نشریه چشم انداز شهرهای آینده
سال پنجم شماره 1 (پیاپی 17، بهار 1403)

Over the past years, the issue of equal participation of disabled and marginalized people in economic, social, and civil life has been a top priority for many countries. With life expectancy increasing across the world, cities need to accommodate an aging and growing population. Developing inclusive urban environments that support residents with different abilities in all stages of life is essential. This approach aims to restore the self-esteem and independence of disabled people and to encourage the development and implementation of user-friendly, universal, and inclusive design. This study analyzed the factors that affect the creation of inclusive urban spaces. The main indicators and variables of creating such spaces were determined by reviewing the theoretical research literature and using the opinions of 20 urban geography experts. Using Interpretive-structural modeling, the relationships between the indicators and the degree of influence and dependence of each one were determined and analyzed. Based on the findings of the research, effective factors in the creation of inclusive urban spaces were presented on 7 levels and consisting of 37 components. The most influential factors include accessibility, simple and understandable use, comfort, and flexibility

Form, as the front line of exposure to the external environment, defines how the building contacts climatic elements, including solar radiation. Therefore, the different components of the form also affect the amounts of solar factors received by the building and cause a change in the energy performance of the building. Due to the presence of solar heat gain (SHG) and visual transmission (Tv) components in solar radiation and the simultaneous activity of office uses with the presence of daylight, not paying attention to these two components at the same time can lead to a departure from the conditions of thermal comfort and visual comfort. Therefore, to increase productivity in office applications, it is necessary to investigate the behavior of forms against solar radiation and remove unsuitable types. To achieve the optimal form for the mentioned applications in future cities, this research aims to evaluate the energy performance based on the fourth edition of topic 19th of the National Building Regulations by examining a frequently repeated form. This research was done with the descriptive-analytical research method. The required documentary data were extracted from valid databases and after modeling with DesignBuilder software, the outputs were described and analyzed. As a result, rectangle and square shapes have formed 69% of the form of these buildings with frequency of 38% and 31%, respectively. The proposed type A2 with a length-to-width ratio of 2 to 1 has the most optimal performance against solar heat and visible waves from the perspective of thermal comfort and optical visual comfort.

One of the biggest challenges of the current century is the phenomenon of climate change. The increase in the number and severity of natural disasters under the influence of climate change has led to unfortunate consequences in various economic, social and environmental dimensions in cities. On the other hand, in recent decades, global efforts and various perspectives have been presented to reduce the harmful consequences of climate change. One of the most important solutions in dealing with these issues is the urban resilience approach in response to climate change, which is called climate resilience. This research is in terms of practical purpose, in terms of combined method and in terms of nature, it is based on new methods of future science. According to the nature of this research, structural analysis, MIC MAC and Delphi methods have been used. The snowball method was used to complete the questionnaires, and finally, 80 electronic questionnaires with correct answers were obtained. The findings of the research show that the numerical difference between the influence and influence of environmental dimensions is more significant compared to other dimensions. The highest ranks of indirect influence are related to the variables of the first area, especially the provision of drinking water and healthy food and attention to the increase in urban open spaces. In general, among the 66 variables examined in this research, 30 variables have been selected as effective key variables for the resilience of Isfahan city. Also, in this research, only the credit variable has achieved the role of a strategic variable, and the way the variables are distributed along the axis of influence - direct and indirect influence, shows the instability of the system. Finally, it can be concluded that for any planning in the direction of resilience of Isfahan city against climate change, it is necessary to pay attention to the key and fundamental role of these variables and factors

the current research has been carried out with the aim of evaluating possible scenarios in the formation of the ecological city of Shandiz, the tourist star of Khorasan Razavi province, in the horizon of 1410. To achieve this goal, six main steps of scenario writing were followed and quantitative and qualitative studies were carried out. done. At first, in the form of a questionnaire (in two dimensions, the degree of influence and uncertainty), 24 experts in the field of ecological city were asked for their opinion. By means of descriptive and inferential statistical tests, the effective factors of prioritization and then the critical drivers that shape the scenarios were determined. In order to determine the logic of the scenarios, develop the scenarios, examine the consequences and also determine the strategies, an interview was conducted with 20 experts who were selected by the theoretical saturation method with the semi-structured interview tool. The results of the research show that the three scenarios of ecological tourism stars, the unstable orbiting machine tourism city and the Iron Forest are conceivable for the future of Shandiz city in relation to the ecological city. Finally, strategies have been presented for the city of Shandiz to reach the desired scenario.

