مجله سیاست گذاری اقتصادی
سال پانزدهم شماره 29 (بهار و تابستان 1402)

Pricing of gasoline and the necessity of reforms in this area are perpetual concerns among experts and policymakers of the country. By allocating a large volume of subsidy to gasoline, not only has the main goal of supporting the poor classes of the society remained unrealized, but it has also created various problems such as excessive consumption, smuggling, and the spread of pollution. In this study, an effort is made to propose a new pricing policy for gasoline with the aim of reducing poverty in the society. In this scenario, a certain allocation (60 liters per month at a fixed price of 15000 Rials) will be preserved, and only non-allocated gasoline will be subject to a floating price and a 5% tax based on consumption. This study introduces a scenario and examines its effects on various types of poverty (absolute and relative) compared to the current situation.

The gasoline consumption data of 78255 households residing in the provinces of the country during the years 2017-2020 were collected and categorized into four groups (less than 60 liters, 60 to 80 liters, 80 to 120 liters, and more than 120 liters). This was based on the view that the amount of gasoline consumption is a part of the household income. The data were derived from expenditure surveys conducted by the Statistical Center of Iran. By employing an ideal demand system model and seemingly unrelated regression method, the share of nine selected commodity groups from the household consumption basket, including (food, clothing and footwear, housing, water, sewage, fuel, lighting, health and medical services; gasoline; transportation excluding gasoline; cultural and recreational services, prepared foods, hotels, and restaurants, and other goods and services) were examined while taking into account demographic variables including household size, gender, age, marital status, employment status, education, and home ownership of the heads of households. Price and income elasticities were extracted, the Compensating Variation (CV) measure of changes was calculated, and household cost information, poverty (absolute and relative) simulation and estimation were conducted, assuming the implementation of the proposed scenario.

The income elasticity of gasoline demand is less than one for all consumption categories. This elasticity has the highest value for consumption categories of less than 60 liters per month (the monthly allocation) and indicates a higher sensitivity of this category compared to other gasoline consumption categories. With the increase of income, the gasoline consumption of this group, as it has not yet reached its saturation point, increases more than other groups. For non-rationed consumption, there is a positive income elasticity trend alongside an increase in gasoline consumption, indicating that gasoline consumption also increases with increasing income. The elasticity of gasoline price showed that this commodity is essential for households, and an increase in its price has no significant effect on their consumption. Nevertheless, gasoline consumers within the monthly rationed range (60 liters) have a stronger reaction to price changes, and any price change affects the basic needs of households belonging to this consumption category. Households belonging to the consumption category of more than 120 liters have the lowest price elasticity, and it is necessary to change the pricing method to make them sensitive to the price of gasoline. Implementing the proposed scenario and imposing taxes on the consumption exceeding the allocated ration for households will result in changes in the welfare of households based on their level of consumption. To estimate the Compensating Variation (CV), the percentage change in the allocated budget share of the commodity group, the approximate relative price changes, and Hicksian price elasticity (compensation) were calculated. By implementing the policy of imposing taxes on excess consumption, households that consume between 60 to 80 liters of gasoline monthly will receive an additional 800,467 Rials for their welfare, and households with consumption between 80 to 120 liters and over 120 liters monthly will lose 5,843,089 Rials and 21,361,290 Rials of welfare, respectively. After adding and subtracting the calculated welfare to household expenses, simulations were performed, and poverty (absolute and relative) was recalculated. The results showed that adding welfare to low-consumption households reduces the poverty rate compared to the current situation. Among the demographic variables examined, except for the virtual age variable, which has an inverse relationship with gasoline consumption, the other demographic variables including household size, home ownership, gender, education, employment, income ownership, and marital status of the heads of households have significant and direct relationships with gasoline consumption.

Conclusion and Policy Implications:

 Currently, the policy of stabilizing gasoline prices in a two-tiered system (allocated and non-allocated prices) is being implemented, which will not be a logical solution in inflationary conditions. A solution needs to be proposed to partially amend and control the gasoline consumption pattern while taking into account the social-political dimensions of pricing reforms. Therefore, in this study, the scenario of non-allocated gasoline pricing proportional to the level of consumption was analyzed as a proposed solution. The results showed that implementing the proposed scenario leads to a reduction in poverty (absolute and relative). This finding has a significant impact on the decision-making of policymakers in order to improve the level of welfare in the society.

Late in 2019, the corona virus outbreak caused complex economic issues and substantially impacted the global economy. Governments resorted to non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social isolation and mandatory quarantines to combat the ever-increasing spread of this virus. These restrictions, which are referred to as a non-vaccine intervention, have been criticized by some economists, and this led to the formation of the topic of the government's actions against the spread of the virus. What effect has it had on the economy and especially macro–variables? In the economic cycle, the imposition of restrictions and quarantine and measures like these have caused a decrease in the supply of labor, a decrease in the activity of enterprises, their production and the gross domestic production. Considering the possibility of the economic costs of these interventions imposed on the economies of countries, the current research attempts to investigate the economic effects of non-pharmacological measures taken during the period of the COVID-19 spread in a number of developed and developing nations.

This study aims to examine the impact of non-pharmaceutical government interventions on the gross domestic production (GDP) of developing and developed nations during the period of 2020 to 2022. This is done with seasonal data, and, for each country, the panel generalized moments model (Panel GMM) is utilized. Therefore, the following model is estimated for each group of countries: where Gdp represents  at constant prices in 2015,  represents the degree of trade openness, represents the number of tourists,  represents the government stringency index, and  represents the number of new COVID cases.

