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نامه انجمن جمعیت شناسی ایران - پیاپی 36 (پاییز و زمستان 1402)

نشریه نامه انجمن جمعیت شناسی ایران
پیاپی 36 (پاییز و زمستان 1402)

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1402/12/26
  • تعداد عناوین: 13
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  • محمد میرزایی* صفحات 5-7
  • مرجان رشوند سرخکوله*، فاطمه وجدانی، مهسا لاریجانی صفحات 9-50

    نهاد ازدواج در چند دهه اخیر شاهد تغییرات مهمی بوده است. شیوه همسرگزینی و انتخاب همسر نیز از این تغییر و تحولات بی نصیب نمانده است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی عوامل موثر بر نحوه انتخاب همسر در میان دختران دانشجوی دانشگاه تهران انجام شده است. داده های مطالعه حاصل پیمایشی است که با استفاده از پرسشنامه محقق ساخته جمع آوری شده است. جامعه آماری، شامل دانشجویان دختر دانشکده های مختلف دانشگاه تهران، در سه مقطع کارشناسی، کارشناسی ارشد و دکتری است. حجم نمونه با استفاده از فرمول کوکران 400 نفر برآورد گردید. شیوه نمونه گیری طبقه ای نسبی و تصادفی ساده بوده است. یافته های مطالعه نشان داد با افزایش سن، تحصیلات، تمایل به دوستی دختر و پسر، تمایل به برابری جنسیتی و میزان استفاده از شبکه های اجتماعی، خودانتخابی دختران دانشجو در انتخاب همسر افزایش می یابد. این در حالی است که با افزایش نحوه تعامل دختران دانشجو با خانواده، خودانتخابی آنان در انتخاب همسر کاهش می یابد. هم چنین، دو متغیر تمایل به دوستی دختر و پسر و میزان استفاده از شبکه های اجتماعی به ترتیب قوی ترین پیش بینی کننده های نحوه انتخاب همسر دختران دانشجو هستند. متغیرهای نحوه تعامل با خانواده، تمایل به برابری جنسیتی، تحصیلات و سن به ترتیب در مراتب بعدی اهمیت قرار دارند.

    کلیدواژگان: نحوه انتخاب همسر، دختران دانشجو، تمایل به دوستی دختر و پسر، شبکه های اجتماعی، نحوه تعامل با خانواده، تمایل به برابری جنسیتی، دانشگاه تهران
  • احمد کلاته ساداتی*، سارا صادقیه، فاطمه جعفری نعیمی، زهرا صادقیان مقدم صفحات 51-91

    تغییرات اجتماعی در خانواده ایرانی، به برساخت های اجتماعی متفاوت و از جمله طولانی شدن دوره تجرد دختران انجامیده است. تجربه ی تجرد در نسل ها و سنین مختلف متفاوت است. با توجه به افزایش دختران مجرد در جامعه، هدف تحقیق حاضر، کشف و واکاوی تجرد در میان دختران بالای 35 سال در شهر یزد می باشد. تحقیق حاضر، مطالعه ای کیفی است که در سال 1402 انجام شد. مشارکت کنندگان در تحقیق شامل 15 دختر مجرد بالای 35 سال در شهر یزد  بوده اند که به صورت هدفمند انتخاب شدند. داده ها به روش تحلیل مضمونی واکاوی و نقشه مضمونی آن ارائه گردید. یافته ها نشان داد که بیشتر مشارکت کنندگان شرایط فعلی خود را غیررضایت بخش می دانند و با نوعی سخت زیستی تجرد مواجه اند. ته نشست های فرهنگی و اجتماعی نسبت به دختران مجرد از یک سو و محدودیت های فردی مشارکت کنندگان از سوی دیگر، رفاه ذهنی، روانی و اجتماعی آن ها را تحت تاثیر قرار داده است. مضامین برساخت شده تحقیق عبارتند از: پذیرش اجتماعی تجرد، ابرشکاف های هنجاری، تبعیض و فشار، ایده آل گرایی و زیست نامتعین. مضمون هسته، زنانگی بازمانده است که به معنای یک امر بالقوه اما ناکام است. تحقیق حاضر ابعاد فردی و اجتماعی تجرد دختران دهه شصت و قبل از آن را در بستر مذکور واکاوی نموده است.

    کلیدواژگان: دختران، تجرد، زنانگی بازمانده، زیست نامتعین، ایده آل گرایی
  • فاطمه ترابی، کاظم سراونی* صفحات 93-138

    رابطه بین مسکن و باروری در ادبیات جهانی مستند شده و مالکیت یا نوع تصدی مسکن به عنوان یکی از اصلی ترین سازوکارهای تاثیرگذار در این زمینه معرفی شده است. خلا پژوهشی موجود در مطالعات داخلی نویسندگان را بر آن داشت تا با استفاده از اطلاعات پیمایش ملی ازدواج در سال 97-1396 و با روش آماری تحلیل پیشینه واقعه، به بررسی نحوه اثرگذاری مالکیت مسکن بر زمان مناسب تولد اولین فرزند پس از ازدواج (گذار به والدینی) بپردازند. یافته ها نشان داد زوجین ساکن در ملک پدری نسبت به زوجین صاحب خانه یا مستاجر، تمایل به فرزندآوری سریع تری دارند. علاوه براین، یافته دیگر مطالعه، مبنی بر تمایل به فرزندآوری زودهنگام تر در میان افرادی که خانواده پدری آنها درآمد بالاتری دارند، بر اهمیت نقش خانواده پدری از طریق تامین مسکن و یا حمایت های مالی دیگر بر نگرش های مربوط به فرزندآوری در بستر ایران تاکید می کند. یافته ها همچنین حاکی از وجود رابطه مثبت بین تحصیلات و زمان مطلوب گذار به والدینی است که می توان آن را نشانه ای از معکوس شدن جهت رابطه تثبیت شده بین تحصیلات و فرزندآوری در ایران در نظر گرفت. مطالعات آینده می تواند با بررسی عوامل موثر بر این پدیده به تبیین آن کمک کند.

    کلیدواژگان: مالکیت مسکن، باروری، گذار به والدینی، انتقال بین نسلی ثروت، تحلیل پیشینه واقعه، ایران
  • الهام غفاری*، منصوره زارعان، شهره روشنی صفحات 139-181

    ناباروری با علت مردانه، یکی از دلایل اقدام به پذیرش فرزندخوانده در خانواده های ایرانی است؛ لیکن اغلب مطالعات حوزه ناباروری و فرزندخواندگی بر زنان متمرکز بوده و فارغ از دلایل، زمینه ها و آثار آن، فرزندخواندگی را هم چون ناباروری، امری بیشتر «زنانه شده» می دانند. پژوهش حاضر با رویکرد پدیدارشناسی توصیفی به مطالعه تجربه زیسته 10 مرد نابارور اقدام کننده به فرزندخواندگی در مشهد می پردازد که به شیوه نمونه گیری هدفمند از بین اعضای گروه تلگرامی «هم مسیرها» انتخاب شدند. داده های حاصل از مصاحبه عمیق نیمه ساختاریافته با این مردان، که در بازه زمانی بهمن 1401 تا اردیبهشت 1402 انجام گرفت، با روش کلایزی تحلیل شد. سه مقوله به دست آمده عبارتند از: 1) «بار بی فرزندی» شامل رنج ناباروری، رنجیدگی از مواجهه با دیگران مهم، آشیانه خالی و درمان نافرجام، 2) «گذار دشوار» شامل چالش های معطوف به خود، چالش های معطوف به اقدام، چالش های معطوف به دیگران و چالش های مربوط به فرزندخوانده و 3) «پدرانگی بدون بدن» شامل دغدغه های بی پایان، هویت یابی پدرانه، شوق فرزندداری و پدرانگی مدرن. همچنین یافته ها نشان داد این مردان، در پی فشار و استیگمای بی فرزندی برای کسب هویت و تجربه پدرانگی و پاسخ به نیاز همسران شان به مادرانگی، اقدام به پذیرش فرزندخوانده نموده و علی رغم دغدغه های موجود از انتخاب خویش رضایت داشته و آن را مثبت ارزیابی می کنند.

