نشریه جغرافیا و مطالعات محیطی
پیاپی 48 (زمستان 1402)

Land use change has acted as a pivotal factor in environmental change and has become a global threat. Reviewing these changes through satellite imagery and predicting and evaluating their potential through modeling can help environmental planners and natural resource managers to make informed decisions. The purpose of this study was to review, model, and predict land use changes in the 30-year period of 1993-2013 by the Markow-LCM chain model in Kangan and Assaluyeh. For this purpose, land use maps were prepared using ETM +, TM and OLI satellite imagery in three periods of 1993, 2003, and 2013. Then verifying the maps and detecting the changes. Using the classification of the neural network and applying the Land Change Modeler (LCM Markov model) and the Land Use Change Modeling Approach have been implemented. The results of detection of changes in the first period with a kappa coefficient of 97% and the second period of 1993-2003 with a kappa coefficient of 94% indicate that the largest changes in the area in the water area and the largest decrease in the area in the vegetation area occurred. In order to calibrate the Markov chain model, the 2013 map was predicted and the error mapping matrix of the 2013 map reference model and mapping utilization yielded a copper coefficient of 93%. The results of modeling the transfer force using the artificial neural network in most of the sub-models The high accuracy was 60-93%.

Considering the flood events, especially for the settlements around the rivers, the lack of correct information about the consecutive changes of the river bed and its movement in the coming years is one of the important scientific issues of watershed management, therefore, due to insufficient information about the behavior of the rivers, the settlements along the rivers in the coastal areas are constantly damaged. The scope of this research is from the border of Konik Kohestan to Jalga. The purpose of this research is to predict the changes in river morphology (channel width and measurement of Pichanroudi and river curvature coefficient) in the coastal areas of the north of the country through the integrated methods of remote sensing with the model of Markov automatic weighing cells. Sefidroud, as the largest and most important river on the southern shores of the Caspian Sea, plays an important role in the life, activities and human capital of the region. The morphological factors of the river and its surroundings and the prediction of future conditions can be effective and necessary in the planning and preparation of coastal plains. In this research, the Landsat 5, 7 and 8 satellite images of 2002, 1987 and 2018, along with the data of changes in the level of the Caspian Sea and Sefidroud Dubai, field surveys and Envi 5.3, ArcGIS 10.4.1 and Idrisi TerrSet software as The research tool was used. First, the probability values of land use conversion in 2018 were obtained based on the integrated model of the Markov chain and automatic cells. The results showed that the integrated model has high precision and accuracy to predict the future pattern. Then, according to the accuracy and accuracy of the model output, the prediction map of land use and river morphology for 2030 was prepared. By fitting the two maps of 2018 and the forecast of 2030, possible changes in the river environment were obtained and analyzed in four areas. Finally, using the data of changes in the level of the Caspian Sea and the annual discharge of the Sefidroud River, the trend of changes and prediction of the model was investigated. The most likely changes are due to man-made facilities. Erosion processes, change of Pichanroodi and flooding in the distance from Sangar Dam to Luman village as lateral displacement of the channel and intensification of Pichanroodi, Kisem village and the city of Astana Ashrafieh and Azadsara to Lichah as flooding of human facilities and in the area of Kiashahr, Bojag wetland and delta Sefidroud is changing the position of the estuary and moving to the west of the river channel, according to the results of the survey of the cross section of the river channel in the three periods of 1987, 2002 and 2018, there has been a decrease in the width of the channel.