The results of the panel GMM estimation indicate that the previous-period GDP had a positive and significant effect on the current-period GDP in both developed and developing countries. The degree of trade openness has a positive and significant effect on the GDP in both developed and developing countries, such that a one-percent increase in the trade openness raises the GDP by 0.026% in developed countries and by 0.634% in developing countries. The results from both categories of the studied countries indicate that the number of tourists entering the country had a positive and statistically significant effect on the GDP. In developed countries, a one-percent increase in the number of incoming tourists results in a 0.107% increase in the GDP, while, in developing countries, it results in a 0.03% increase in the GDP. The government austerity index, which is used to evaluate the economic costs of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic, has had a negative and significant impact on the GDP of both developed and developing countries. This indicates that government austerity has a negative and significant effect on economic growth. It is that non-medicinal government interventions to control the epidemic have resulted in a decline in the gross domestic production of countries. The findings indicate that a one-percent increase in the government austerity index decreases the GDP by 0.03 percent in established nations and by 0.001 percent in developing ones. This difference in the estimated coefficient indicates that the austerity index had a greater negative impact on the GDP of developed nations. The variable coefficient for the number of newly infected individuals differs in developed and developing nations. In developed nations, this coefficient is negative and statistically significant. The number obtained for this coefficient in this group of countries indicates that, as predicted, a one-percent increase in the number of new cases of COVID-19 has resulted in a 0.001% decrease in the GDP, whereas, in developing countries, a one-percent increase in the number of new cases of the disease has resulted in a 0.009% increase in the GDP.

Conclusion and Policy Implications: 

Due to the rapid global spread of COVID-19, the government's role in controlling and overcoming this situation has been undeniable and indispensable. Therefore, it is recommended that governments stimulate aggregate demand and increase their expenditure (G) through various monetary and financial channels, such as lowering interest rates, providing packages and support facilities, and reducing taxes. Since effective vaccines were not yet discovered at the beginning of the spread of this virus and, therefore, it was necessary and natural for governments to adopt preventative austerity measures, it is suggested that, in such critical times, governments could be warned to increase information regarding the economic cost and negative effects of non-pharmaceutical measures on the country. The results of this research provide policymakers with the possibility of future epidemics of comparable or even greater magnitude than COVID-19. This index measures the economic costs incurred by the government during these times. It suggests that, by understanding and analyzing such costs in similar circumstances, organizations can modify their strategies or develop support mechanisms to reduce the cost and external effects of such actions.

Monetary policies serve to create economic stability and maintain price stability. It is one of the central bank's powers to implement monetary policies. In other words, the central bank has the necessary freedom of action to use its policy tools in operational goals in order to influence its intermediate goals, i.e. the growth of the volume of money and liquidity in order to achieve its ultimate goals, i.e. economic growth and price stabilization. Considering the negative effects of uncertain conditions on the country's economic situation due to the uncertain future of the country's economy, evaluating the effects of monetary policies on the exchange rate in uncertain conditions and the value added of economic sectors (industry, agriculture and services) is of undeniable importance. This can prevent harmful effects addressed in this research.

In order to meet the research goals, the required data were gathered from Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Parliament Research Center of Iran and the input-output table of the central bank of Iran (CBI). Also, dynamic computable general equilibrium models were divided into interim and recursive categories. The interim models are based on the optimum growth theorem which assumes that economic agents have the ability of complete prediction, while this is not correct in many economic circumstances, especially in developing countries. Hence, many economic experts believe that recursive models are more trustable. This research is conducted based on the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (RDCGE) model and impulse response functions (IRF) through making shocks on monetary policy indexes including the increase in liquidity volume (2%, 5% and 10%). In addition, the data are analyzed with the Matlab software.

The results showed that the shock caused by a 5% increase in liquidity increases the exchange rate by 0.29% in the first period, 0.66% in the second period, 0.97% in the third period, and then it is neutralized. The shock caused by a 10% increase in liquidity increases the exchange rate by 1.06% in the first period, 1.46% in the second period, 1.98% in the third period, and then it is neutralized. The shock caused by the 20% growth of liquidity increases the exchange rate by 1.17% in the first period, 2.21% in the second period, 3.08% in the third period, and then it gets neutralized. In general, it can be concluded that the shocks of the increase in the liquidity, due to the increase in the total volume of money, leads to a decrease in the value of the national currency versus foreign currencies. The price of the US dollar thus increases inside the country.The shock caused by a 5% increase in the liquidity reduces the value added of the industry and mining sector by 2.65% in the first period, by 3.19% in the second period, and then it gets neutralized. The shock caused by the 10% growth of liquidity reduces the value added of the industry and mining sector by 3.03% in the first period, by 4.00% in the second period, and then it is neutralized. The shock caused by the 20% growth of the volume of liquidity reduces the value added of the industry and mining sector by 4.33% in the first period, by 5.04% in the second period and then is neutralized. In general, it can be concluded that the shocks of the increase in the liquidity lead to an increase in the inflation rate and production costs and, finally, it reduces the value added of the industry-mining sector.The shock caused by a 5% increase in the volume of liquidity reduces the value added of the service sector by 1.97% in the first period, by 2.24% in the second period, and then it gets neutralized. The shock caused by the 10% growth of liquidity reduces the value added of the service sector by 2.63% in the first period, by 3.05% in the second period, and then it is neutralized. The shock caused by the 20% growth of liquidity reduces the value added of the service sector by 3.81% in the first period, by 4.01% in the second period, and then it is neutralized. In general, it can be concluded that the shocks of increasing the liquidity lead to an increase in the inflation rate and the cost of services and, finally, it reduces the value added of the service sector.The shock caused by a 5% increase in the liquidity reduces the value added of the agricultural sector by 1.16% in the first period, by 2.09% in the second period, and then it is neutralized. The shock caused by a 10% increase in the liquidity reduces thevalue added of the agricultural sector by 2.03% in the first period, by 2.89% in the second period, and then it becomes neutral. The shock caused by the 20% growth in the liquidity reduces the value added of the agricultural sector by 2.67% in the first period, by 3.19% in the second period, and then it is neutralized. In general, it can be concluded that the shocks of increasing the liquidity lead to an increase in the inflation rate and the production costs of the agricultural sector and, finally, it reduces the value added of the agricultural sector.

Conclusion and Policy Implications:

 It can be concluded that, among the examined economic sectors, the shock caused by the increase in volume of liquidity has a more negative effect on the value added of the industry, mining, services and agriculture sectors, respectively. Considering the positive effect of exchange rate fluctuations and uncertainty on increase in liquidity and, as a result, the reduction of the value added of economic sectors, it is suggested to policy makers to avoid the decisions that cause disturbances and fluctuations in the currency market. Finally, the central bank should pay attention to the impact coefficient of each shock on the value added of each economic sector and apply economic decisions considering these effects and the target sector considered as the leading sector.