    کلیدواژگان: ناباروری، بی فرزندی، فرزندخواندگی، استیگما، پدرانگی
  • مسعود الماسی*، مریم اصلانی صفحات 183-217

    این پژوهش با هدف بررسی تمایل به ازدواج مجدد در بین سالمندان بیوه شهرستان فریدونشهر و عوامل مرتبط با آن انجام شده است. روش پژوهش، پیمایشی از نوع تحلیلی- مقطعی است. جامعه آماری کلیه سالمندان بیوه شهرستان فریدون شهر به تعداد 1254 نفر و حجم نمونه با کمک جدول مورگان، 264 نفر برآورد شده است. برای گردآوری داده های پژوهش از پرسشنامه محقق ساخته با استفاده از روش نمونه گیری سهمیه ای، و جهت تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از نرم افزار Spss نسخه 26 استفاده شد. ارزیابی فرضیه ها حاکی از آن است که بین متغیرهای مشکلات روحی، مشکلات جنسی، تعلق خاطر به فرزندان، حمایت شبکه ای و بازدارنده های هنجاری با متغیر وابسته همبستگی معنی دار است. متغیرهای مشکلات ظاهری و مشکلات جسمی در بین کل نمونه با متغیر وابسته همبستگی معنی دار داشتند که این نتیجه، با تفکیک جنسی حاصل نشد. همچنین تمایل به ازدواج مجدد بر حسب متغیرهای شغل و سطح سواد پاسخگویان متفاوت بوده است. نتایج تحلیل رگرسیونی نشان می دهد متغیرهای مشکلات ظاهری، روحی، جنسی، حمایت شبکه ای و بازدارنده های هنجاری بیش از 55 درصد از تغییرات متغیر وابسته را تبیین نموده اند که بر این اساس مدل پژوهش حاضر از قدرت تبیین و پیش بینی خوبی برخوردار است. در مجموع می توان نتیجه گرفت که تمایل به ازدواج مجدد در بین مردان سالمند شهرستان فریدون شهر بیشتر از زنان بوده و موضوع ازدواج مجدد سالمندان می بایست به عنوان اولویت نهادها و سازمان های مسئول قرار گیرد.

    کلیدواژگان: تمایل، ازدواج مجدد، سالمندان، بیوه، شهرستان فریدونشهر
  • ایلناز امیری، علی یار احمدی*، اصغر میرفردی صفحات 219-264

    این مطالعه به واکاوی معنایی زمینه های ازدواج زنان ایرانی با اتباع افغانستانی می پردازد. ایران در چند دهه گذشته به یکی از مقصدهای اصلی مهاجران افغانستانی تبدیل شده است؛ این امر به دلیل وجود مرز گسترده بین دو کشور و همچنین آشفتگی سیاسی، جنگ های متعدد، شرایط اقتصادی وحشتناک، ترس از جان، و سایر عوامل اقتصادی و سیاسی است. رویکرد پژوهش، کیفی و روش آن داده بنیاد است. مشارکت کنندگان در پژوهش، زنان ایرانی دارای همسر افغانستانی بودند که با روش نمونه گیری هدفمند انتخاب و داده ها با انجام مصاحبه نیمه ساختاریافته گردآوری شد. تعداد مشارکت کننده با معیار اشباع نظری، 12 نفر بود. داده ها با بهره گیری از کدگذاری سه مرحله ای (باز، محوری و گزینشی) استخراج و تحلیل شدند. در فرایند کدگذاری و تحلیل داده ها، تعداد 106 مفهوم، 35 مقوله فرعی، 10 مقوله اصلی و یک مقوله هسته استخراج شد. مقوله های اصلی پژوهش در قالب شرایط علی («رویه پدرسالارانه و ازدواج اجباری»، «سماجت و پافشاری اتباع بیگانه»)، شرایط زمینه ای («مصائب خانه پدری»، «نبود و کمبود آگاهی»، «فقر و احساس محرومیت» و «تقدیرگرایی»)، و شرایط مداخله گر («ادراک واکنش های متنوع»، «موانع اداری و حقوقی»، «نبود آینده نگری» و «بی پشتوانگی و ناپایداری شغلی و اقتصادی اتباع بیگانه») دسته بندی شدند. مقوله هسته نیز به «گزینش و زندگی ناخواسته» اشاره دارد. نتیجه این که، ازدواج و زندگی زنان ایرانی با اتباع افغانستانی، گونه ای از چالش در پیوند با موقعیت زنان و خانواده های آن ها در جامعه است که راهی ناخواسته را فراروی آن ها قرار می دهد.

    کلیدواژگان: زنان ایرانی، مردان افغانستانی، شرایط ازدواج، درک معنایی، مهاجرت
  • رضا نوبخت*، ولی الله رستمعلی زاده صفحات 265-304

    هدف مطالعه حاضر سنجش تمایل مهاجرتی نسل جوان (15-29 ساله) و بررسی نقش عوامل ساختاری و زمینه ای در شکل گیری خواست مهاجرتی آنان است. روش تحقیق مطالعه، پیمایش با استفاده از تکنیک پرسشنامه ساخت یافته است. جامعه آماری مطالعه 20656 نفر از جوانان 29-15 ساله شهر بوشهر و حجم نمونه شامل 378 نفر است. یافته های مطالعه بیانگر این است که تمایل مهاجرتی مردان، افراد متاهل، افرادی که در خانواده های پرجمعیت حضور دارند و همچنین اشخاصی که درآمد بالاتری دارند در مقایسه با دیگر افراد بالاتر است. براساس نتایج تحلیل رگرسیونی، متغیر های ساختاری و متغیر های زمینه ای 66 درصد از خواست مهاجرتی نسل جوان را تبیین می کنند. با توجه به مدل نظری تمایل/توانایی کارلینگ و مدل نهایی رگرسیون، متغیر های محیطی (نابرابری، امید به آینده) و مجرد بودن به عنوان یک متغیر زمینه ای و سطح خرد بالاترین اثرگذاری را در تبیین تمایل به مهاجرت نسل جوان دارند و در مجموع نابرابری مهم ترین تبیین کننده است. به طورکلی متغیر های ساختاری و محیطی نقشی تعیین کننده در شکل گیری تمایل به مهاجرت در نسل جوان داشته است.

    کلیدواژگان: تمایل به مهاجرت بین المللی، نسل جوان، تعیین کننده های ساختاری- زمینه ای، مدل نظری تمایل، توانایی
  • علی شریفی، محمد تقی عباسی شوازی*، حلیمه عنایت، سراج الدین محمودیانی صفحات 305-357

    این پژوهش به مطالعه ی درهم تنیدگی های ساخت اجتماعی جنسیت در مهاجرت های مستقل بین المللی زنان ایرانی، براساس پارادایم تفسیری و روش شناسی کیفی پرداخته است. روش مورد استفاده نظریه ی زمینه ای و جامعه ی مورد مطالعه زنان مهاجر مستقل ایرانی ساکن در کشورهای توسعه یافته ی غربی بوده است. ابزار جمع آوری داده ها مصاحبه ی عمیق و نمونه گیری با روش گلوله برفی و به صورت نظری و هدفمند بوده که بعد از 15 مصاحبه اشباع نظری حاصل شده است. مطابق با تحلیل ها و یافته های پژوهش، مقوله ی هسته «زن بودگی و انسداد» احصا شده و شرایط سبب ساز حاکم بر آن «مردسالاری، زن و احساس ناامنی، محدودیت های جنسیت بنیان، کلیشه های جنسیتی و طرد اجتماعی زنان» بوده اند. نتایج حاکی است که در بستر برهم کنش های زمینه ی اجتماعی و عوامل مداخله گر، تقابل عاملیت زنانه با ساختارهای مردانه در ایران، راهبرد این دسته از زنان را مهاجرت به فراسوی مرزها رقم زده است؛ محیطی که به زعم زنان مهاجر مستقل، گشایش انسدادهای مترتب بر زنانگی و خودشکوفائی خویش را در آن جستجو می کرده اند. یافته های پژوهش حاکی از آن است که فرایند مهاجرت زنان درهم تنیده با جنسیت به عنوان سازه ای اجتماعی فرهنگی است.

    کلیدواژگان: زنان، جنسیت، پدرسالاری، انسداد، مهاجرت بین المللی
  • لیدا کلهری ندرآبادی*، پریا ترابی کهلان، محمد شیری صفحات 359-404

    مهاجرت معکوس به عنوان پدیده ای جمعیتی، متاثر از عوامل گوناگونی است. از این رو، نحوه ی مدیریت و تدوین سیاست های حمایتی و تشویقی دولت و ایجاد بستری مناسب برای مهاجرت معکوس می تواند یکی از مهم ترین راهکارها برای مواجهه با این موضوع چالش برانگیز باشد. در این پژوهش، روند مهاجرت شهر به روستا و شناسایی علت های آن با استفاده از داده های طرح آمارگیری نیروی کار طی سال های 1396-1400 ارزیابی می شود. یافته ها نشان دادند که مهاجرت های شهر به روستا و علت های آن به شدت از ویژگی ها و مشخصه های اجتماعی-اقتصادی افراد مهاجر تاثیرپذیر است، لذا توجه به اقشار مختلف جامعه و بررسی مستمر مهاجرت های شهر به روستا براساس شاخص های توسعه ی پایدار در روستاهای کشور امری ضروری است. تحلیل توصیفی و برازش مدل رگرسیون لوجستیک در طول دوره ی پنج ساله نیز نشان داد که سن، جنس، وضع فعالیت و سطح تحصیلات با مهاجرت شهر به روستا ارتباط دارند.