The expansion of urbanization and the accelerated growth of cities and the change of human life patterns towards modernity have created problems for cities, so that the city as a living entity has lost its freshness and vitalityit is necessary to reconsider the macro-management approaches and use new tools in planning. Futures studies as a new approach to build a desirable future is a process that leads to a sustainable result of planning. In this regard, the current research, using the future research approach, identifies the most important effective factors and examines the extent and how these factors influence each other and the state of realization of the happy city in Kermanshah metropolis. The current research has analyzed the variables of happy city in Kermanshah metropolis by using the technique of cross-effects analysis, which is one of the common and accepted methods of future research, and by using Micmac software. For this purpose, first by studying the available documents, all the factors involved in the realization and prosperity of happy city were analyzed and investigated. And using the Delphi method, 23 variables were extracted as the primary variables affecting happy city, in the following, the data analysis was done using the interaction/structural effects analysis method by Micmac software. The results of the research show that Kermanshah metropolis has an unstable system according to the dispersion of variables, and five categories (influential, bimodal, regulatory, influential and independent variables) can be identified in the dispersion plane. Finally, among the 23 identified variables, after examining the extent and how these variables affect each other and the future state of Kermanshah metropolis with direct and indirect methods, 10 key factors (equitable distribution of urban facilities and services and possibility Balanced access for space users, the existence of suitable spaces for spending leisure timestation canopies, etc.), creation of collective places for celebration and happiness and joyful events, The use of night lighting, the availability of space and various stores with the supply of various goods) that play the greatest role in the realization of a happy city in the future of Kermanshah metropolis were selected.

The purpose of this research is the comparative model of loyalty. The research method was applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology. The statistical population of the research included Iranian and Chinese tourists and 18 prominent university professors and experts. The tool asked by the researcher was tourism satisfaction, the reliability of the questionnaire using Cronbach's alpha is 0.81, the data was collected using NetLogo, and the 5 components that had the most impact on the tourism of the two countries were based on the opinions of experts. In response to the relevant questionnaires, among the influential factors, in the study of tourists' wages. We measured the internal relationships of components and sub-components with this software، In this research, first, five factors with the dimensions stated in the model were measured on satisfaction, and the mutual effects of the factors were identified using the software based on the basis of different scenarios (pessimistic, favorable and optimistic). In order to accommodate the loyalty of tourism, which also the simulation results show that the more up-to-date facilities such as smart technology, facilities, manpower training and the moderation of strict government policy and the level of advertising, and bring the tourist's expectations closer to the moderation level, the more trips will be made. It is between Iran and China. The most influential variable of intelligentization, which is a new approach to develop tourism and attract tourists in countries, and provide services that satisfy tourists and as a result, the continuation of tourism loyalty in the future of this industry.

Given that the physical quality of urban architecture in the 10th district of Tehran is facing, it is important to formulate the physical quality of urban architecture through the change of psychological components of the environment in this area. The main purpose of the research is to develop the physical quality of urban architecture (residential buildings) through the analysis of the psychological dimensions of the environment in the 10th district of Tehran to improve urban architecture for users, and the question is how to analyze and analyze the psychological dimensions. The environment developed urban architectural quality improvement strategies for users? A quantitative-quality method was used to answer this question. The research method is descriptive-analytical and the method of gathering information is a library and field studies with a questionnaire tool. Data analysis was also performed by the method of inductive reasoning and the use of one -way variance analysis and regression. The results showed that the main dimensions are categorized in functional, environmental, cultural, and motivational areas, and each of these dimensions has different components, the use of each of these micro -components together enhances the quality of residential buildings, followed by urban architecture. It becomes. Accordingly, the physical quality of the architecture of residential buildings by changing the psychological components of the environment in the 10th city of Tehran is: Understanding the nature of building materials that are sustainable in their nature and are in harmony with the region. While paying attention to the symbolic role of color and form in the body of residential buildings, both in terms of physical quality and in terms of improving and promoting motivational components of residents of the 10th district of Tehran, or as a significant element in urban architecture of this area, which can emotions and perceptions of individuals. To engage and improve their mentality for the quality of urban architecture in the area.