Despite the fact that there is consensus regarding the effects of inflation and the need to deal with it, the determinants of inflation, the evolution of the relationship between them, and the comparison of the intensity and weakness of each one is areas of controversy. Meanwhile, the frequency of exchange rate and liquidity in the corresponding studies stand out more than other variables. It is recommended to follow the exchange rate transition theory to control inflation through this channel. It is also necessary to control monetary aggregates according to what the monetarists have depicted about the origin of inflation across space and over time.Regardless of the intensity and weakness of the influences of the two variables in the context of time and in different horizons, inspired by the revealed facts and the support of the literature, what makes the problem more complex is the likelihood of the flow of causality to change between the variables. Therefore, although the effects of liquidity and exchange rate on inflation have been investigated in several studies, the reported results are not consistent. This situation can have different reasons, the discovery of which improves the cognitive processing power and provides immediate requirements for adopting efficient policies.In this direction, attention is paid to the intertwining of the above three variables, knowing the net effect of liquidity (exchange rate) on inflation by removing the effect of exchange rate (liquidity), and investigating the possibility of its change over time and in short-term and long-term horizons. In terms of intensity and flow of causation, it can be useful and become the subject of policy making.

The Granger causality test is a regular method of econometrics in which the causal relationship between time series is examined without referring to economic theories. According to its nature, this method provides a momentary measure of causality but is unable to analyze the dynamics and reliability of causality. In addition, in the Granger causality method, intermittent values of variables are used, and, as a result, there will be a possibility of eliminating instantaneous effects. To solve this problem, spectral analysis is used. Fourier transform is one of the widely used topics in spectrum analysis, which serves to reveal the existing relationships between time series at different frequencies. Due to the fluctuating nature of the correlation among some economic time series, it is investigated in the analysis. The dynamics of causality can also be used. In the Fourier transform, in addition to the local time information being left out, the stability of the hypothetical time series is essential. However, many time series are unstable and most of their characteristics change over time. Due to this limitation, the wavelet transform is considered as a useful alternative to the Fourier transform in discovering causal relationships. The present research investigated the relationship of liquidity growth and exchange rate with inflation. For this purpose, seasonal data from 1990 to 2022 and continuous wavelet transformation were used. The distinguishing feature of the research was the use of multiple coherence tools, partial coherence, partial phase difference and partial wavelet gain.

The results of the multiple correlation showed that, in the context of time and in the horizons of less than eight years, the growth of liquidity and the exchange rate are simultaneously a suitable explanation for the changes in inflation (similar to the coefficient of determination in the regression). Coherence, phase difference and partial wave interest showed that the growth of the exchange rate on all scales (up to 8 years) and over time creates inflationary pressure, the corresponding coefficient of which is less than 0.5. Liquidity growth and inflation have experienced an unstable relationship in terms of intensity, direction and flow of causality. So, within 1.5-4 years in the late 2010s, the growth of liquidity had a strong effect on inflation. In the horizon of 4-8 years in the 1997-2001, 2006-2011, and 2019-2020 periods, this pattern was repeated. This is important due to the inflationary conditions and the government budget. Liquidity following inflation has also happened on different scales, which can be attributed to the internalization of money in Iran's economy.

Conclusion and Policy Implications: 

The results have two important policy implications as follows:As long as the growth of the exchange rate and liquidity-induced inflationary pressure are concerned, the effect of the exchange rate is always little and stable. Therefore, it is suggested that exchange rate changes be included in the dynamics of inflation considered by the policy maker. This important point will not occur, unlike the current procedure which mainly occurs with the pattern of repression and mutation due to the inability to suppress. Therefore, instead of nominally anchoring the exchange rate, it is necessary for the policy maker to commit to maintain stability in the growth of the exchange rate so that the effects of inflation will be less.Although the growth of liquidity has not created inflationary pressure in all the years ever since this relationship was established, the effects will be severe and destructive for the general level of prices. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent the transfer of discontent in the economy and monetize them, regardless of setting a horizon on inflation and expecting immediate effects. To this end, it is necessary to reduce the budget deficit and the imbalance in the banking system as two sources of liquidity expansion. In addition, it is not enough to look at the past history of liquidity following inflation and target liquidity growth; it should base a tool to guide monetary policy. Therefore, in addition to using the common monetary policy tool (interest rate), it is necessary to consider the control of monetary totals so that the monetary policy can achieve its original goals.

Improving economic conditions and the quality of life is part of the goal of achieving economic development. The tourism industry as a dynamic industry with distinct characteristics can share an important part of the countries' economic and production activities.In this respect, the tourism sector can play an important role as a driving force of economic development. The impact that this industry can have in different stages of economic development depends on the specific characteristics of the country. Given the complexity of tourism consumption, its economic impact is felt widely in other production sectors, contributing in each case to achieving the aims of accelerated development. The tourism industry affects the economic growth of countries in both direct and indirect ways. Tourism can contribute to the goal of the balanced development of different regions in a country because the income from it can lead to economic growth and the balanced development of different regions of a country by creating jobs, boosting economic activities and generating income. Therefore, it is important to identify the economic effects of tourism development in different regions of the country according to the local capacities. With its rich history and ancient civilization, Isfahan has many historical and religious monuments and is considered as one of the centers of tourism in the center of the country. Therefore, considering the potential of Isfahan, the question to rise is ‘how can tourism in this city affect the local economy?’ In this regard, the current research measures the effectiveness of domestic tourism in Isfahan Province on the production of the province and the national economy. To this end, the two-region input-output approach is used.

Over the past decades, introducing the concept of regional planning and applications of the input-output model in this context have led researchers and policy-makers to consider regional input-output tables more seriously. Since survey-based methods of providing input-output tables are expensive and time-consuming and regional data are poor in Iran, non-survey based methods, especially location quotient (LQ), are the most common methods for providing regional input-output tables in this country. In recent years, LQ method and its various functions have significantly evolved, and the SFLQ function has been introduced.Among the methods of spatial contribution, the industrial specific spatial contribution method of Flag SFLQ has been used to extract a provincial input-output table. This can maximize the number of spatial economy factors included in the coefficient of spatial contribution. It can also minimize statistical errors. Furthermore, the two-regional input-output table model has been used toinvestigate the effect of tourism expenditures on the production in Isfahan Province and the national economy. So, a two-region input-output table, production coefficients and spillover effects have been estimated.Considering the tourists' investment in the export of Isfahan Province and an increase in the final demand of the province (), the rise of production due to the arrival of domestic tourists in Isfahan Province is estimated with Equation:The production effect of the domestic tourism in the province is evaluated through Equation: The productive spillover effect of the arrival of domestic tourists in Isfahan Province on other national economic sectors is equal to ..This is how the effectiveness of domestic tourism in Isfahan on the production of the province and the national economy is estimated.