    کلیدواژگان: مهاجرت معکوس، مهاجرت شهر به روستا، آمارگیری نیروی کار، ویژگی های اجتماعی-اقتصادی، رگرسیون لوجستیک
  • محمد ساسانی پور* صفحات 405-443

    در نیم قرن اخیر، امید زندگی در بدو تولد در منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا (منا) و از جمله ایران افزایش چشمگیری یافته است. بااین حال تفاوت های مهمی در این شاخص در کشورهای این منطقه وجود دارد. این مطالعه در تلاش است تا تفاوت امید زندگی در بدو تولد ایران با کشورهای منطقه منا را با تمرکز بر اهمیت نسبی سهم هر کدام از گروه های سنی- جنسی و علل مرگ روشن نماید. مطالعه حاضر، پژوهشی کمی است که با استفاده از تحلیل ثانویه داده های موجود انجام گرفته است. در این تحقیق، اطلاعات مرگ برای ایران و همچنین کشورهای منا بر حسب تمامی علل مرگ و نیز مرگ ومیر به تفکیک سن و جنس از برآوردهای مطالعه جهانی بار بیماری ها سال 2019 گرفته شده است. سپس، با کاربرد تکنیک جدول عمر، امید زندگی دو جنس در بدو تولد برای ایران و کشورهای منا  محاسبه شده و در ادامه، با استفاده از روش تجزیه، سهم گروه های سنی و علل مرگ در تفاوت امید زندگی ایران و منا شناسائی گردیده است. نتایج نشان داد که امید زندگی برای مردان ایرانی 4/3 و برای زنان 5/3 سال بالاتر از رقم متناظر برای کشورهای منطقه منا بود. همه گروه های سنی مردان و زنان (به جز گروه سنی 19-15 سال، 24-20 سال و 29-25 سال در مردان)، مشارکت مثبتی در بالاتر بودن شاخص امید زندگی ایرانیان داشته اند. برپایه نتایج، تفاوت های مشاهده شده در مرگ ومیرهای اطفال زیر یک سال  و همچنین بیماری های قلبی و عروقی بیشترین سهم را به ترتیب از نظر اهمیت نسبی گروه های سنی و اهمیت علل اصلی مرگ در تبیین  فزونی امید زندگی ایران در مقایسه با کشورهای منا داشته اند. از بین علل مرگ، تنها حوادث ترافیکی است که تاثیر منفی بر امید زندگی مردان در کشور (با سهم 05/0-) ایجاد نموده است.. به طورکلی، یافته های این تحقیق بیانگر این است که ایران در مقایسه با کشورهای منطقه منا از نظر تکوین مراحل گذار اپیدمیولوژیک پیشرو بوده است. بنابراین، به نظر می رسد که از این پس، ارتقاء بیشتر شاخص امید زندگی در کشور عمدتا منوط به کنترل مرگ ومیرهای غیرواگیر و در سنین سالمندی است علاوه بر آن، کاهش میزان مرگ ومیر جوانان  در اثر حوادث ترافیکی در ایران باید در برنامه ریزی های سیاستی مدنظر قرار گیرد.

    کلیدواژگان: امید زندگی در بدو تولد، خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا، ایران، علل مرگ، سن، جنس
  • الهام نوبهار*، ملیحه حدادمقدم صفحات 445-479

    توزیع اندازه شهرها در یک نظام شهری بیانگر چگونگی و کیفیت سیستم شهری از لحاظ توزیع جمعیتی شهرهاست و روند تحول توزیع را در طول زمان نشان می دهد. هدف اصلی مطالعه حاضر بررسی توزیع اندازه شهرها در سیستم شهری ایران طی سال های 1395-1335 است. در این راستا دو قاعده مهم در ادبیات توزیع اندازه شهرها -قانون زیپف و قانون گیبرات- مورد آزمون قرار گرفته است. بررسی ها در دو بخش شهرهای بزرگ و کل شهرهای موجود در سیستم شهری ایران صورت گرفته است. نتایج حاکی از آن است که در کل سیستم شهری ایران، قاعده زیپف تایید نمی گردد. همچنین قدرمطلق ضریب رابطه رتبه اندازه (ضریب زیپف) در تمامی سال ها کوچکتر از یک بوده و دارای روند نزولی است که بیانگر نابرابرتر شدن توزیع اندازه شهرها در طول زمان است. نتایج آزمون قاعده گیبرات نیز نشان می دهد که از سال 1335 تا 1365 قاعده گیبرات در سیستم شهری ایران برقرار است. اما از سال 1365 به بعد این قاعده برقرار نبوده که نشان دهنده واگرایی روند رشد شهری در سیستم شهری ایران است. همچنین مطابق نتایج، با در نظر گرفتن شهرهای بزرگ، رشد شهری ایران در تمامی سال ها از قانون گیبرات تبعیت می کند و اندازه شهرها دارای توزیع زیپف با ضریب یک است.

    کلیدواژگان: اندازه شهر، قانون زیپف، قانون گیبرات، نابرابری شهری، ایران
  • حجت الله رحیمی* صفحات 481-514

    براساس تفسیر مکتب جامعه شناسی شهری شیکاگو، طبقات بالای اقتصادی همواره در رقابت برای بهترین نقش های اجتماعی و موقعیت های فضایی پیروز می شوند و دارای قدرت دستکاری و اصلاح فضای شهری در راستای منافع خود هستند. نوشتار حاضر می کوشد از طریق ارائه یک تفسیر جایگزین، یعنی تفسیر مبتنی بر مکتب واسازی، تفسیر مکتب فوق را درباره مناسبات میان ثروت، قدرت و حرکات فضایی جمعیت واسازی کند. برای دستیابی به این هدف، نظریه شهر مناطق متحدالمرکز که توسط برگس ارائه شده است، به عنوان چارچوب تحلیل پژوهش حاضر انتخاب می شود. تفسیر حاضر استدلال می کند که طبقات ثروتمند همواره طبقات اصلح و قدرتمند رقابت های شهری نبوده و دارای نقش تعیین کنندگی نهایی برای شکل دهی به حرکات جمعیتی درون شهر نیستند، بلکه طبقات کم درآمد اجتماعی نیز قادرند مکان استقرار طبقات بالای اقتصادی را در راستای منافع طبقاتی خود، تعیین و کنترل کنند. تفسیر مقاله حاضر نشان می دهد که طبقات بالای اقتصادی نمی توانند ساختار فضایی- اجتماعی شهر را صرفا برحسب اراده آزاد و منافع طبقاتی خود دستکاری و کنترل کنند، زیرا آن ها در رقابت با طبقات کم درآمد برای تصرف بهترین موقعیت های فضایی برای سکونت که در فاصله کمتری از مرکز شهر قرار دارتد، شکست می خورند. در تحلیل الگوی حرکات سکونتی جمعیت، باید ساختار قدرت شهری را به صورت شبکه ای از مناسبات قدرت در نظر گرفت که در میان تمام طبقات اجتماعی توزیع شده است و در تملک یک طبقه خاص اجتماعی نیست. شهر یک کلیت ساختاری است و طبقات اجتماعی، نه براساس اراده آزاد و مطلق طبقاتی خود، بلکه در راستای وحدت کلی حاکم بر آن کلیت عمل می کنند.

    کلیدواژگان: رقابت، قدرت، موقعیت های فضایی بهینه، حرکات سکونتی جمعیت، پیوستگی ساختاری شهر
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  • Mohammad Mirzaie * Pages 5-7
  • Marjan Rashvand Sorkhkoule *, Fatemeh Vojdani, Mahsa Larijani Pages 9-50

    The aim of the study was investigating the factors affecting the attitude towards spouse selection among female students at University of Tehran. The data were collected through a survey using researcher-designed questionnaire. The statistical population comprised female students from various faculties at University of Tehran, across undergraduate, master's and doctoral levels. The sample size was determined to be 400 individuals using Cochran's formula, and the sampling method employed was simple stratified random sampling. The findings showed that the desire to friendship between boys and girls and the extent of social networks usage are the strongest predictors of attitude towards  spouse choice among students. Subsequently, factors such as family engagement, aspiration for gender equality, educational background, and age were also play a crucial role. The study suggests enhancing self-awareness and decision-making skills to youth, and to train families to understand the needs of the younger generation, thereby bridging the generational gap. Emphasizing their agency, responsibility, and selectiveness is also recommended.  Furthermore, reforming spouse selection patterns can strengthen family foundations, increase childbearing desire, and improve the national demographic trends, as any rise in fertility and childbearing in Iran occurs within the family context.

