نشریه اقتصاد و الگوسازی
پیاپی 53 (بهار 1402)

Today, the trade of technological products has become a pivotal force in shaping the global economy. With rapid advancements in technology and increasing interconnectedness, the trade of technological products has expanded exponentially over the years. This article examines the structural position of Iran in the export and import trade network of high-tech products in 2019 using network theory approach. Also, this paper assesses important suppliers and demanders of high-tech products in the high-tech trade networks. Finally, this manuscript evaluates the effect of recommended countries which are members of international treaties in Iran in high-tech products with an international political economy approach. The results show that creating or strengthening import links from East Asian, Southeast Asian, Oceania, and European countries can enhance Iran's structural position in the high-tech products trade network. Besides, in the export sector, the East Asian and Oceania countries are suggested destinations for the export of technological products. In addition, from the point of view of international political economy, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar and Turkey in the Middle East and Germany, Italy, China, Japan, Singapore, France, South Korea, Malaysia, India, the Netherlands and Hong Kong in other parts of the world are considered suitable for Iran in the trade of technological products.

Considering the importance of electronic payment tools in financial transactions and the increasing development of these tools, this study aims to examine the effects of electronic payment tools using the new Keynesian DSGE model, from the household consumption channel, the demand for monetary assets of households and bank deposit to the real sector of Iran's economy. So far, the impact of these tools on the real sector of Iran's economy has not been investigated using Micro-based models. The basic elements of the considered model are households, companies (both final and intermediate goods companies), commercial banks, government and central bank. The parameters of the model were determined using the calibration method of the period of 2016-2018. The results of the shock of electronic payment tools on the variables of production, employment, inflation, growth rate of money and investment were investigated, and the results indicate that with the shock of electronic payment tools, production, employment and investment increased and inflation and the growth rate of the money decreases. The impact of electronic payment tools in the real sector of Iran's economy show that these tools can play a role beyond the safe transfer of money and policymaking, infrastructure growth and development use of new technologies and legislation in This section appears is necessary more and more.

Export diversification is a preventive measure against trade shocks, which is defined as an increase in the number of export goods and a decrease in a country's dependence on a single source for exports, and it can help macroeconomic stability. This index is an essential aspect of the development process not only for rentier governments but also for all countries, which can affect income inequality in various ways. Therefore, the study tries to investigate the effect of export diversity on income inequality and the impacts of political risk on the interaction between these two variables, in 81 countries with high and low political risk using the panel quantile model with fixed effects during the years 2000-2019. The results show that export diversity increases income inequality in both groups of countries under investigation. However, export diversification effects on income inequality is greater in countries with high political risk. Therefore, in these countries, the more skilled labor has been used to compensate for the diversification costs and has caused a high wage gap. Industrialization and increasing the degree of trade openness reduce income inequality. Foreign direct investment increases income inequality in both categories of countries. GDP per capita has a non-linear inverse U-shaped effect on income inequality, that Kuznets' hypothesis is confirmed in both categories of countries.

Modeling the behavior of policymakers and monetary authorities in relation to macroeconomic conditions is crucial for economists. Estimating the reaction function of monetary policy to the out gap and inflation gap has become one of the most important issues for this reason. In this regard, the current study used continuous wavelet transform and multiple coherence tools, partial coherence, partial phase difference, and partial wavelet gain to evaluate Iran's monetary policy in the time-frequency domain from 1988 to 2021. The results indicate that the reaction function of monetary policy in addressing the inflation gap has been inefficient, which reflects the central bank's lack of independence and the contagion of macroeconomic imbalances to the monetary base. If the short-run horizon and the years 2013-2014 were considered, a rule based, and counter-cyclical response was implemented. In other periods and years, it has been reported that monetary policy has no effect or is discretionary, resulting in an increase in inflation deviation. During the years 2000-2008 and 2013-2014, regular and stabilizing monetary policy was observed during business cycles with a horizon of more than eight years. In spite of this, the monetary policy has not been able to fulfill its mandate in the common horizon of business cycles (4-8 years), where the counter-cyclical reaction becomes more essential to the output gap.

The topic of energy resilience has been noticed a lot in recent decades. Resilience refers to ability of the system to face intense disturbances with a low probability of occurrence. A system is resilient, where it can de facto absorb the temporary or permanent risks and adjust itself with rapidly changing positions of the economy without losing its efficiency factor. In this study we propose a multi- region input–output model to study the energy resilience of several multi-country economies in the year of 2014 with accounts for the inter-sectoral and inter-regional dependencies in the economic structure. The model computes the impacts of random energy production disruptions on the entire multi-regional input–output system in the form of final demand deficits. The results show that when the supply of electricity decreases, the sector's demand for other energy carriers increases, it means, it substitutes these energy carriers with electricity. But Generally Other energy carriers are not suitable substitutes for all economic sectors. We also observed that in the case of trade between countries, the occurrence of a shock in one region is covered by other regions therefore cooperation among regions can improve the individual and collective energy resilience significantly.

Investigating the behavior of agents in the housing sector, including investors, households and developers, is very important. A large part of housing price fluctuations is caused by the activities of these agent, especially the investors in this sector, and these housing price fluctuations influence other economic sectors because the housing sector has a lot of backward and forward relationships with other sectors. This research aims to analysis of the behavior of agent in the housing sector in the forming of the equilibrium pattern of housing prices in Iran using the mathematical optimization method for the period of 1991 to 2022. The results show that there is a positive relationship between the equilibrium price of housing with the construction cost of each residential unit, household income and investors' expectations of housing prices. Also, there is a direct relationship between the volume of trading of investors and their expectations of housing prices. When the expectations of housing prices are in the range of zero to 1.71 and more than 1.71, investors will be in the position of selling and buying housing, respectively. Hence, the relationship between the equilibrium price of housing and the volume of trading of investors with the risk component of investors is positive, and if the equilibrium price of housing is more (less than) 2.33, investors take a selling (buying) position. On the other hand, if the investors are in the low range of zero according to the amount of risk and volume of trading of investors, then the investors are in the selling position and if they are in the upper range of zero, the investors are in the buying position.