نشریه چشم انداز شهرهای آینده
پیاپی 3 (پاییز 1399)

Foresight and awareness of the future composition of the rural population can play an effective role in the development and application of principled policies in the planning structure of the region, which the present study has analyzed with emphasis on the role of migration in Varzeqan. This research is applied, descriptive-analytical and combined in terms of purpose, nature and methodology, respectively. In the qualitative part, the meta-combined method has been used and in the quantitative part, the population foresight in the horizon of 15 years has been done by using spectrum software. In the analysis of the causes and consequences of migration, 9 categories about the causes and context, 8 categories about the consequences and 10 categories have been identified as solutions. The results of the forecast of demographic indicators indicate a gradual decrease in the rate of vital rates, which will increase the population growth rate to 0.84 and the sex ratio to 103.49. The aging population rate is expected to reach 23% in the 1411 horizon, 23% in the under-14 population, 67% in the 15- to 64-year-old population and 10% in the over-65 population. Also, the interpretation of quantitative-qualitative data shows that the indicators of "decrease in sex ratio, decrease in child-to-woman ratio, decrease in mean reproductive age and population aging", which are known as the consequences of rural-urban migration, have been considered in quantitative and futures analysis. These indicators will always face a gradual decline over the 15-year horizon.

Urban spaces, due to their physical structure and social function, are the most important means to strengthen civil society as an area of ​​participation of all groups, both men and women. The vitality of urban spaces is of great importance; because these spaces are a place for social relations and are an important part of the life experience of citizens. One of the factors that affect the vitality of future urban spaces is the presence of women in such spaces. The purpose of this study is to identify the factors affecting the vitality of future urban spaces for the presence of women in these spaces. The present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. The data required for the research were collected using a questionnaire. The statistical population of the research includes experts related to the field of urban vitality and urban spaces that 50 people have been selected as the research sample by purposive sampling method. SPLS software has been used for data analysis. The results show that safety and security, accessibility, diversity and attractiveness, social justice, space efficiency, environmental quality, comfort and convenience, social interaction and sense of place affect the vitality of future urban spaces for the active presence of women. Among the mentioned indicators, space efficiency, diversity and attractiveness and quality of the environment have the greatest impact on the presence of women in future urban spaces. The model presented in this study can be used as a model to measure the vitality of future urban spaces for the active presence of women in the cities of the country..

It has been four decades since import substitution policies became a foreign trade strategy in Iran. Although this strategy initially created scales of industrialization in the country, but due to delays in implementation, lack of economic policy with evolutionary approaches and not shifting to extroversion policies, could not create acceptable industrial and commercial development in the country. In this regard, it seems that Iran's free economic and commercial cities are deprived of the space requirements that are a precondition for gaining profit and added value, and this can lead to increasing inefficiency and inefficiency in free trade-industrial cities. Considering the increasing importance of free trade-industrial zones in the processes of Iran's political economy, the present study uses a descriptive-analytical method to measure the functions of free trade-industrial zones in southern and southeastern Iran (including Kish, Qeshm and Chabahar) and the degree of alignment and compliance. It has explored these areas with the global production system. The results show that the logic governing the free trade-industrial zones of Iran is not consistent with the logic of production in the field of globalization; because global open future production is highly dependent on technology. Therefore, given the 20-year economic and political processes that have taken place in these areas, it seems that at least in the horizon of 2025, these areas will remain in relative deprivation due to lack of technological production-oriented procedures and achievements.

The impact of COVID_19 on urban places and spaces has been significant and with the destruction of their function has changed the meaning of both of them. These changes seem to be very important urban environment and ecosystem. In the last 3 decades and the dominance of neoliberal thinking on the construction of cities in Iran urban space and short distances between houses and apartment units and the transformation of the city , this issue is very important. The purpose of this article is to challenge the misguided policies of urban planning in Iran, especially in metropolitan areas. On the other hand, how to consider Quaid 19 can be effective in reducing other similar risks. The method used in this paper is descriptive-analytical and the data used in this study are valid and official global institutions and official sources of countries. The results of this study show that medical and treatment resources without environmental and geographical understanding of this issue are not enough to reduce the number of patients and mortality. On the other hand, including health issues in urban planning and urban resource management can be very important in reducing diseases, including infectious diseases.

Fundamentals of urbanization have paid more attention to economic flows and demographic changes in cities and regions. Recently, scientific and political communities have paid special attention to the challenges of urbanization, one of the most important of which is related to health and disease in cities. The question is whether existing cities that will be created in the future will cause an outbreak or a barrier to disease. In this study, the role of cities in creating flows that leads to an increase in the prevalence of diseases, especially emerging infectious diseases EID, in different urban areas, and briefly shows how urbanization is effective in the epidemiology of diseases. The method used in this research is descriptive-research. It is noteworthy that in addition to the problems associated with demographic change in cities, environmental pressures along with social and spatial changes have led to new forms of disease outbreaks that are involved in the emergence of EID epidemics. Studies have shown that three important factors influencing the prevalence of diseases in cities are: demographic change, infrastructure and government. Of course, there are more factors that can be identified, but these are three topics that are most prominent in the literature on urbanization and disease, and are also closely related to the processes of urbanization. By turning to urban management to create smart cities, the economic and social effects of disease outbreaks or any natural crises are significantly reduced.

All human beings in their daily lives are in contact with their surroundings and are affected or influenced by the environment in some way. All human behaviors take place in certain spaces. In these spaces, real and expected behaviors occur within the available possibilities, and a desirable space is assumed when it is designed according to the behavioral characteristics and needs of individuals. One of the scientific objectives of this article is to present and explain the systematic model of human behavior in urban spaces and man-made environments, in the form of urban communication axes and their comparative comparison and its effects on creating behavioral patterns of users. This research is of applied type and its method is descriptive-analytical. Also, non-parametric statistical methods have been used to measure and analyze 275 questionnaires designed using SPSS software. The results of this study show that the behavioral patterns of citizens in the main thoroughfares of the 1st and 10th districts of Mashhad metropolis, including the main axis of Sajjad Boulevard with an average difference of -0.41071 in speed, movement, social interaction, space usage time, group presence And the amount of garbage thrown around has a significant and obvious difference compared to the Imamiyeh axis, which indicates the need for special attention to the design of public spaces in the city, including streets.