In the current research, the effect of domestic tourists entering Isfahan Province was studied using a two-region input-output table. Therefore, firstly, the table is estimated for Isfahan Province and the other national economies at the level of 20 sectors using the SFLQ method. Then, after calculating the multiplier coefficients of production, the effect of the arrival and expenditure of domestic tourists in Isfahan on the national economy and the economy of the province is examined. Calculation of extra-regional or spillover effects for both regions is also done in this research. The results of the research show that the arrival of domestic tourists in Isfahan Province in 2016 increased the production of this province by 4325 billion Rials. The arrival of domestic tourists in Isfahan not only increased the production of the province but also had an extra-regional impact of 69 billion Rials on production. As a result, the effect of tourists entering in the province at the national level, which is obtained from its total effect on Isfahan and the other national economies, is 4394 billion Rials. In addition, based on the results of the research, "Other Services" and "Transportation" sectors have been most affected by the arrival of domestic tourists. Next to them, the "Food, Beverage and Tobacco Industries" sector is prioritized. These results are not far from expected because the arrival of tourists is mostly under the service sectors including accommodation costs, cultural and sports costs, costs of buying souvenirs, etc., and costs including those related to transportation and food.

Conclusion and Policy Implications:

 Given the broad role of tourism in economic prosperity, the purpose of the present study is to answer the question ‘What is the impact of incoming tourism in Isfahan Province on the production of that region and other regions?’ To this end, the national input-output table of 2016, published by the Central Bank, was prepared based on the method of generalized SFLQ spatial contribution in twenty sections and for two regions of the province and other national economies. Then, the effectiveness of domestic tourism in Isfahan was examined. The results of the present study show that the entry of tourists into an area, in addition to affecting the production of the region itself, has an external impact on other national economies.The results of the research also show that the arrival of domestic tourists in Isfahan Province in 2016 increased the production of this province by 4325 billion Rials. In addition, it not only increased the production of Isfahan but also had an extra-regional impact of 69 billion Rials on production.

Financial instability refers to a situation in which the economy has suffered losses and problems under the influence of asset price fluctuations or the poor performance of financial institutions in fulfilling their obligations. Fluctuations in asset prices and unstable performance in the country's financial markets have led to the spread of instability and this has shown the weak financial depth in the country's financial markets. The financial instability index is created from the change in the amount of interest rate variables, financial depth, internal credit provided to the private sector, internal credit provided by the banking sector, liquidity, bank liabilities, traded stock value and stock market turnover. Risk and return indicators such as interest rate and liquidity include those that show that financial risk increases or decreases and therefore can disrupt the stability of the financial sector. Also, the interest rate is an estimator of the efficiency of the banking sector, and with its increase, loans are taken by more risk-taking people, and bank arrears increase, and more loans are used in the buying and selling of assets and speculation, and this indicates financial instability. On the other hand, one of the criteria of an efficient and stable financial system is that it supports economic activities in a proportionate way and by allocating and providing facilities in the appropriate amount, it can improve investment and consumption, because providing and increasing facilities too much can be a risk. impose on the economy and financial system and lead to the occurrence of crisis and instability, therefore the growth of facilities and the growth of the ratio of facilities to GDP can be a measure for the occurrence of instability and crisis.

The purpose of this paper was to investigate the effects of financial instability on macroeconomic variables in Iran. For this purpose, the statistical information of the period 1988-2021 has been used based on the frequency of seasonal data. In order to model the effects of financial instability on macroeconomic variables, we used the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model.

The results showed that the shock caused by financial instability led to an increase in interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and production deviation and also led to a decrease in the growth of consumption, investment and banking facilities.According to the obtained results, it can be stated that financial instability through the mechanism of inefficiency in the allocation of resources and non-optimal allocation of resources has led to disturbance in the movement of financial resources from savers to investors, which has resulted in instability. In economic growth and as a result it causes disturbance in macroeconomic variables. The results obtained from the financial instability shock showed that it has led to an increase in the inflation rate through the change in the bank interest rate, and this issue itself has affected the increase in the exchange rate in the country's economy. Also, the relationship between financial instability and the performance of the real sector of the economy has also been two-way. The financial status of economic enterprises is one of the factors that affect the level of financial instability in an economy, when borrowers do not have the ability to repay their debts, a kind of financial pressure is imposed on both parties, that is, the borrower and lender. This financial pressure can accelerate financial instability and therefore this factor leads to disruption in economic activities including production and investment.

Conclusion and Policy Implications: 

According to the results, there are the close relationship between the financial sector and the real sector of the economy. In the financial industry, mistakes made by management can have significant external impacts in addition to individual financial sector problems. Therefore, it is necessary for the financial business to be regulated and the financial supervisor monitors the risks of financial sector. However, systemic risks are related to the structure of the financial sector business model. Furthermore, there is always the possibility that one of the thousands of financial sectors may face overwhelming risks, which can lead to doubts and problems being directed towards the entire industry.Financial instability is a real or expected threat to financial markets or financial institutions due to an event, which could potentially, if public authorities do not intervene, lead to problems. Recent events are a mixture of the situation, broader themes, and individual mistakes. Each event and crisis are unique, so while generalizations can be made, caution must be exercised.Also, the implementation of unconventional policies in the markets, such as the purchase and supply of bonds, can lead to a decrease in financial instability in the economy through the channel of expectations. In the end, non-violation of the announced policies by policymakers will be the most important factor in reducing financial instability. Also, considering the uncertainty and risk in the financial and banking sector of the economy, it can be said that the most important obstacle for economic activists to start or develop their own businesses is the lack of financial resources to meet capital needs. Obtaining the necessary funds to start their businesses has always been an important issue for participants in economic projects. If it is difficult and time-consuming to obtain the required funds, it will discourage them from economic activity, and without sufficient financing, their activities will not be successful. Therefore, the reduction in financial instability and the increase in the efficiency of financial institutions can have positive effects on the economy through financing.