    Introduction

    The institution of marriage has undergone significant changes in recent decades, and the way of spouse selection have evolved accordingly. This research aims to examine the factors influencing young people's attitudes toward choosing a spouse. Understanding these factors is crucial for facilitating a more appropriate spouse selection process, particularly in Iranian society where childbearing occurs within the marital framework. Therefore, family stability is also a necessary prerequisite for childbearing, making the examination of spouse selection methods key to successful marriages and life stability. Awareness of these factors is valuable for professionals in spouse selection training or marriage counseling, as well as for strengthen family foundations, increase childbearing desire, and improve the national demographic trends.

    Methods and Data

    The current study focuses on the factors influencing spouse selection attitudes among female students at the University of Tehran. Data were gathered through a survey using a researcher-designed questionnaire, targeting female students across various faculties and academic levels. A sample size of 400 was determined using Cochran's formula, with stratified random sampling method. This cross-sectional survey is applied research aimed at collecting data through structured questionnaires in 2018. The reliability of the Likert scale items was verified using Cronbach's alpha.

    Findings

    The study examines the relationship between independent variables (age, education, gender equality, family interaction, friendships, and social media use) and the dependent variable (attitude toward spouse selection). The Pearson correlation coefficient confirmed significant relationships between all independent variables and the dependent variable. Multiple linear regression analysis was utilized to assess the combined impact of these variables.
    The analysis revealed that friendships and social media use are the strongest predictors of spouse selection attitudes, followed by family interaction, gender equality, education, and age. The findings suggest that as female students age and their education and social media use increase, so does their modern attitude toward spouse selection and autonomy in choosing a spouse. Conversely, increased family interaction correlates with decreased autonomy. Collectively, these variables account for 58% of the variance in spouse selection attitudes.
    In summary, the research findings revealed that:The higher the level of social media usage, the greater the individual's inclination toward autonomy in spouse selection.
    Individuals with less family interaction tend to have a stronger inclination toward autonomy in choosing a spouse.
    The more individuals prefer friendships with boys, the more inclined they are to choose their own spouse.
    A stronger inclination toward gender equality correlates with a higher preference for autonomy in spouse selection.
    Individuals with higher education levels tend to have a greater inclination toward autonomy in spouse selection.

    Conclusion and Discussion

    The study identified key factors influencing spouse selection among female students, highlighting the role of social media, family interaction, friendships, gender equality, and education level in determining autonomy in spouse selection. Educating young adults about these factors can improve their decision-making regarding marriage. Universities are strategically positioned to offer educational programs on decision-making, spouse selection, and marriage readiness. Given that fertility and parenting in Iranian society are contingent upon marriage, informed spouse selection is pivotal for family stability and increased fertility.
    Recommendations include providing self-awareness and decision-making training to young individuals, especially in universities, and educating families to understand and support the younger generation's desires, thereby bridging generational gaps and enhancing agency, responsibility, and autonomy. Such measures can strengthen families, encourage parenting, and improve the national demographic trends, as fertility and parenting increases in Iran occur within the family context, with marriage being a prerequisite for childbearing. Making informed choices thus contributes to family stability and, ultimately, to increased fertility.

    Keywords: Spouse selection attitudes, Family interaction impact, Social network influence, Desire for gender equality, Female university students, University of Tehran
  • Ahmad Kalate Sadati *, Sara Sadeghieh, Fatemeh Jafari Naeimi, Zahra Sadeghian Moghadam Pages 51-91

    Social changes in the Iranian family have resulted in various social constructs, such as  lenghty period of being singleness among women. The experience of celibacy varies across different cohorts and age groups. Considering the rise in age at marriage and increasing the number of unmarried women in society, this research aims to explore experience of celibacy among unmarried women who are 35 years and older in Yazd, Iran.  The present research is a qualitative inquiry carried out in 2023, involved 15 purposefully selected unmarried women as participants. Thematic analysis was employed to analyze the data, which was then organized into a thematic map. The results showed that majority of participants are dissatisfied with their single status, experiencing a  life filled with challenges related to their unmarried state. The research findings suggest that societal and cultural prejudices against single women, together with personal barriers, have negatively impacted their mental, emotional, and social well-being. The themes of the research include the coping with singleness, normative super-gaps, the challenges of discrimination and societal pressures, idealism, and uncertain life trajectory. The core theme is ‘postponed femininity’, signifying potential that remain unfulfilled. This research sheds light on both the individual and societal aspects of celibacy among  women in the baby boom cohort of 1980s and earlier periods. 

    Introduction

     Iranian society has been experiencing significant social and cultural shifts in recent decades. Among the institutions profoundly impacted by these shifts is the family unit. The concept of girls' celibacy is a socially constructed phenomenon, shaped by personal interpretation and lived experiences. Research indicates a rising trend of older unmarried women in Iran over the last two decades. According to the statistics by Statistical Center of Iran, the proportion of never-married indivisuals above age 40 has been on the rise since 1996. Also, the number of never-married women above 40 years old surpasses that of their male counterparts in the same age groups. Therefor, contemporary Iranian women confront historical and cultural barriers defined by traditiones on one side and the expansive force of social change in modern world on the other. For these women, celibacy can carry unique meanings, understandings, and interpretations.
    Women from the baby boom cohorts of 1980s or earlier have faced celibacy in distinct way; they have seen their chances of marriage diminish, leading them towards lifelong singleness. Additionally, they are dealing with new social and cultural challenges and significant societal changes that make their experiences particularly unique. They reside within traditionl families from which they cannot escape from. They observe profound cultural shifts in the subsequent cohorts of women. They also have personal and social needs which, due to psychological and cultural constraints, cannot be conventionally resolved. In response to the research gap in this area, this research explores the perceptions and experiences of celibacy among a selected group of women in Yazd. Thus, the study poses the question: How does culture influence the state of celibacy? In other word, this research aims to explore the interplay between cultural context and celibacy.

    Method and Data

    The present research is a qualitative study was carried out among unmarried women aged 35 and older in Yazd, Iran. Data were gathered in 2023 through semi-structured interviews, with participants selected via targeted and heterogeneous sampling method to ensure maximum diversity. To provide richer descriptions and narratives about the research subject, participants included women from various educational levels, professions, as well as social statuses, as well as some immigrant who have settled in Yazd for a long period of time. The interview process continued until data saturation. The research employed thematic analysis. At the end of the study, an attempt was made to construct a thematic map to elucidate the findings and to better conceptualize the findings. 

    Findings

    Overal, the participants in the research found themselves in a conflicting and fragile situation, which left them unsatisfied,  with no apparent way out. They had experienced regret over missed opportunities for marriage, with many of their previous ideals that once guided them have largely not been fulfilled now. Participants are grappling with cultural, social, and familial challenges that complicate their adaptation to the evolving expectations of the younger generations. They find themselves in a phase of cultural deprivation where, despite the broader acceptance of celibacy, they experience societal neglect, particularly as single, home-bound women. Additionally, they are unable to adjust to new social realities. The participants' statements highlighted the significant  role of cultural elements in shaping celibacy and its implications. Amidst cultural shifts within a traditionally conservative milieu, our findings revealed a cultural residue, manifested in five main themes: coping with singleness, normative super-gaps, the challenges of discrimination and societal pressure, idealism, and uncertain life trajectory.

    Conclusion and Discussion

    The research findings reveal that the persistence of femininity within the context of research is influenced by cultural and social changes.  It is crucial for fostering stability in cultural dimensions and attitudes at both the individual and societal levels,  especially concerning marriage and celibacy to overcome these challenges. It seems that moving beyond these conditions to a stage where marriage is not perceived as as an obstacle requires creating a supportive familial, cultural, and social environment that aligns with the evolving inclinations of women towards independence. It also necessitates paying attention to the physical aspect when discussing having children. A cultural realignment through a  reassessing gender roles is ncessary. In essence, social support mechanisms, such as enabaling independence in getting married and having children, creating a supportive environment for marriage at older ages, and redefining the ideal age for marriage, can effectively lower the celibacy rate among woment and motivate them to marry.