The temperature of the land surface is one of the most key parameters that can provide valuable information about the physical characteristics of the earth's surface and the surrounding air. This research was conducted with the aim of investigating and evaluating the land surface temperature and analyzing it in relation to land use by the separate window algorithm in Parsabad city with two Landsat 5 and 8 satellite images for August 24, 1990 and 2020. The results showed that in the years 1990 and 2020, generally the western and northwestern parts of the city have forest covers and relatively dense vegetation, while the southwestern parts are generally mountainous and barren. The vegetation index of 1990 and 2020 in the eastern parts of the studied area has an NDVI index higher than 0.3, which indicates medium to high density vegetation. The maximum vegetation index in the range reached 0.55 in August, which is generally related to garden and agricultural lands or dense forest areas in the north and northeast of the range. On the other hand, large parts of Parsabad city, especially in the south and southwest of this city, lack vegetation and are considered barren lands. Also, the results of the land surface temperature evaluation showed that the retrieved spatial average temperature of the earth surface on August 24, 1990, which was obtained at 11:30 local time using the separate window algorithm, was 31.8 degrees Celsius in Parsabad city. While this temperature on this day and at this time in 2020 was equal to 33 degrees Celsius.

Achieving development goals is impossible without paying attention to the role of women, and rural women play a key role as one of the main actors in achieving the Millennium Development Goals.The present study was conducted with the aim of analyzing the factors preventing and promoting the development of rural women's participation in Sardaba district. The current research is practical in terms of its purpose, and the method used in it is a combined method with a sequential exploratory approach that uses both qualitative and quantitative approaches. In the first phase, using the qualitative method of qualitative content analysis, the data collected through the review of available sources and interviews, key concepts were extracted from the text of notes and interviews, and during open coding, 18 inhibiting factors and 17 promoting factors were divided into three groups. The main economic, socio-cultural and political factors were identified. Then in the quantitative phase, using the survey method; The extracted indicators were ranked and analyzed. The necessary technique to obtain the required data is library and field (questionnaire). The statistical population of the present study is the population of women in 11 villages of Sardaba village in the central part of Ardabil city with a population of 3179. To determine the sample size, Cochran's formula was used, and according to this formula, the statistical sample number was 345. Structural equation method and Lisrel software were used to analyze the data. The ranking based on the standardized factor load showed that socio-cultural factor with an effect factor of 0.95, political factor with an effect factor of 0.92, and economic factor with an effect factor of 0.89 are the most important factors hindering the development of rural women's participation. In terms of promoting factors, the political factor with an effect factor of 0.94 is the most important promoting factor in the development of rural women's participation. The socio-cultural factor with an effect factor of 0.90 is the second group, followed by the economic factors with an effect factor of 0.86 as factors that promote the development of rural women's participation.

One of the challenges that the governments are facing is separatism within the territories; Such challenges have always existed throughout history with the formation of governments. The geometric shape and territorial size of countries is one of the factors that influence the formation of autonomy and separatist tensions. In this article, the main goal is to investigate the role of the geometric shape of the land and the size of the countries in creating separatist challenges. To answer this question, the descriptive-analytical method has been used using library resources and internet sites. The results of the findings of the article show that the territorial geometry and size of countries do not play a big role in separatism. According to the examination of multiple samples from countries with different geometric shapes such as Indonesia (fragmented), Spain (compact), Belgium (compact), China (compact and fragmented) and ... It can be seen that what is the main factor in separatism is the way of ruling in the land by the ruling governments that do not pay attention to the ethnic-cultural demands and fair distribution of resources and facilities among all the people living in the land. If this lack of attention is combined with a large territory, governments will face more and more serious challenges.