In the literature of macroeconomics and Iranian economy, there is a significant relationship expected to be among economic growth, money supply and inflation. However, regarding the manner and the direction of the causal relationship among these economic variables, various opinions have been expressed, but there is no consensus. In recent decades, various countries in many parts of the world have implemented policies with increasing emphasis on price stability, money supply control and increasing economic growth. In Iran's economy, achieving this goal is considered as one of the most important goals of policy makers and economic planners. Currently, lack of coherence and lack of internal consistency of the government's economic policies and specifically the program of the country's economic administration from the perspective of macroeconomic variables are among the basic challenges of the country's economy.

Due to the importance of the issue, the relationships among the variables of economic growth, liquidity volume and inflation rate were investigated through the Granger causality test and with the seasonal data related to Iran's economy in the period of 2004:1-2022:1. In this research, in order to test the quantile-based Granger causality, the ADF test and the quantile autoregressive unit root test (QAR) introduced by Xiao (2004) and Galva (2009) were used.

The results show that there is a two-way Granger causality relationship between economic growth and inflation in total quantiles. It should be noted that these results are not the same in all the quantiles. In the limit quantiles as well as the quantile of [0.55, 0.6], the causality relationship is two-way, but, in the rest of the quantiles, it is one-way. For example, in the middle quantile (0.5), the causality relationship is one-way from inflation to economic growth and, in the 0.35 quantile, it is from economic growth to inflation. In general, it should be noted that the causality relationship from inflation to economic growth is established in more quantiles than the causality from economic growth to inflation. Regarding the direction of causality, the results show that, in all the quantiles, the causality from economic growth to inflation is negative, and the causality from inflation to economic growth is positive in quantiles [0.05-0.75] and negative in rest of them.Regarding the causal relationship between liquidity and economic growth, the results show that there is a one-way causal relationship between these two variables in total quantiles. This relationship is, thus, from liquidity to economic growth. However, in some quantiles such as the 0.15 or 0.25 quantiles, there is also evidence for a causal relationship from liquidity growth to economic growth. It is noteworthy that, in the initial quantiles [0.05-0.25], the sign of causality is negative in the sense that economic growth can reduce liquidity growth. However, in other quantiles, the effect of economic growth on liquidity growth is positive. Also, the effect of liquidity growth on economic growth is negative in most quantiles. This is in the sense that an increase in liquidity growth causes a decrease in economic growth.The evidence shows that, in Iran's economy, worrying about the increase in the inflation rate is not considered a significant problem in terms of creating economic growth. Regarding the causal relationship between liquidity and inflation, in all the quantiles, there is a one-way relationship between liquidity volume and inflation. Regarding the direction of causality, the results show that the effect of liquidity on inflation is asymmetrical and non-linear. The results regarding the effect of inflation on liquidity growth are generally positive. This proves the increases need for liquidity of the economy in the conditions of rising inflation.

Conclusion and Policy Implications:

 In general, in order to save the country from this challenge, an economic stability program must be formulated and implemented. Of course, people's mentality and expectations also play a fundamental role in curbing inflation. Monetary and financial reforms will lead to containment of inflation and economic crisis. The reforms that ultimately lead to the reduction of the inflation rate will be followed by an increase in economic stability and the flourishing of the economy. In this regard, it is necessary for the government and the central bank to achieve key goals such as reducing inflation and increasing the rate of economic growth in order to have a detailed and scientific plan. To achieve this goal, the amount of liquidity should be controlled and inflationary expectations should be reduced by adopting appropriate policies. It is hoped that using the successful experiences of other countries and taking advantage of the results of reliable and strong economic research will significantly decrease the inflation rate in Iran in the next few years, and the country will join the group of more than 100 countries with an inflation rate below five percent.

Brain drain is one of the most critical challenges facing developing countries. Educated and skilled people migrate from these countries to more economically stable ones. Brain drain can reduce the capabilities and economic growth in developing countries. Human capital is significant in the theories of economic growth; as a result, less developed countries, as a source of brain drain, mainly face problems such as a low economic growth rate and a high unemployment rate. Another consequence that the countries of brain drain origin are faced with is the reduction of the economic well-being of the society. This is because productivity decreases with the removal of human capital and the government is forced to increase the cost of education. One of the ways to reduce the problem of brain drain is to raise the level of life expectancy and increase people's satisfaction and self-confidence. For this purpose, it is necessary to improve living conditions and create suitable job opportunities in countries with a low level of human development. In addition, raising education and knowledge can increase people's capabilities and improve working conditions in countries. Political instability is one of the most severe obstacles to a country's economic growth and development. The lack of political stability can lead to decreased investment, increased inflation, and economic and social problems. A low level of political stability has a negative effect on economic and financial development. This is because political instability causes an increase in risk and uncertainty in economic contracts, the structure of property rights, and tax policies for entrepreneurs. Improving the political stability of a country is an essential step toward achieving economic growth and development; countries with higher political stability have more power to create wealth. Nowadays, Brain drain is a critical issue in developing countries. Low income, high unemployment, discrimination, and lack of social justice are the main reasons for brain drain. Developing countries face political, economic and financial instability; as a result, skilled and talented individuals seek better welfare and job opportunities in developed countries. This study aims to investigate the impacts of country risk and human development on brain drain in 106 countries. To achieve the goal of the study, the countries in question are divided into three groups including countries with a low political risk (44 countries), a medium political risk (48), and a high political risk (14 countries) from 2007 to 2020. The research is conducted through the fixed panel method, the standard generalized method of moments, and two-stage generalized method of moments. The results of the research show that country risk and its sub-indices in all the three groups of countries have a positive effect on increasing brain drain. This effect is greater in countries with medium and high political risk levels. Also, the human development index negatively and significantly affects the brain drain in the studied countries. To reduce the level of brain drain, it is suggested for policymakers to give priority to providing suitable conditions for business and investment in the country so as to increase job opportunities and improve economic conditions.

In this research, both one- and two-step methods have been used to prevent single effects. Two tests are proposed to ensure the appropriateness of using this method for estimating the model. Initially, the Sargan test is used to demonstrate the validity of the instrumental variables. The second test includes a) the first-order correlation test AR and b) the second-order AR. According to Arellano and Bond (1992), in GMM estimation, the disruptive terms should have first-order serial correlation, not second-order one (Arellano & Bover, 1995).

