پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان
سال هجدهم شماره 40 (زمستان 1402)

The purpose of this study is to investigate the interaction of behavior between two important players in the economy, namely the government and the central bank, despite the uncertainty of the government in achieving a certain level of budget. The goal of the government is to achieve the highest growth of the economy with the help of budgetary tools, and the goal of the central bank is to stabilize prices using the policy tool of interest rates. The existence of independence between two authorities was analyzed in the framework of two non-cooperative games and the leader-follower game (Stackelberg) based on the existing parameters in Iran's economy. The results of this research show that both the government's response to the increase in the political interest rate and the central bank's response to the increase in the government's budget deficit are expansionary. On the other hand, in the Nash equilibrium, an increase in the uncertainty variable of the government causes an increase in the loss function of the government and the central bank. Moreover, the change in the weight attributed to inflation by the financial authority in the constraint function causes the government's policy instrument to decrease in the Nash equilibrium. Therefore, it is recommended for both policies to always give significant weight to the inflation rate in their loss function in presenting their policy package and try to present a game in the case of independence of two politicians, in which the government plays the role of the leader and the central bank should play the role of follower.

Considering the position of oil in the economy of countries with oil resources, oil price uncertainty is one of the important sources of risk and uncertainty that affects the investment decisions of companies. In addition, another important issue that should be considered in this regard is whether the companies' investment response to the positive and negative uncertainty is symmetric or asymmetric.  Considering that the chemical products industry has an important role in the economic development of the country and is also affected by the developments of other markets such as the oil market, in this study the asymmetric effects of Brent oil price uncertainty on the investment of chemical products group companies in the Tehran stock exchange has been investigated from 2010 to 2021. The research modeling is based on dynamic panel models and the calculation of oil price uncertainty has been done by the GARCH method. Relationships between variables have also been estimated using the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM). The results show that during the period under review, oil price uncertainty had a negative effect on corporate investment. On the other hand, the findings indicate that the positive and negative oil price uncertainty has an asymmetric effect on corporate investment.

In the present study, the effective factors on the index of economic resilience in the countries of the Middle East region during the period 2000-2020 were experimentally evaluated. Firstly, the economic resilience index was calculated based on several sub-indices, and then the effect of factors affecting this index was examined for the oil and non-oil countries of the Middle East. The factors affecting economic resilience included technological variables, oil production, economic openness, political globalization, cultural globalization, and government spending. A dynamic ordinary least squares cointegration approach was used to achieve the objectives of the study. The results of the cointegration analysis indicated the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables studied. Based on the results obtained, except for the variable of government expenditure, the other variables mentioned had a positive effect on the economic resilience of the Middle East oil countries in the long run. However, no significant effect was found between the variable of oil production and the economic resilience of oil countries. The variable coefficient of political globalization has the most positive effect on the economic resilience of oil countries. The variables of economic openness and cultural globalization are also in the next ranks in this respect. This is despite the fact that the cultural globalization variable has the most positive effect on the economic resilience of non-oil countries in the long run. Similarly, no significant effect was observed between the government expenditure variable and the resilience of non-oil countries. According to the results, it is expected that as a result of globalization and increasing political, commercial, and cultural communication, the flow of financial, economic, social, commercial, and technological information exchange between countries will be strengthened and economic resilience will be improved by increasing the number of countries with a high level of cultural globalization.

The ability to accurately measure inflation expectations is an integral part of the monetary policy of central banks in the world. In fact, according to the current monetary policy approach that is based on inflation targeting, central banks should be forward-looking and adjust their policies based on people's expectations of the future inflation rate. There are different methods to estimate inflation expectations, the most important of which is to measure inflation expectations by directly asking people about their expectations of prices. These proposed questions may be presented quantitatively or qualitatively. According to the quantitative or qualitative nature of survey questions, different methods are also used to calculate survey-based inflation expectations, which are generally divided into two categories: methods based on quantitative surveys and methods based on qualitative surveys. In this study, using the data obtained from the opinion survey of inflation expectations of the Islamic Council Research Center, which was conducted quarterly from the fall of 1400, the index of inflation expectations based on a qualitative survey in Iran from the fall of 1400 to the fall of 1402 has been calculated and analyzed. For this purpose, the methods of balanced statistics, probability method, and logistic function method were used. The results of comparing the inflation expectations calculated from the mentioned methods and the inflation rate realized in the next three months showed that the probability method with uniform distribution performed better in predicting the future inflation rate. Moreover, the analysis of the trend of the inflation expectations index in the last 9 seasons showed that the intensity of the increase in inflation expectations during the period of currency fluctuations was much higher than during the period when the preferred currency was removed. These results indicate that the central bank should prevent the occurrence of currency shocks and the significant increase in inflationary expectations as much as possible by properly managing the foreign exchange market, allowing the gradual increase of the exchange rate, and reducing its fluctuations around the equilibrium exchange rate.

According to economic views, money can have nominal and real effects on economic variables. Meanwhile, changes in the monetary base in the economy can be considered a function of the changes in the central bank's financial assets. Central banks in countries are responsible for issuing banknotes. This bank uses foreign exchange reserves, gold reserves, claims from the government and claims from banks as a basis for issuing banknotes. The debt of the central bank is also the bills and securities in the hands of the people, the legal, additional and precautionary reserves of commercial banks. The main purpose of this paper was to examine the relationship between monetary base components and production and inflation in Iran's economy. In this regard, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) in the time periods of 1989-2022, the relationship between the variables was estimated. The obtained results showed that the variable effect of commercial banks' debt to the central bank on production and inflation is 0.33 and 0.62, respectively, and the net effect of public sector debt to the central bank on production and inflation is 42, respectively. 0.0 and 0.57. Considering the results obtained and the importance of paying attention to the contribution of each component of the monetary base on inflation and production in the country, the central bank should pay more attention to changing the share of the components of the monetary base and be disciplined in the growth of the sectors that have a high contribution to the country's inflation.

Globalization is a phenomenon that has caused many changes in people's lives. There are different opinions regarding the effects of globalization on economic growth and development and the human development index. Some believe that globalization will cause global markets to develop, which will increase trade and investment exchanges between countries and improve the Human Development Index. In contrast, others argue that increased exchanges and competition between countries will only make companies want to maximize their profits and pay less attention to improving labor conditions, which can reduce health indicators and increase poverty. It should be noted that the economic globalization index was calculated using the shannon entropy method and simple additive weighting method. The results of the study show that the economic globalization index had an upward trend until 1390, fluctuated between 1390-1397 and started a downward trend from 1397 onwards. In this research, the effect of the economic globalization index on the human development index in Iran for the period 1375-1400 has been investigated. The estimation of the model has been done using the autoregressive distributed lag method (ARDL). Also, the results show that the economic globalization index had a positive and significant effect on the human development index. Other variables of the model i.e. gross domestic product, government expenditure, ratio of urban population to total population and export of goods, services have a positive and significant effect, and inflation has a negative effect on the human development index.