    Keywords: Unmarried women, Celibacy, Postponed femininity, Uncertain life trajectory, idealism
  • Fatemeh Torabi, Kazem Saravani * Pages 93-138

    The relationship between housing and fertility has been documented in the global literature and home ownership had been introduced as one of the main effective mechanisms in this area. The research gap in domestic studies prompted the authors to investigate the effects of home ownership on the ideal time for the birth of the first child after marriage (i.e., transition to parenthood) using the information of the National Survey of Marriage in 2016-2017. The results of the event history analysis showed that there was a relationship between home ownership and the ideal time of childbeaqring; in that the ideal time of transition to parenthood was faster among couples living in paternal property than among both homeowners and tenants. This finding together with the fact that higher income of paternal family accelerates the desire to have children emphasizes the importance of paternal family by providing housing or other forms of financial support in attitudes related to having children in Iran. Facilitation of childbearing through intergenerational transfer of wealth (from parents to children) is not far-fetched considering the current economic conditions (including youth unemployment and high inflation). The paper also found a positive relationship between education and the preferred time of transition to parenthood, which can be considered as a reversal in the established relationship between education and childrberinag in Iran. Future studies can help to explain this phenomenon by examining the influencing factors. 

    Introduction

    Demographic studies in the field of family and fertility have mainly focused on the two variables of education and employment in the past decades and have paid less attention to the issue of housing. One of the most important mechanisms of how housing affects couples' fertility and childbearing preferences is the homeownership or tenure (Vignoli et al, 2013), because most of couples prefer to provide high-quality and safe housing for life before having children. Nevertheless, the relationship between housing and childbearing in Iran has not been studied much. This is despite the fact that in line with the rapid fertility transition in the last three decades, the housing tenure status of Iranians has moved from being an owner to being a tenant. during which the percentage of people living in private (owner) residential houses has decreased from 73.4% in 1996 to 60.5% in 2016, while the percentage of people living in rented houses has almost doubled and reached from 15.4% to 30.7% in the mentioned period. (Statistical Centre of Iran, 1996-2016).
    Therefore, the question arises whether there is a relationship between homeownership and the ideal time to become a parent in the context of Iran or not? This article tries to answer the above question by using the data of the national marriage survey conducted in 2016-2017.

    Methods and Data:

    This is a quantitative study that was conducted through a secondary analysis. The data used was taken from the National Marriage Survey, which was compiled by the Iranian Civil Registry Organization in 2016 and 2017. The data collection of the survey has been done from all provincial centers (except Tehran province) and the statistical population included couples who went to laboratories for pre-marriage tests.
    Multivariate analysis was done using the event history analysis in Stata (version 17), and our statistical model was the proportional hazards or the Cox regressions. Therefore, in this article, the relationship between homeownership and the ideal time for the birth of the first child after marriage has been investigated with Cox regression and by controlling other variables that can be theoretically influential.

    Findings

    The survival function using the Kaplan-Meier estimator shows that the preference for the birth of the first child is significantly more common in the early years of family formation, so that about 68% of the observations tend to have their first child one year after marriage. Also, the output in terms of the type of homeownership shows that there is no significant difference between the time preference of the transition to parenthood among homeowners and renters. On the other hand, the "other" and “paternal” group had a significant difference in this regard, which seems that living in paternal property after marriage is associated with the desire to have children faster.
    In the next step, we ran Cox regression models to control and explain the influence of the social, demographic and economic characteristics of the sample in this relationship. Generally, it can be said that the most important finding of the regression models was that no significant difference was found between homeowners and renters in the attitude towards the ideal time for the birth of the first child, and this relationship in Iran's special socio-cultural context can be seen between homeowner couples and those who live in their father's property after marriage. This finding and another one about the desire to have children faster among people whose father's family has a higher income, emphasizes the importance of intergenerational wealth flow in fertility and its difference with the famous theory of John Caldwell (1976 and 2005) in the context of Iran. In this way, the transfer of paternal inheritance to children and economic support from them leads to acceleration of childbearing and increase of fertility among the second generation (children). In other words, people who receive more economic support from the paternal family and more wealth and assets (such as housing and shelter) are transferred to them, will become parent faster.
    Another interesting finding of this article was the positive relationship between education and the time preference of the transition to parenthood, which can be considered a sign of the reversal of the negative relationship between education and fertility in Iran. Future studies can help to explain this phenomenon by examining the factors affecting it.

    Conclusion and Discussion

    Although our findings were not in line with some past studies in other countries, the way some variables such as ethnicity and income of the father's family influence in this analysis showed that the mechanism of influencing homeownership on childbearing in Iran can be related to cultural roots and intergenerational transfers, and this was actually the most important finding of the paper.
    The results of this article can be an incentive to conduct other studies on how housing affects fertility in Iran. The interaction between childbearing and housing cannot be limited only to the issue of access to housing or the type of tenure; Therefore, future studies should be able to answer questions about access to suitable housing or access to housing that meets the current norms and desires of couples. Considering the economic conditions prevailing in Iran and the stunning growth of housing prices in recent years, the need to include the housing issue in Iranian fertility studies is felt more than ever as one of the possible obstacles to realizing the economic security of couples.

    Keywords: Home ownership, Fertility, Transition to parenthood, Intergenerational transfer of wealth, Event history analysis, Iran
  • Elham Ghafari *, Mansoureh Zarean, Shohre Rowshani Pages 139-181

    Male infertility is one of the reasons for accepting adopted children in Iranian families. While the discourse on infertility and child adoption predominantly focuses on women, thereby characterizing the issues as 'feminized', this study employs a descriptive phenomenological approach to explore the lived experiences of 10 infertile men in Mashhad who have adopted children. Study participants were purposefully chosen from the 'Hammasirha' Telegram group. The data obtained from the in-depth semi-structured interview, conducted form February 2022 to May 2023, underwent analysis using the Colaizzi's method. The analysis reveals three distinct main themes: 1). "Burden of Childlessness" which encompsses the ‘suffering of infertility’, ‘suffering from facing significant others’, ‘empty nest’ and ‘unsuccessful treatment’; 2). "Difficult Transition" including ‘challenges directed at oneself’, ‘challenges directed at taking action’, ‘challenges directed at others’ and the ‘challenges related to the adopted child’; and 3). "Paternity Without a Body" highlighting ‘endless concerns’, ‘development of paternal identity’, ‘the desire to have children’ and ‘modern fatherhood’. The findings revealed that in response to societal pressures and the stigma attached to being childless, these men chose adoption as a pathway to establish their paternal identity and to respond to their wives' maternal instincts. Despite ongoing concerns, they expressed satisfaction with their decision and viewed it positively.

    Introduction

    The phenomenon of infertility encompasses a range of subsequent challenges that extend beyond medical concerns, including the psychological and social strategies individuals adopt to cope with childlessness. These strategies, particularly adoption, are subject to varying interpretations and emotional responses by men and women alike. Gender is not merely a biological distinction but a category that is deeply rooted in the social context (Miller & Scholnick, 2000), which plays a pivotal role in shaping how individuals confront the complexities of infertility and the pursuit of parenthood through alternative means such as adoption. Male infertility, which refers to the inability of a man to impregnate a woman, accounts for between 40 and 50 percent (Fisher & Hammarberg, 2017) of all infertility cases (Agarwal et al., 2020). Recent researches show that infertility often leads to men's masculinity being questioned (Hanna & Gough, 2016) and that the stigma associated with male infertility is widespread (Gannon, Glover & Abel, 2004; Ozkan et al. 2015). This stigma indicates not only individual suffering but also societal pressure men face due to involuntary childlessness (Peronace, Boivin & Schmidt, 2007). Although infertility challenges affect both infertile women and men, research in the social sciences has disproportionately focused on women, with only a small fraction addressing the impact and the experiences of male infertility (Hanna & Gough, 2020). Moreover, due to the prevailing sexist norms, the realm of biological reproduction remains a “feminized space, requiring women's commitment and work” (Hanna & Gough, 2015). The subject of adoption, particularly within the infertility literature, has been received little systematic attention within the literature (Freeark, et al. 2005). To fully understand this domain, new studies is needed that provide appropriate indights into the adoption challenges in the existing socio-cultural context, especially concerning the gender of adoptive parents.
    The current study aims to present a new perspective on the challenges these men have encountered transitioning from infertility to fatherhood, by exploring the lived experiences of infertile men who have adopted children. 

    Data and Methods

    The present study, employing descriptive phenomenology methodology, aims to uncover the lived experiences of infertile men who have adopted a child. The focus is on infertile Iranian men who who have become fathers through adoption. The criteria for inclusion in the study were infertility due to male causes, adoption of a child, a minimum of five years in a childless marital unions, willingness and readiness for an interview, and residence in Mashhad. Data was gathered through in-depth, semi-structured interviews centered on infertility problems, the adoption process, and subsequent post-adoption experiences. The duration of the interviews is 90 minutes on average, stating with the main question, "Where did your adoption story begin?" Follow-up questions were tailored based on prior responses, becoming increasingly specific. Purposeful sampling was utilized to select participants who could provide rich insights into the adoption experience among infertile men, acknowledging that such individuals are key informants for this research topic (Saunders, Lewis, & Thornhill, 2012). 