The results indicate that country risk and its sub-indices positively affect brain drain in countries with low, medium, and high political risks. However, this effect is more potent in medium- and high-political-risk countries. The human development index also negatively and significantly impacts brain drain in all countries. As an important finding, the effect of country risk and its sub-indices on brain drain in countries with low political risk levels is less than that in countries with medium and high political risks. In fact, in countries with low risk levels, the effect of uncertainty and the risk of brain drain is less; in these countries, investment security is high, and investment laws and regulations are usually substantial. Moreover, Human development can be considered as one of the factors to reduce brain drain. Poverty and unemployment will decrease by increasing education, improving health, and increasing access to economic opportunities, job opportunities, and entrepreneurship. Also, human development can improve living conditions and social security, reducing brain drain. As a comprehensive and inclusive solution, it can help to reduce brain drain in different countries.

Conclusion and Policy Implications:

 Brain drain has become a critical issue in poor and less developed countries. This issue in developing countries is primarily due to political, economic, and financial instability. For this reason, skilled and talented people migrate to advanced countries for better welfare conditions and job opportunities. This issue causes a decrease in human capital and, as a result, a reduction in the economic growth and development of the countries of origin. In addition, brain drain causes discrimination and social injustice in developing countries because people with high abilities migrate to developed countries, while people with fewer abilities and without particular expertise remain in their country of origin. The results indicate that country risk and its sub-indices positively affect brain drain in countries with low, medium and high levels of political risk. However, this effect is greater in countries with medium and high political risk levels. Also, the human development index negatively and significantly impacts brain drain in all the studied countries.

The high exchange intensity of economic sectors is not desirable in specific conditions such as embargo, economic wars, and dependence of the economy on oil. In Iran, production depends on the currency obtained from oil. This problem may cause Dutch disease in the country's economy and various activities to cope with the recession.In addition, the importation of intermediate goods constitutes more than 60% of the imports of Iran. With this level of dependence, the vulnerability of Iran's economy to currency wars and commercial and financial sanctions is significant. Therefore, imports in Iran's economy need to be managed and optimized. Hence, in this article, the factors affecting the exchange intensity changes of Iran's economic sectors are calculated in order to provide the possibility of optimizing intermediate imports.

The methodology of this research consists of two parts. First, a table is prepared for the desired output, and then it is used for analysis. In order to use the symmetric input-output table of activities, first, some tables are extracted from the consumption and supply values in recent years. Since the exchange rate in production sectors depends on the imports of intermediate goods and services, it is measured by intermediate imports and their changes. To eliminate the effects of the price changes in the 2011-2016 period, the fixed price analysis is performed. The second step of the work is the use of Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) method to examine the factors affecting the change of the exchange rate in Iran's manufacturing sectors from 2011 to 2016. The required data are provided from the input-output tables of the Central Bank of Islamic Republic of Iran, the Statistical Center of Iran and the customs import statistics of the Islamic Republic of Iran in these years.

Symmetric input-output tables of Iran have been prepared for 87 activities from 2011 to 2016. These tables were the basis of research calculations. To compare the tables of each, the selected tables have been harmonized according to the International Standard of Industry Classification (ISIC). Finally, through  the Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA), the effect of each of the factors of the import structure of activities (R), the share of imports in the production of activities (), the structure of production (L), the degree of mobility of activities in the economy (Z), the structure of final product components (S), final product composition (T), and total final product (O) have been calculated based on the changes in the valuation of activities from 2011 to 2016. The total production of the country in 2011 was 21920 trillion Rials at the price of 2016. This figure reached 23262 trillion Rials in 2016, with a growth of 6%.The calculation results show that, among the factors of the study, the effect of the change in the structure and the effect on the change in the desire for the activities from 2011 to 2016 were very insignificant. However, the changes in the production of three productive factors, the degree of mobilizing activities in the economy, and the composition of the final product have reduced the economic value of the economy. On the contrary, the changes of the contribution factors in the production of activities, the structure of the final product, and the sum of the final products have increased the desire of the production activities. In the meantime, the change in the production structure is the most important factor in reducing the exchange rate, and the change in the share of production in the activities has been the main factor in the enhancement of Iran's production activities. Also, the findings of the research show that the increase of final products production from 2011 to 2016 has led to an increase in the value of all economic activities.

Conclusion and Policy Implications:

 According to the findings of the research, the exchange rate for the supply of intermediate goods has increased by 231.7 trillion Rials. In the meantime, the final products have the greatest role in increasing the exchange rate. In contrast to the share of imports in the production of the sectors, it has the greatest role in reducing the exchange rate of the production sectors. At the level of production sectors, the "Public Affairs Administration" sector, with 1.51 trillion Rials of exchange rate decrease, has had the largest decrease among 78 production sectors of Iran. Moreover, the "animal breeding" sector, with an increase of 2.54 trillion Rials, has had the largest increase in the exchange rate of 78 economic sectors of the country.

Economic growth is influenced by two factors including the accumulation of production factors and the increase in efficiency. Efficiency is one of the important issues of the economy. Although its improvement is necessary for all countries, it is of double importance in developing countries, due to the lack of superior technology and more waste of resources and production inputs. Since the industry sector constitutes a high share of the gross domestic product and is of great importance due to its previous and subsequent connections with other economic sectors, the improvement of efficiency in this sector can lead to an increase in employment, production, and income in the entire economy. The industry sector is one of the significant energy-consuming sectors in every country, and the improvement of energy efficiency as one of the important policy tools plays an essential role in the growth of the industry. Therefore, this study examines the technical efficiency and scale of energy consumption of the industries in the provinces of the country. To this end, the non-parametric method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used. Also, the issue of targeting energy subsidies in 2019 has had a significant impact on the cost of energy consumption in the industrial sector of the country. On this basis, the present study analyzes the technical efficiency of energy in the years after the implementation of this law. Considering the difference in the share of energy consumption according to the type of energy carriers at the industry level, we have considered four leading energy carriers for the calculation of efficiency.