The city of Ahvaz, as the seventh metropolis of Iran, is known as one of the important cities of Iran with its centrality of industries, political centrality, border and security position, ethnic and social cultural diversity, but attention to the issue of passive urban defense has been neglected in it. has been Sports complexes are also among the important uses during crises and damage in cities. The purpose of this research is to locate sports complexes with passive defense approach using geographic information system in Ahvaz city. Therefore, paying attention to the role of sports uses in creating mobility and reducing the psychological pressures of urbanization, a suitable framework should be provided in order to choose suitable sports places and distribute them in the whole city with the aim of reducing damages during a crisis.Therefore, paying attention to the role of sports uses in creating mobility and reducing the psychological pressures of urbanization, a suitable framework should be provided in order to choose suitable sports places and distribute them in the whole city with the aim of reducing damages during a crisis. Therefore, from the point of view of passive urban defense, the need to pay attention to the proper distribution and placement of vital uses, including sports complexes, is inevitable for the city of Ahvaz. In this research, it has been tried to determine appropriate criteria based on the available sources in order to identify and determine the optimal location of sports complexes based on the passive defense approach. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology. In order to achieve the goals of the research, it has been done by using spatial data and performing relevant analyzes in the geographic information system and multi-criteria decision-making model SAW. In the next step, the indicators were weighted using the AHP-FUZZY questionnaire. Thus, the statistical population of this research is the experts of the urban area of Ahvaz city and the sample size is 30 experts through theoretical saturation. The results of the research showed that 0.60% of the city area is completely unsuitable, 3.74% is unsuitable, 21.44% is average, 46.92% is suitable and 27.30% is completely unsuitable. The final results of the research showed that the central and northern parts of Ahvaz city are suitable areas for locating sports complexes and these parts can be used to build sports complexes.

Precipitation is one of the most important climatic elements, and its importance increases especially when heavy rains occur. Investigating rainfall or heavy rainfall in a region requires analysis of synoptic patterns. This research was conducted with the aim of investigating the heavy rains in the catchment area of Zayandeh Rood Dam. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data of Kohrang, Fereydon Shahr, Shahrekord, Daran, Pol Zaman Khan, Farrokh Shahr, Chadegan and Saman stations during the statistical period of 1958-2019 were used. After examining the data, two rainfall events on 7/1/2004 and 12/3/2005, which were heavy rains (rainfall above 20 mm) in the study area, were selected and their co-occurrence patterns were analyzed. The data related to geopotential height of three levels of 500, 700 and 850 hectopascals was obtained from the NOAA site and its maps were drawn in Arc Gis software. The obtained results showed that heavy rains occur in the studied basin when cold air in higher latitudes moves to lower latitudes and obtains the necessary moisture over the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. When the trough axis is located in the eastern Mediterranean and there is a lot of humidity, it causes heavy rains in the studied area. In general, it can be stated that the heaviest rains in the studied area occur in March and the Mediterranean and Sudanese systems cause heavy rains in this area.

Earth's climate has always been changing throughout history, but with the beginning of the industrial revolution, the human role in climate change has increased. This is mainly due to the increase in the consumption of fossil fuels, urbanization, deforestation, desertification, etc., climate changes in human societies can lead to the migration of millions of people, the consequences of climate change The distribution of human population is not clear and unpredictable. The reflection of the displacement of the population appears in the cities and causes the formation of immigrant settlements in the peri-urban areas of big cities. The main goal of this research was to investigate the effects of climate change on the instability of Zahedan city. To achieve this goal, the average maximum and minimum data of temperature and relative humidity elements and total precipitation on a monthly scale related to Zahedan synoptic station in the 30-year statistical period from 1990 to 2020 were used. In this research, the non-parametric method of SENS test was used to evaluate the trend and spi was used for the standard precipitation index; Finally, 100 samples were used to test the questionnaire data. The results in the trend section showed that in the minimum, the most changes were related to the months of April, May, September, and October, and the maximum temperature changes occurred in the months of April, August, and October. In relative humidity, the biggest changes were in the form of a decrease in relative humidity in the month of November. The drought process based on the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) started in 1997, in fact, from 1998 to 2020, except for 2015, when the situation was relatively wet, Zahedan experienced drought in the rest of the years. The city had excellent and suitable conditions during the review period of 1991 and 1995 only. The results of the research based on the data of the questionnaire about neighborhood sustainability show that the highest average value is 2.3 related to the environmental dimension and the lowest average value is 2.5 related to the physical dimension. The overall neighborhood stability average is 2.8. This figure shows the weak stability (instability) of the researched neighborhoods, it can be said that the stability of the neighborhoods in the studied neighborhoods is not in a good condition and the citizens are dissatisfied in this regard.