extracted by using the Micmac software and interaction analysis that identified 12 subjective patterns and key factors such as personal and organizational learning, effective training, and localization of successful aging models. Personal skills, social networks, income and wealth distribution processes, demographic changes, customs changes, work force, financial stability, individualism, individual flexibility.

Generally, the authorities in the field of aging can be aware of the extent and importance of each of the variables mentioned, pay serious and operational attention to these factors, and be able to plan well and reasonably, in not far away future, it will not be neglected and ready for it.

Constant changes in technologies and business models have led organizations to take new strategies to quickly seize opportunities and avoid future destructive risks. Open foresight is one of the new strategies that emphasize both internal and external skills and capabilities, enables organizations to identify new ideas for innovative products and services and overcome the environmental complexities of businesses. The objective of this research is to consider the impact of open futures on open innovation with emphasis on the framework of competitive values. The research methodology in this paper is based on the Delphi method of experts and panelists and Delphi experts have been used to evaluate the impact of future research knowledge on planning and policy making patterns in planning and development knowledge. This paper is descriptive-explorative and correlational as to the purpose and the processing of data collection and analysis. The main achievement of this paper has been to identify priority areas for achieving scientific excellence in the textile industry with the participation of all stakeholders. This article has been able to illustrate the impact of different cultures on futurism and open innovation. Structural model path analysis indicates that open foresight with a factor of 0.43 has a positive effect on open innovation and that humanistic and developmental cultures are strong drivers for open foresight and open innovation and bureaucratic culture is an obstacle to the success of projects. Open futures and the promotion of open innovation are considered.

The purpose of the present study is to analyze the effect of quantum leadership on organizational excellence with the mediating role of organizational knowledge management and quantum skills.

This is an applied-based research, and a survey analytic causal-descriptive one that was conducted through. This research is also part of the cross-sectional research. Questionnaire was used for data collection and its validity and reliability were confirmed. The statistical population of this study consisted of all 3659 employees of Mega Motor Company. A sample size of 347 persons was selected and studied according to Morgan table by simple random sampling. Data analysis was also done through structural equation modeling methods.

Two hypotheses were presented for the present study that after testing, the results of the present study showed that quantum leadership dimensions have significant effect on organizational excellence of mega Motor Company with mediating role of knowledge management. The results also showed that quantum leadership dimensions have a significant effect on organizational excellence of Mega Motor with the mediating role of quantum skills.

Since quantum leadership has a significant impact on organizational excellence with the mediating role of organizational knowledge management and quantum skills, therefore, quantum skills and strategic knowledge management can be improved in enhancing corporate leadership level.