The research steps include defining an appropriate model for calculating technical efficiency, determining the type of DEA model in terms of input or output-oriented and the type of efficiency with regard to scale, collecting, calculating the technical efficiency and the scale of the industrial sector of each province, and finally analyzing the results. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a non-parametric linear programming method for evaluating the efficiency of decision-making units (DMU). The main advantage of this method compared to parametric methods such as the stochastic boundary function is that the shape of the distribution function and the production relations do not create a limit for it. In addition to technical efficiency, scale efficiency can be obtained for all units by calculating the ratio of technical efficiency in the state of constant efficiency to technical efficiency in the state of variable efficiency. The researchers used the input-oriented multi-stage DEA model with six inputs and one output to determine the technical efficiency and the energy consumption scale efficiency of the industrial sector in 31 provinces. In this model, the variables of labor force (people), formation of real fixed capital (million rials), consumption of natural gas, diesel, fuel oil and electricity (barrels equivalent of crude oil) in the industry sector of each province are the  inputs, and the actual output of the industry sector (million rials) in each province is considered as the output.

The results of technical and scale efficiency scores of industries in the provinces analyzed with the multi-stage DEA model during the years 2011-2019 show that, in 2011 (the beginning of the subsidies targeting), only active manufacturing industries in the provinces of Isfahan, Ilam, Bushehr, Tehran, Khorasan Razavi, North Khorasan, Khuzestan, Sistan and Baluchistan, Kermanshah, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, Gilan, Markazi, and Hormozgan were technically efficient. The inefficiency was higher in Lorestan, Golestan, Yazd, and West Azerbaijan provinces. Also, over time, when the effect of the increase in the price of energy carriers became more evident in the subsidy targeting law, the technical efficiency was relatively improved in most of the provinces. The noteworthy point here is that, among the efficient provinces, Tehran, Bushehr, Khuzestan, and Hormozgan have had the highest share of energy consumption. Ilam, Sistan and Baluchistan, Kahgiluyeh and Boyar Ahmad provinces are among the provinces with the lowest energy shares. The industrial province of Yazd, despite having being the fourth place in energy consumption in the industry sector (about 7 percent share) after West Azarbaijan Province, has the lowest average technical efficiency score. This shows that, in this province, planning is required for extensive changes in various sectors of industry in order to increase the efficiency in Energy consumption. The evaluation of the efficiency of the scale of the industries in the country's provinces shows that, in 2014 and the beginning of the law of targeting the subsidies, the industry sector of the provinces of Isfahan, Bushehr, Tehran, Sistan and Baluchistan, Fars, Kermanshah, Gilan, Markazi, Hormozgan worked on an optimal scale, but the other provinces had inefficient scales. Among the inefficient provinces, the intensity of scale inefficiency in Ilam Province was higher than that in the other provinces, which indicates that the size of its production organization is not optimal and it can move towards an efficient scale by changing the size. This is despite the fact that, after the year 2019, a relative improvement in the scale efficiency score occurred for most of the provinces. In the last year, active manufacturing industries in the provinces of Ardabil, Alborz, Bushehr, Tehran, Khuzestan, Sistan and Baluchistan, Kurdistan, Kermanshah, Markazi, Hormozgan and Yazdbenefited from the efficiency of the scale.

Conclusion and Policy Implications: 

In DEA models, for each inefficient unit, an efficient unit or a combination of two or more efficient units is introduced as a reference unit. In this regard, each inefficient unit should be compared with an efficient unit to reach the efficiency limit. Therefore, the reference unit should be similar in size and structure to the inefficient units that measure it. In this regard, the seven provinces of Ilam, Bushehr, Tehran, Khuzestan, Sistan and Baluchistan, Kohgiluyeh Boyer Ahmad and Hormozgan are considered as reference units for the other provinces of the same level in terms of the size and structure of the industry to improve efficiency. In terms of policy-making, it is suggested that the technical efficiency score of the provinces be supported by the government and its projects for the industry sector through the allocation of low-interest loans, industrial subsidies, tax exemptions, etc.

Monetary policy rules that are used to implement monetary policies by central banks are determined in a strategic framework in order to do trade-offs between goals such as inflation, unemployment and economic growth. Economic authorities use laws as a guide to implement their policies regarding the deviation of target variables from their desired goals or levels.The new Keynesian DSGE models in vogue in central banking have long ignored the insights of the economy information revolution to which Joseph Stiglitz made an important contribution. Furthermore, these models have not been successful in providing important research insights about alternative theories on model selection and the consequences of structural failures in the econometric literature, in which David Hendry plays a key role. By addressing the debates between the critics and advocates of New Keynesian DSGE models, Henry and Muelbauer show how evidence-based research can improve quantitative policy models and enable central banks to better understand financial stability and models.The fundamental difference between the neoclassical and Keynesian theories lies in the understanding of the labor market. In the neoclassical case, the nominal wage is understood as an adaptive variable. In the absence of labor market imperfections such as search and matching frictions or non-equilibrium wages due to the existence of asymmetric information, nominal wage adjustment settles the labor market for a given price level. In such a situation, Keynesian unemployment caused by the lack of aggregate demand cannot exist. The economy is supply-side determined because the factor of market settlement along with the aggregate production function requires a unique level of output and employment.Macroeconomic modeling has come under severe criticism since the Great Financial Crisis, when serious flaws in the methodology used to understand the economy as a whole became apparent. Criticisms have been directed toward the assumptions used in dominant models, especially in that economic factors are homogeneous and optimal and that the economy is in equilibrium. Some researchers seek to explore an interdisciplinary approach to macroeconomic modeling, with techniques drawn from other sciences (natural and social). In particular, they discuss agent-based modeling as an example of such a technique, which is used in a wide variety of disciplines. Agent-based models complement the existing approaches and are suitable for answering macroeconomic questions in which complexity, heterogeneity of economic agents and their expectations, networks, and discoveries play an important role. Based on the literature, this study uses a disequilibrium approach to investigate the effect of monetary policies on macroeconomic variables.

The purpose of this paper was to analyze the monetary policies under disequilibrium in Iran's economy. In order to analyze the results, the random dynamic disequilibrium method was used in the period of 1989-2022 based on the frequency of seasonal data. The approach used in this study is modeling in terms of the disequilibrium in economic markets and its spread to other markets as well as the reaction of macroeconomic variables to the shock. Disequilibrium in dynamic stochastic models occurs due to financial and real frictions in markets. The tools used in this study were the Hamilton-Jacobi-Belman method as well as Kolomogrof's forward-looking expectations in order to solve the model in disequilibrium conditions.