    Findings

    Analysis of data on the experiences of infertile men participating in the research were organized into three main themes: 1). the experience of infertility labeled as "Burden of Childlessness"; 2). the experiences of the adoption process termed "Difficult Transition"; and 3). the experiences of the rout to fatherhood described as "Paternity without a Body".
    The "Burden of Childlessness" encompasses the ‘suffering from infertility’, ‘suffering from facing significant others’, ‘empty nest’ and ‘unsuccessful treatment’; the "Difficult Transition" covers the ‘challenges directed at oneself’, ‘challenges directed at taking action’, ‘challenges directed at others’ and the ‘challenges related to the adopted child’; and the "Paternity without a Body" involves ‘endless concerns’, ‘development of paternal identity’, ‘the desire to have children’ and ‘modern fatherhood’.

    Conclusion and Discussion

    The theme of "The Burden of Infertility" reveals that men who are the source of infertility have experienced internal negative emotions and societal stigma stemming from their infertility, leading to feeling of inadequacy and deficiency in their sense of masculinity. In fact, these individuals often percieve themselves as not being "complete men", experiencing what is termed "silenced masculinity" (Abbaszadeh et al., 2023), as the prevailing societal image of masculinity is that of a man capable of procreation and fathering children. 
    The analysis of participants' narratives indicates that, in accordance with Goffman (1963), both infertility and childlessness, as well as adoption of a child, lead to both personal and societal stigma for infertile men who become adoptive parents.
    The findings suggest that infertile men who proceed with adopting a child confront numerous challenges, including including grappling with infertility both internally (with themselves) and externally (with their spouse and others), the dilemma of choosing between treatment or adoption, as well as the procedural complexities and the post-adoption consequences. Therefore, dealing with each of these problems necessitates specialized counseling and psychological intervention, which is especially crucial given the significance of the mental well-being of adoptive families and the enhancement of the adoption experience.

    Acknowledgments

    This article is based on the doctoral dissertation of the first author of the article in the field of Women's Studies, which was completed at the Faculty of Women and Family, Qom University of Religions & Denominations,. The authors of the article would like to thank all those who supported this research and the anonymous reviewers of the paper for their constructive feedbacks.

    Keywords: infertility, Childlessness, Adoption, Stigma, Fatherhood experience
  • Masoud Almasi *, Maryam Aslani Pages 183-217

    This research was conducted with the aim of investigating the desire to remarry elderly widows of Feridunshahr city, using an analytical-cross-sectional survey method. The statistical population of all elderly widows of this city is 1254 people and the sample size is estimated to be 264 people with the help of Morgan's table. A researcher-made questionnaire was used to collect data using the quota sampling method. The evaluation of the hypotheses showed that there is a significant correlation between the variables of mental problems, sexual problems, attachment to children, network support and normative inhibitors with the dependent variable. The variables of appearance problems and physical problems among the whole sample are correlated with the dependent variable It was significant that this result was not achieved by gender segregation. Also, the Tendency to remarry was different according to the job variables and the level of literacy of the respondents. The regression analysis shows that the variables of appearance, mental, sexual problems, network support and normative inhibitors have explained more than 55% of the changes in the dependent variable, according to which the research model has good explanatory and predictive power. In general, it can be concluded that the desire to remarry among the elderly men of this city is more than the women and the issue of remarriage of the elderly should be placed as a priority of the responsible institutions and organizations.

    Introduction

    One of the issues and problems of Feridounshahr, a city located in the Isfahan province of Iran, is the considerable number of elderly widows. This situation engenders multiple adverse outcomes, such as reduced self-efficacy, pervasive feelings of hopelessness, and decreased mental well-being. Therefore, conducting a thorough investigation into the factors impeding the remarriage of the elderly is an important research priority, motivated present paper to examine the desire to remarry among elderly widows in Feridunshahr city and the factors that influencing it.

    Methods and data:

    The statistical population included all 1254 elderly widows in Feridounshahr, with a sample size of 264 determined using Morgan's table. Data was collected through a researcher-designed questionnaire, distributed via proportional sampling. The validity of the questionnaires was assessed through form and content evaluations by experts, and reliability was established using the Cronbach's alpha test.

    Findings

    The data analysis suggests that as women age, their interest in remarriage decreases. Furthermore, the longer women remain widowed, the less inclined they are to remarry, a pattern that is not evident among male counterparts. Additionally, an increase in concerns about appearance correlates with a reduced desire to remarry, a finding that does not differ when considering gender separately; thus, gender does not significantly impact this outcome. The findings of the study indicate that increasing sexual and mental health challenges significantly lessen the remarriage interest among respondents. Similarly, an increase in physical health issues also leads to a decline in remarriage interest among the elderly, with no significant difference between genders. The data indicates that increased social interaction difficulties are associated with a decreased likelihood of remarriage, though this was not statistically significant for the men studied. It's noteworthy that a women's loyalty to their previous spouse inversely affects their remarriage interest, a pattern that is not evident in men or the general population studied. The research also shows that increased dependency on children diminishes the likelihood of remarriage for both men and women. Contrarily, women's financial capabilities and assets did not show a significant connection with the desire to remarry, thus not supporting the related hypotheses. However, social network support exhibits a significant relationship with remarriage desire, showing that changes in network support levels correspond with shifts in remarriage interest. Similarly, changes in normative inhibitions directly affect the desire to remarry. It is also highlighted that the remarriage tendency varies according to job roles and literacy levels of the individuals. Regression analysis further demonstrates that appearance, mental, sexual issues, network support, and normative barriers account for over 55% of the variance in the dependent variable, suggesting the research model's strong explanatory and predictive capabilities.

    Discussion and Conclusion

    The rise in life expectancy and changes in the age pyramid's structure have led to an increase in both the elderly population and the duration of old age. This trend shows the need for focused attention and policy development to address the needs of the elderly. Among the most critical needs for this group is the enhancement of mental health, alleviation of loneliness, and prevention of depression. Furthermore, marriage serves as an effective means to quality of life indicators—encompassing physical, mental, health, and social aspects—among the elderly. However, this has been hindered by a multitude of cultural, customary barriers, and entrenched societal norms. It is imperative that this matter receives prioritized consideration from the relevant institutions and organizations.

    Keywords: Tendency to remarry, elderly widows, Fereydunshahr city, Social support network, Gender differences
  • Ilnaz Amiri, Aliyar Ahmadi *, Asghar Mirfardi Pages 219-264

    This study explores the semantic interpretation of marriage between Iranian women and Afghan men. With Iran becoming a significant hub for Afghan migrants in recent decades, driven by geographical proximity and intensified by political unrest, economic strife, and socio-political factors in Afghanistan, this research adopts a qualitative research methodology and grounded theory approach. Targeted sampling was utilized to enlist Iranian women married to Afghan men, with data gathered through semi-structured interviews. The sample included 12 women, determined by theoretical saturation. Data analysis involved a three-step coding process, identifying 106 concepts, 35 subcategories, 10 main categories, and one core category. The main categories covered causal conditions such as patriarchy and forced marriage, contextual factors like family difficulties and poverty, and interventional aspects such as diverse response perceptions and legal barriers. The core category highlighted the theme of "unwanted selection and life." The findings reveal significant challenges in the marriages of Iranian women to Afghan men, shaped by social conditions, leading to an undesirable trajectory for these women and their families.

    Introduction

    Migration, a significant driver of demographic change, induces deep and multifaceted transformations within population, both in the long and short term. Afghanistan, due to historical and cultural ties with its neighbors and marked by political and economic turmoil, has become a prominent source of migrants to Iran.
    In host countries, intermarriage between migrants and native populations is commonplace, signifying cultural assimilation and social integration. In Iran, the influx of Afghan migrants has increased the incidence of mixed marriages, bringing challenges for Iranian women stemming from cultural differences, societal stigma, and legal intricacies. With the growing number of such unions, issues like poverty, children's educational access, and lack of support services have emerged, highlighting the complex interplay between migration, cultural adaptation, and family dynamics in Iranian society. This study aims to explore the semantic underpinnings of mixed marriages and shed light on Iranian women's perceptions of these unions within the Iranian socio-cultural milieu. 