Lack of attention to the future in the tourism policies of Iran and insisting on the model of "planning based on the current situation" has led to the adoption of very inefficient policies to manage sports tourism destinations. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the future of sports tourism destinations based on identifying the factors leading to possible scenarios up to the time horizon of 1410, which has been done through a case study in Isfahan province. The research method of this study is survey. Research data were collected using three methods interview, theoretical literature review and weighted questionnaires. The statistical population of the study included 14 experts in the field of sports tourism. Data analysis was performed using structural analysis and scenario analysis. The findings showed that Isfahan sports tourism system is an unstable system with 16 scenarios including two unlikely scenarios, seven inconsistent scenarios, two low-probabilities, three medium-probability and two high-probability scenarios.The sixth scenario is the most likely scenario for the 10-year future of Isfahan province. Based on this scenario, investment in sports tourism infrastructure is stagnant or declining, and there will be no intelligent policy for the development of sports tourism. For this reason, The lack of a unified and coherent policy with the ability of continuous and dynamic updating at the national level, has led to the vulnerability of sports tourism destinations in Isfahan province. Therefore, the most important strategies and future planning actions should be focused on policy-making at the provincial level.

The transformation of the traditional shopping spaces from the market and the street to the indiscriminate construction of shopping malls has caused "property" to become the dominant approach of urban management. All kinds of shopping spaces are conquering the city without a comprehensive understanding of their formation philosophy and typology. Looking at the future, this way of developing shopping centers in today's cities is an undeniable necessity. Considering this importance, in this article, the future of shopping centers has been examined from the perspective of the identity of Iranian-Islamic cities. In order to answer the research questions from the descriptive-analytical method and the logical reasoning approach (cultural-discourse) and the structural analysis approach in tandem, using library and documentary studies and questionnaires (in order to clarify the conceptual model and evaluate its reliability and validity and also using the technique of structural analysis and scenario writing) has been used. According to the research done and the conceptual model of the research, the desirability variables of shopping centers from the perspective of the identity of Iranian-Islamic cities consist of twenty-two (22) variables in the form of six (6) components. The results of this article show the high orientation of the scenario of continuing the status quo towards the urban anti-utopian scenario. This indicates the neglect of the context of cities in the development of shopping centers in the city's management and decision-making layers. Paying attention to the points raised in the Iranian-Islamic city models can put an informed path of development in front of the specialists and city planners

This article was written with the aim of predicting the process of climate change in Tehran. In this article, the status of rainfall and temperature (minimum and maximum) of Tehran was reviewed at geophysical, Shemiranat and Mehrabad synoptic stations during the 1992 to 2018 period and was used to identify the existence of leaps and revelations of the years of mutation. It was also used to predict climate elements in Tehran using CMIP5 data and Lars model for three scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. Results of the Time Time and Rainfall Series Trends of the Three Stations Investigated in Tehran, using my Kendall process analysis test, showed that in the case of none of the climatic factors in the three stations under investigation, a significant change in P_Value = confidence level = 0.05 did not occur. But many annual mutations and fluctuations were observed in the temperature and rainfall series. Also, the results of the climatic parameters of the minimum, maximum and precipitation temperature parameters showed that the minimum temperature and maximum by 2050 compared to the base period (1992 to 2018) in all three carbon dioxide emission lines RCP2.6 , RCP4.5, RCP8.5, will be significantly increased in all three studies. But rainfall will be significantly reduced by 1.7 mm per month compared to the base period of 1992 to 2018 in all three carbon dioxide emissions in all three stations