The results obtained from this study indicated that the currency deviation variable has increased in response to the monetary policy shock. Also, with the change in the same variable, this disequilibrium and deviation in the exchange rate has increased over time. It was observed that the shock of the monetary policy has led to the deviation in the exchange rate by creating disequilibrium in the prices. The response of consumer spending to monetary policy shocks has also been increasing over time. The results indicate that, with the introduction of the monetary policy shock, the situation and imbalance in the money and currency market has led to price pressure and an increase in household consumption expenditures, and this trend has been upward over time. The production deviation variable has also increased in response to the monetary policy shock.

Conclusion and Policy Implications:

 Guiding monetary policies and designing a structure that increases the credibility and acceptability of both applied policies and monetary policymakers, on the one hand, and the realization of the main priority of monetary policies, i.e. achieving a low and stable inflation rate and making it possible to maintain it, on the other hand, in recent years have been the focus of attention of many economists. The results indicate that, with the introduction of the monetary policy shock, the disequilibrium in the money and currency market has led to price pressure and an increase in household consumption expenditures. This trend has been upward over time. The production deviation variable has also increased in response to the monetary policy shock. According to the results obtained from this study, it is suggested that the instability and disequilibrium in Iran's economy are due to the exchange rate and balance of payments, and this imbalance is transferred to all markets through economic policies. This is the basis for the country's monetary authorities to implement their policies, especially in the field of foreign exchange, by setting a fluctuation range and anchoring the nominal exchange rate to changes in foreign exchange reserves as well as the inflation rate to prevent the spread of disequilibrium in the currency and money market as the real sector of the economy.

In recent research, the need for regulators and policymakers to evaluate the effects of government policies on markets can be felt according to the behavior of market participants and their deviation. Herding behavior is an important behavioral element and refers to a process in which market participants imitate one another's actions and adjust their financial decisions based on other people's actions. Based on the estimations of the herding model, investors put aside their opinions about the equilibrium point of the market, and the beta-herding of individuals leans towards the beta-herding of the market. According to this method, investors consider the general trend of market return and introduce the amount of cross-sectional dispersion as a herding pattern. In this article, the relationship between the monetary policies of the central bank and herding behavior in Tehran stock market is investigated for the first time. Central banks have serious motivations to pay attention to the possible herding behavior caused by their actions for two reasons. First, the herding behavior may neutralize the intended outcome of a monetary policy. Secondly, the monetary policy has the ability to eliminate price bubbles in the financial markets by itself. In this study, a wide range of data related to Iran's economy is experimentally examined by using the (TVP-FAVAR) model to see if the central bank's monetary policies have an effect on the beta behavior of investors. If so, is it possible to say in which years these effects were greater, which monetary policy tools were more effective, and how fast this policy impacted the beta-herding behavior?

In this research the herding behavior is measured based on the beta-herding behavior model of Huang and Salmon (2009) in which addresses the change of the cross-sectional level of systematic risks. In this model, the dynamic characteristics of herding behavior are referred to and the herding of investors are considered as a variable in time. Huang and Salmon argue that behavioral biases may affect investors' understanding of the asset price equilibrium; as a result, the estimated beta deviates from the traditional risk-return relationship that can serve as the beta deviation from beta equilibrium to measure the herding. Besides, the main channel of transmitting these effects is through expectations in that the central bank can have significant effects on the stock prices of this market by shaping the expectations of investors in the stock market. Therefore, first by calculating the beta-herding coefficient in Tehran Stock Exchange market and then by estimating the variable of beta-herding behavior, the (TVP-FAVAR) model (designed by Koop and Korobilis, 2013) was regressed by the MATLAB-207 software to investigate the hidden variable effects of monetary policies on the beta-herding behavior of investors in Tehran Stock Exchange market from the quarterly data of 30 main variables in the Iranian economy from Jan, 2019 to Jan. 2021.

In the calculations for the beta-herding behavior, the existence of this behavior has been confirmed in the whole period of 2009-2021. According to the results, the peak of this behavior occurred from 2020 to the end of 2021 and, at a lower level, from 2015 until the end of 2016. The output of the TVP-FAVAR model regression shows that the impulse response of the hidden variable of the expansionary monetary policies up to the first four seasons has a high impact on the beta-herding behavior. This means that the changes in the monetary policy can have important effects on the beta-herding behavior in initial seasons. According to it, the peak of these reactions happened in the years 2013-2019. The impulse response of the variable GDP growth rate had insignificant positive effects after three seasons, and the inflation rate variable after two seasons had no effect but became positive in the third and fourth seasons. After that, these effects became negative. Although the variable of the total return of the stock market had little effects, it continued for four seasons positively and suddenly turned negative in the fifth season. Finally, the liquidity of the stocks was of small effects but positive in the first two seasons. From the third season onwards, these effects became negative. One of the strong points of this research is extracting the probability of influence of each of the monetary policy instruments on the numerical value of the hidden variable of monetary policy, according to which the rate of change in the volume of money and visual deposits has the greatest influence, and the rate of change in the volume of pseudo money has the least influence on it. In addition, during 2013-2019, economic decision makers used most of the monetary policy tools to implement these policies.

Conclusion and Policy Implications:

 In summary, Iran's economy is a developing economy and has its own limitations, and the plans and actions of economic decision makers affect people's behavior in the capital market. The results of the research show that the government can make effective changes in the stock market with monetary policies and guide investors’ behavior. Therefore, the government and economic decision-makers can influence the behavior of investors at times when this market has a price bubble or the market goes out of its way. It is to be mentioned that the government should not lose its information credibility in this market, because behavioral discussions pay attention to the behavior of ordinary human rather than economic human. This can even get an opposite response from investors. From another point of view, it can be claimed that, if the government decides to exert less influence on this market, it can implement its monetary policies by diversifying monetary policy tools and make its effects on the stock market unpredictable. Otherwise, the alternative proposal for the implementation of policies will be monetary disciplines that can reduce these effects. Another suggestion of attraction for the future research to delineate the direction of government policies is the investigation of the influence of monetary policies on each of the industries or each corporation on the stock market.