    Methods and Data:

    This study adopts a qualitative research methodology and grounded theory framework, following Strauss and Corbin's systematic approach. The research focuses on Iranian women married to Afghan spouses, selecting Shiraz as the study's research field due to its long-standing acceptance of Afghan migrants, offering a suitable context for this inquiry. Participants were selected through purposive sampling and were chosen based on their readiness and willingness to participate in interviews. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 12 participants, lasting between 40 to 90 minutes on average, recorded with participants' consent, transcribed word-for-word, and coded to identify both main and sub-themes.
    Ensuring the credibility and trustworthiness of qualitative research is crucial. Guba and Lincoln (1994) criterion of "trustworthiness" was employed to evaluate the research's quality. The researchers avoided personal bias, precluding preconceived notions during data collection and analysis phases, thus reinforcing the credibility of the findings. Moreover, expert oversight and guidance were incorporated throughout the interviewing, data analysis, and coding stages to enhance the reliability of the data and the conclusions drawn. The participants were 12 Iranian women who were married to Afghan men, living in Shiraz. They mostly had education up to pre-secondary school and were aged between 30 to 48 years. These participants provided insights into their marital lives with Afghan spouses.

    Findings

    Through data coding and analysis, 106 concepts, 35 subcategories, 10 main categories, and one core category were identified. The study's main categories fell into primary conditions ("paternalistic attitudes and forced marriage," "cohesion and pressure from foreign nationals"), contextual conditions ("hardships within the paternal household," "lack and scarcity of awareness," "poverty and feelings of deprivation," and "fatalism"), and interventional conditions ("perceptions of diverse responses," "administrative and legal obstacles," "lack of foresight," "financial and occupational instability for foreign nationals").
    The analysis of concepts and categories in the study reveals various factors influencing the marriages and lives of Iranian women with Afghan spouses. The challenges faced by some of these women range from
    oscillating between coercion and a kind of enforced choice, includes hardships within the paternal household, lack of awareness, poverty, fatalism, paternalistic attitudes leading to forced marriage, cohesion and pressure from foreign nationals, and lack of foresight. The core category emerged is "unwanted selection and life," representing a coerced choice.
    While exploring the semantic essence of these concepts, one theme stands out prominently: coerced choice. This theme underscores the lack of agency Iranian women face amidst numerous adversities, pushing them to endure a life they would not ordinarily choose, under normal circumstances. Their decisions are not choosing between good and excellent, or even good and bad options; but rather are between existence and non-existence. Therefore, what seems like a choice, it is actually a quest for survival rather than a true preference.

    Conclusion and Discussion

    In conclusion, the extensive migration of Afghans to Iran and the resulting marriages between some of Iranian women and Afghan men have reshaped family dynamics and introduced challenges for some Iranian families. For these women, the usual and voluntary choice in marriage has been replaced by the acceptance of undesirable conditions that it seems to be their preferred choices. This family lifestyle bears psychological, identity, and social implications for the women, their families, and children resulting from these marriages. In this regard, further research on the multiple consequences of such marriages is recommended. From both an operational and legal standpoint, it is recommended to implement effective oversight of foreign nationals' presence and their marriages, coupled with a comprehensive reform of migration regulations.

    Acknowledgments

    This article is extracted from the master thesis of the first author in the field of demography, completed at the Faculty of Economics, Management and Social Sciences of Shiraz University. The authors appreciate the participants in the interviews of the research and the anonymous reviewers of the present paper for their constructive feedbacks.

    Keywords: Iranian women, Afghan men, Marriage conditions, qualitative study, Semantic perception
  • Reza Nobakht *, Valiollah Rostamalizadeh Pages 265-304

    This study aims to evaluate the tendency for international migration among individuals aged 15-29 and to examine the impact of structural and contextual factors on this inclination. Utilizing a structured questionnaire,  the research surveyed a sample of 378 from a statistical population of 20,656 residents in Bushehr aged 15-29. The findings indicate that individuals who are married, male, and belong to large families exhibit a stronger migration tendency than their counterparts. Results of regression analysis show that 66 percent of the  youth's migration propensity is attributable to structural and contextual factors.  According to Carling's aspiration/ability model, environment variables such as inequality, hope for the future, and life satisfaction, while the remaining 16% can be explained by other contextual factors and individual characteristics. Overall, structural and environmental factors significantly influence the youth's inclination towards international migration.

    Introduction

    While internal migration has traditionally attracted more scholarly attention in Iran, international migration has become increasingly contentious with complex implications in recent years. Iran has witnessed a demographic shift towards a younger population, which, coupled with economic and social challenges, has heightened the importance of understanding this phenomenon.  Recent studies have focused on various aspects of international migration, particularly among the youth population. Several studies have examined the influence of social, cultural, and political factors on the desire to emigrate from Iran (Ebrahimi, 2002; Javaheri & Serajzadeh, 2005; Moqaddas & Sharafy, 2009). Other studies have focused on globalization and cosmopolitan values (Zokaei, 2006), a sense of national identity and the significance of family and reference groups (Movahed & Niazi, 2008), the identity and role of the family and reference groups (Khajenouri & Shams, 2006), discrimination, economic and welfare conditions (Alaeddini et al., 2005), and the role of social networks (Sadeghi & Seyyed Hosseini, 2018). This study investigates the attitudes of 15–29-year-olds in Bushehr, an industrial city in south of Iran, towards emigration and identifies key factors influencing these attitudes. Considering Bushehr's favorable employment conditions due to the oil and gas industries, this research examines whether economic factors predominantly drive the youth's migration propensity or if other elements are also influential. 

    Methods and Data

    This study adopts a descriptive-analytical method, using a structured questionnaire for data collection. The statistical population includes 20,656 individuals aged 15-29 residing in Bushehr for at least five years. A sample size of 378 was determined using Cochran’s formula. Cluster sampling was used initially, followed by simple random sampling for final selection. The questionnaire covered demographic questions and concepts such as migration desire, inequality, belonging, familial relationships, and life satisfaction, based on the study's theoretical and empirical framework. The instrument's validity and reliability were confirmed through prior research and Cronbach’s alpha. 

    Findings

    The findings indicate that individuals who are married, male, and belong to large families have a higher tendency for migration compared to the general population. Structural and contextual factors account for 66 percent of the migration propensity among the youth, as shown by  regression analysis. Carling's aspiration/ability model suggests that environmental variables—such as inequality, future prospects, and life satisfaction—explain about 50 percent of the variance in the dependent variable. The remaining 16 percent is attributed to other contextual factors and individual characteristics at the micro level. In sum, structural and environmental elements play a crucial role in shaping the youth's migration tendencies.

    Conclusion and Discussion

    The theoretical framework by Carling (2002) and Carling & Schewel (2018) suggests that migration desires arise from both macroscopic and individual levels. In this study, macro-level environmental variables—such as inequality, hope for the future, and life satisfaction—have a more pronounced and effective role than micro-level variables like family and education. When considering both macro and micro variables, the model can more accurately and comprehensively analyze the tendency towards international migration than other theoretical models. The results, based on socioeconomic and demographic factors, allow for a more precise model of youth migration by expanding these factors into broader formats and structures. While this study highlights the prominence of structural factors, other researches indicate that the influence of these variables can vary regionally. To better understand the younger generation's migration inclination, it is advisable to compare at least two regions or provinces with different economic, social, demographic, and infrastructural conditions in future studies. Furthermore, it is recommended that a multi-level study examine the impact of structural and regional factors more thoroughly, incorporating the macro variables.

    Keywords: International migration tendency, Youth migration, Contextual-structural factors, Aspiration, ability model, Environmental variables
  • Ali Sharifi, Mohammad Taghi Abbasi-Shavazi *, Halimeh Enayat, Serajeddin Mahmoudiani Pages 305-357

    In this research, the study of gender in Iranian women's international migrations has been studied in the interpretive paradigm and the qualitative methodology of Grounded Theory. The data were collected through in-depth interviews with independent immigrant Iranian women living in Western developed countries, using snowball sampling. Theoretical saturation was reached after 15 interviews. The core category was 'femininity and closure' and the causal conditions governing the core category were 'patriarchy, women and feelings of insecurity, gender restrictions, gender stereotypes and social exclusion of women'. The participants' strategy against the core category was "liberation from institutionalized patriarchy". The findings show that the social context and the intervening factors, shaped the confrontation between female agency with male structures in Iran, which influenced women’s migration strategy. The women migrated to seek more opportunities for their femininity and self-realization. The research findings indicate that gender as a social and cultural construct is closely linked to women's migration process. 

    Introduction

    Iran has witnessed a significant increase in the share of women migrants since 2015. However, migration studies in Iran, have largely overlooked the growing and independent participation of women in these movements. This research aims to answer the following question: what are the conditions and platforms that enable independent international migration among Iranian women? 

    Method and data

    This study used a qualitative approach and collected data through in-depth interview technique and grounded theory technique. The study participants were Iranian women who migrated independently and resided in developed western countries. The data collection was done using semi-structured in-depth interview and non-probability purposive sampling based on snowball method. 

