نشریه اقتصاد و الگوسازی
پیاپی 41 (بهار 1399)

The average economic growth rate of Iran over the past four decades has been a positive number; Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has risen on the average over the past four decades. Therefore, the main issue in this study is that the employment rate has not been increased in proportion to the economic growth rate. For this purpose, first, using the pathological method of employment growth, the challenge of growth associated with employment has been investigated. One of the most important constraints on job growth is the technology factor. Then, using quantitative regression quantitative method and data related to technology index, employment growth elasticity index and sustainability index in technology improvement, the effect of technology on employment growth elasticity during the period 1990:1-2020:4, has been investigated. The results show that in the primary deciles, the impact of technology and sustainability in technology improvement on employment elasticity is higher than in the final deciles. Also, in recent years, with the improvement of technology, production has increased, and employment has decreased. Therefore, in addition to improving technology, the issue of adapting the labor force through training and skills enhancement channels with technology changes should be considered and emphasized.

Institutional quality is one of the key determinants of the economic performance of countries. The literature lacks a formal model to address the role of institutional quality changes in the macroeconomic dynamics of a developing economy. Using a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework and incorporating rent-seeking technology, this study investigates the effect of institutional quality shocks on the business cycle and the dynamic behavior of key macroeconomic variables in Iran. Our modeling allows us to show how institutional quality affects behavior of households, firms, government, and the central bank. The model is solved and calibrated for the period 1984-2017. The results indicate that better institutional quality increases private consumption, government spending, and non-oil production through increasing productive activities, decreasing transaction costs, improving productivity, enhancing investment, and promoting more effective monetary and fiscal policies. More specifically, policymakers should take certain measures to improve the quality of institutions in Iran through boosting government stability, fighting corruption, controlling rent-seeking activities, improving law and order, increasing democratic accountability, and bureaucracy quality. These findings might have important policy implications for policymakers in Iran.

Generally, investment in new technology through foreign direct investment or import of capital goods can lead to decrease energy intensity. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to evaluate and compare the effect of foreign direct investment and import of capital goods on energy intensity of Iranian economic sectors. In this regard, disaggregated data for the sectors of agriculture, transportation, industry, and mine have been used during 1993-2018 and the model has been estimated by Arellano and Bond method. Other than two above mentioned variables, energy price index, value added and its square, trade openness, producer price index and exchange rate have been used as explanatory variables. The results show that the lag of foreign direct investment has significant and negative effect on energy intensity in economic sectors, while import of capital goods has no significant effect and even the lag of this variable has increased it. Moreover, value added, energy price index and trade openness have negative relation with energy intensity. Finally, producer price index and exchange rate have positive relation with energy intensity. Hence, absorption of foreign direct investment than import of capital goods is important to reduce energy intensity in Iranian economic sectors.

One of the key issues in the development of the industrial sector is to increase energy efficiency to improve the quality of the environment. On this issue, the study uses industrial sector data of two-digit ISIC codes for the period of 2007-2015 to estimate energy efficiency of sub-sectors of industry and evaluates the effect of industrial concentration on it. The results show that recycling has lowest energy efficiency equals to 0.01 and Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products has highest energy efficiency which is equal to 0.78. Also, the Manufacture of fabricated metal products, Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products and Manufacture of food products and beverages have lowest spatial concentration index equal to 0.031 and Manufacture of office, accounting and computing machinery in highest level is 0.394. The results of the Tobit estimation show that industrial concentration has negative effect on energy efficiency, and R&D expenditure, energy prices and human capital have a positive and effect on energy efficiency. The allocations of R&D expenditures to identify novel production processes, improve the quality of human capital and distributing industrial activities in provinces basic on relative advantages are effective policies to increase energy efficiency.

One of the most important factors effecting the economic growth and sustainable development is high quality institutions in countries. Therefore, identifying the determinants of quality of institutions, especially those related to quality of governance, will provide appropriate means to increase quality of governance. In addition, improving the quality of governance will improve the structure of government spending and improve the economic performance of countries. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the quality of governance in countries with natural resource rents using simultaneous equations of panel data. In this study we have used the data of 32 countries with natural resource rent in the period of 2002-2015. The results show that GDP per capita, tax revenues and freedom of press have affected the quality of governance. Also, the quality of governance in countries with resource rent has affected economic growth by influencing the structure of government spending and human capital.

The analysis of the welfare effects of trade agreement of Iran and Eurasian Economic Union can be useful in economic decision making; therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the welfare effects of reducing import tariffs between Iran and the member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. For this purpose, Global Trade Analysis Project, version 10 of its databases and RunGTAP software package have been used. The results show that the complete elimination of import tariffs between Iran and members of the Eurasian Union will have significant welfare effects on the regions of Russia, Iran and Kazakhstan, and a small welfare on Armenia and Kyrgyzstan regions. Also, the separation of welfare effects in Iran indicates that the most positive impact on Iran's welfare is related to the reduction of Russia Tariffs for the goods imported from Iran and also the reduction of Iran’s Tariffs for the goods imported from Russia, and the most negative impact on Iran's welfare is related to the reduction of Tariffs for imported goods from Kazakhstan and the reduction of Tariffs for imported goods from Belarus.

Increasing production through increased productivity, including important countries ' programs, is expected to achieve continued economic growth. The index of economic complexity using technology and innovation in the manufacturing process through the creation of the generating structure causes an increase in total productivity of the factors. This study estimated the effect of economic complexity on total production factors in 29 selected countries of science using the generalized moments of moments (GMM) during the period of 2009–2017. The results show that indicators of economic complexity, technological readiness and globalization Such as economic globalization have a positive and significant effect on total productivity of production factors. also, inflation index has a negative and significant effect on productivity of all production factors. Therefore, appropriate adaptations to improve the economic complexity, the use of knowledge and technology in its products and to increase the level of international interactions in order to increase the contribution of total productivity growth factors should be recommended.