نشریه پژوهش های برنامه و توسعه
سال چهارم شماره 3 (پیاپی 15، پاییز 1402)

The budget system in Iran has been one of the most controversial issues. The government budget is generally divided into two parts: revenues and expenditures, and its expenditures in the general government budget are divided into three parts: expenditure credits, acquisition of capital assets, and acquisition of financial assets. The two parts of expenditures and capital assets constitute more than 90% of the expenditures of the general government budget. The present study, using the model of estimating the fixed effects of the panel and using annual data (2008-2017), the impact of four items of expenditure credits and acquisition of capital assets (economic, welfare, education, and health) in different provinces on economic growth and provincial Gini coefficient is investigated. The most innovative feature of this study is the use of final budget expenditure data in the two sections of cost credits and acquisition of capital assets by province. The results show that the acquisition of capital assets, compared with expenditure credits, has a greater impact on economic growth. Welfare spending in the expenditure credit sector has helped to reduce the class gap, and also, contrary to the expectations of the JCPOA agreement, has not been able to improve the class gap in the country due to its lack of impact on employment.

Commodity smuggling is a complex phenomenon with multiple dimensions, which is related to the hidden and underground economy on the one hand, and to social order, cultures, and attitudes on the other hand. In the conditions of the spread of Covid-19 as a global crisis, the complexity of the situation of goods smuggling has increased. Getting out of the situation of smuggling as an economic disease and a critical situation that is considered as one of the country's development challenges, requires coordinated and integrated measures, and the approach of integrated marketing communications can be used to deal with such challenges. Therefore, planning a systematic way out of commodity smuggling with the integrated marketing communication management approach (case study: Covid-19  outbreak crisis) was proposed for the first time.The present exploratory research was presented through semi-structured interviews of 12 experts and using the database theory and the Delphi method, conceptual model and appropriate theory, extracting 18 categories and 82 sub-components, content validity (0.71), retest reliability (77%), and reliability two coders (65%) were evaluated favorably and practical suggestions were presented by documenting organizational knowledge.It seems that in the crisis of the Covid-19 outbreak, planning through the management of integrated marketing communications can be used to prevent and get out of the situation of smuggling of goods towards the health of the business environment and economic development.Therefore, planning a systematic way out of commodity smuggling with the integrated marketing communication management approach (case study: Corona outbreak crisis) was proposed for the first time.The present exploratory research was presented through semi-structured interviews of 12 experts and using the data base theory and the Delphi method, conceptual model and appropriate theory, while extracting 18 categories and 82 sub-components, content validity (0.71), retest reliability (77%) and reliability Two coders (65%) were evaluated favorably and practical suggestions were presented by documenting organizational knowledge.Among the categories, "supporting legal trade while modifying and completing the business model" and "supporting production while modifying and completing the production and employment model" had the highest frequency. It seems that in the crisis of corona outbreak, planning through the management of integrated marketing communications can be used to prevent and get out of the situation of smuggling of goods towards the health of the business environment and economic development.

Economic growth rate is one of the most important economic variables that are affected by various factors. According to empirical studies, many visible and invisible political, social, and economic factors have been effective on the growth rate in Iran; Factors that cannot all be included in an economic model. The conventional methods preclude us from commenting with certainty about the effectiveness of some of these factors on the growth rate. Based on this argument, in this research, the fuzzy approach has been used to investigate the effect of the economic sanctions imposed against Iran along with other variables affecting the economic growth rate in the period after the Islamic Revolution (1357-1400). The results show that severe economic sanctions with a high and strong fuzzy coefficient have had a significant negative effect on the growth rate in Iran. After severe sanctions, budget deficit, liquidity, exchange rate, and moderate sanctions have had the most negative effects on the economic growth rate in this period. The fuzzy coefficients obtained for the variables of oil revenues, labor force growth, physical capital, human capital, degree of openness of the economy, economic growth rate of the previous year, and net foreign direct investment in Iran, respectively, indicate the positive effect of these variables on the growth rate in this period of time. Also, the result of the re-estimation of the model, taking into account the first breaks of the variables of oil revenues and budget deficit in the economic growth rate, confirms the output of the first model. In this case, severe economic sanctions have had the most negative effect on Iran's economic growth rate.

Türkiye is one of the countries with a long history of development planning. The roots of development planning date back to industrial development programs in the 1930s. It started with the formulation of five-year development plans in the early 1960s and evolved through medium-term programs and strategic plans in the early 21st century. The main objective of this research is to study the evolution of the development planning system using a historical and documentary approach, and also to evaluate the governance of development planning with a systemic approach. With the systemic approach, we intend to describe the interactions and relationships of the components and elements of the planning system to achieve the objectives. The evaluation of the governance pattern of the planning system shows that the development planning system in Türkiye has been dynamic and has evolved over the past one hundred years through structural reforms. The national development planning system in this country is multi-level and includes five-year long-term development plans, three-year medium-term programs, three-year medium-term financial plans, one-year investment programs, presidential investment plans, and strategic plans of organizations, all of which are systematically interconnected.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the distribution of household income in Isfahan province by using the data of the household income and expenditure plan, for the period of 2011-2021 using parametric methods. For this purpose, different statistical distributions are fitted to the data, and distribution parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Then, the appropriate distribution is selected using distribution function graphs and Akaike's criterion (AIC). By comparing the graphs of distribution functions from 2011 to 2021 for the data, the results show that among all the distributions, the Dagum and Gamma distributions are more suitable than other distributions, including log-normal and exponential distributions. Also, the amount of AIC from 2011 to 2021 for the Dagum distribution takes the lowest values compared to other distributions, which also shows the superiority of the Dagum distribution over other distributions. Also, the investigation of the trend and comparison of Gini coefficients in non-parametric and parametric modes indicates that along with the decreasing trend of the Gini coefficient in Isfahan province during the period under review, the values of the Gini coefficient in the parametric method based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic are more reliable. Therefore, it is suggested that those responsible for producing the income inequality index change their calculation basis from the non-parametric method to the parametric method, considering the high accuracy of the parametric methods.

In order to adopt the appropriate fiscal policy, one should know the correct relationship between the revenues and expenses of the government. The main goal of this study is to offer appropriate policy recommendations to reduce the budget deficit and resolve the imbalance between the government's revenues and expenses. In this research, the dynamic relationship and mutual effects between government revenues and government expenditures have been tested using the vector error correction (VEC) model. The results confirm the Tax-and-Spend Hypothesis for Iran. The political consequence of this hypothesis for Iran is that higher tax revenues lead to higher expenditures, which can cause an increase in the inflation rate and financial illusion in addition to the government's failure to resolve the budget deficit. Therefore, the government's efforts should be accompanied by appropriate reforms in public spending to enable productive investments and, as a result, sustainable economic growth. With increasing economic growth in the long term, it will be possible to increase tax revenues in order to compensate for the budget deficit.