    Findings

    Through continuous comparison of the data, 523 quotations were extracted. 106 concepts or open codes emerged from these quotations in the open coding stage. After reviewing the data and comparing the concepts repeatedly, 14 categories were extracted. These categories were categorized as causal conditions, intervening factors, background factors, strategy and consequence in the central and selective coding stages. The main categories of the research are shown in Table 1.Table 1: The categories extracted from qualitative data analysisThe Nature of categoriesThe main categoriesCore category Casual condition  Patriarchy     Femininity and closure Woman and insecurityGender stereotypesGender-based deprivationsSocial exclusion of women Contextual conditionthe instability of Iran's general situationideological hegemonylack of meritocracyacademic inefficiencyIntervening conditionsimmigration networkUniversity as launch padStrategyliberation from institutionalized patriarchyConsequencedisembedded and migration 

    Conclusion and Discussion

    The findings indicate that female gender, along with economic, political and ideological categories, as well as dissatisfaction with the administrative system and the academic institution, influenced the migration and disembedding process of these women.In their narratives, most of these independent women migrants to Western industrialized countries have talked about the prominent role of categories associated with female gender in shaping their migration. These categories have been identified under the headings of patriarchy, women and the sense of insecurity, gender-related stereotypes, gender-based deprivation and social exclusion of women, which, together with economic and political instability, ideological hegemony, lack of meritocracy and dissatisfaction with the institution of the university, motivated these women to migrate to Western developed countries.The migration network, as the communication links with abroad, and the university platform as an environment that introduces people to the outside world and its facilities and opportunities, also facilitated their migration. In other words, the confrontation of female agency with male structures under the influence of background conditions and intervening factors led to the migration of the participants, which can be called "emergency-based selection" or "forced selection".Based on the results of this study, to reduce the outflow of women's migration, it is recommended that the political institutions should try to weaken the patriarchal system that dominates the various domains of women's lives. They should also create the conditions for the participation and recognition of more women in different sectors of society and reduce the gender gap in the country. AcknowledgmentsThis article is based on the doctoral dissertation of the first author in the field of sociology, completed at the Faculty of Economics, Management and Social Sciences of Shiraz University. The authors appreciate the participants in the interviews of the research and the anonymous reviewers of the present paper for their constructive feedbacks.

    Keywords: Women, Gender, Patriarchy, Closure, International Migration
  • Lida Kalhori Nadrabadi *, Paria Torabi Kahlan, Mohammad Shiri Pages 359-404

    Reverse migration as a demographic phenomenon is influenced by various causes and factors. As this trend continues and large numbers of migrants arrive in rural areas, the government faces the challenge of providing basic rural infrastructure and services to meet the needs of the migrant population. Therefore, managing and formulating supportive and encouraging policies and creating a suitable platform for reverse migration can be one of the most important solutions to address this challenging issue. In this research, for the first time in the country, we evaluate the trend of urban-rural migration and identif its causes using Labor Force Survey Database during 2017-2021. The research findings show that urban-to-rural migrations and their causes are strongly influenced by the socio-economic characteristics of migrants. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to different sections of the society and continuously investigate urban-to-rural migrations based on sustainable development indicators in the country's villages. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression model fitting on the data during the five-year period showed that age, sex, activity status and education level are related to urban to rural migration. 

    Introduction

    According to the results of the 2011 population and housing census, the amount of urban to rural migrants in Iran is more than the number of rural to urban migrants. It seems that the reverse flow of migration from urban to rural areas, which is called reverse migration, has been started. However, investigating the flow of urban to rural migration and identifying the reasons of this type of migration in Iran, especially in short time intervals, has been less discussed. The issue is due to the lack of a database or a specific framework for investigating and evaluating this type of migration.Until now, the main source of information and data for investigating migration patterns and its reasons has been the latest population and housing census. However, due to the fact that the censuses are carried out with a frequency of five or ten years, it is not possible to continuously monitor internal migrations and their causes. Therefore, it is important to find other data sources to monitor the flow of urban to rural migrations in shorter time intervals. Investigations showed that the only other source other than the census that provides information is the Labor Force Survey (LFS), which is conducted annually by Statistical Center of Iran. The general purpose of this paper is to estimate the number of urban to rural migrants during the years 2017 to 2021 at national level, to investigate its causes, and to identify the socio-economic characteristics of migrants during these years using LFS data. 

    Methods and Data

    The research method is the secondary analysis of the data obtained from the labor force survey. Descriptive statistics are presented and the logistic regression model has also been used to investigate the factors affecting urban to rural migration. According to the definition of the LFS, those household members whose Length of stay (continuously until the survey time) was less than 12 months in that city or village are known as immigrants. The target population in LFS is the members of private settled or collective households. The sampling method is stratified two-stage cluster sampling. The annual sample size in rural areas is about 94 thousand households. Since LFS is not done centrally in a specific time of the year, the duration of people's stay is not measured at a certain point of time and the same for everyone. The causes of migration listed in the LFS questionnaire are similar to those mentioned in the 2011 census and include seeking work, looking for better work, job transfer, education, graduation, beginning or ending of compulsory military service, follow the household and others. 

    Findings

    In this section a summary of results including, the estimation of the number of urban to rural migrants using the LFS data from 2017 to 2021 by reasons, gender and activity status is presented at national level. Table 1- The number of immigrants from the urban to rural areas by gender and the reason for migration during the years 2017 to 2021 According to the Table 1, the highest and the lowest amount of urban to rural migrations among men during the entire period under review was due to begin or end of compulsory military service, education and graduation, respectively. The highest number of urban to rural migrants among women was due to follow the household. In the total period of five years, it can be stated that the total number of migrations was higher for men than for women.According to the results of Table 2, beginning or end of compulsory military service, seeking work, looking for better work, job transfer are main reasons of urban to rural migration among employees during the five-year period. But the reason for migration of inactive people is different from that of employed people, that is follow the household. In the total period of five years, it can be stated that the number of employed immigrants has been more than other people.  Table 2- The number of immigrants from the urban to rural areas by activity status and the reason for migration during the years 2017 to 2021 The effect of various factors on urban to rural migration is investigated using the logistic regression model and based on the available data. In this model, the person's immigration status is considered as the response variable and migration from urban to rural area is considered as a pass event. The independent variables whose information are available from LFS include age, gender, literacy status, activity status, and marital status. Due to the fact that marital status is determined for people aged 10 years and older, model fitting is done for this subgroup of people. The results of fitting the logistic model to the data from 2017 to 2021 are shown in Table 3.As can be seen in Table 3, from 2017 to 2021 urban to rural migration is decreases with increasing age. Also, the odds for women to migrate is less compared to men. Examining the effect of activity status on the odds of migration shows that the chance of migration of unemployed people is higher compared to employed people and the odds of migration of inactive people is lower compared to employed people. But the interaction effect of age and activity status shows that with increasing age, the odds of migration of inactive people is higher compared to working people. This issue can indicate the return of the elderly from the urban to rural areas. Among women, inactive women are more likely to migrate than working women, which can be due to the migration of housewives or female children following the household.
    Table 3- Fitting Logistic regression Model on Urban to Rural Migration Data from 2017 to 2021. 

    Conclusion and Discussion

    The estimation of the number of urban to rural migrants, its causes, as well as the socio-economic characteristics of migrants at the national level, was presented based on the annual data of LFS. Obviously urban to rural migrations are strongly influenced by the socio-economic characteristics of the migrants. Therefore it is essential to consider different  groups of people based on their characteristics in order to formulating support and encouragement policies and creating a suitable platform to meet their needs. AcknowledgementThis paper is based on the research project: “Feasibility Study of Estimating Urban-to-Rural Migrants, 2016 to 2021”, commissioned by the Vice-president for Rural Development and Deprived Areas of the country and conducted at the Statistical Research and Training Centre of Iran, and we thank them for their support.

    Keywords: Reverse Migration, Urban to Rural Migration, Labour Force Survey, Socio-economic characteristics, Logistic regression
  • Mohammad Sasanipour * Pages 405-443

    Over the past fifty years, life expectancy at birth has risen significantly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, including Iran. Nonetheless, significant disparities persist across this region's nations. This study tries to clarify the difference in life expectancy at birth in Iran and Mena region by focusing on the relative contribution of age-sex groups and the causes of death. Utilizing a quantitative approach and secondary data analysis, this research draws upon 2019 mortality data by cause and age for Iran and MENA countries from the estimates of Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. Life expectancy at birth for both Iran and MENA countries was calculated for 2019 using the life table technique, separately for each sex. Subsequently, the decomposition method was employed to assess the contribution of age groups and causes of death in the differences of life expectancy between Iran and MENA. Results indicate that life expectancy for Iranian men was 3.4 years and for women 3.5 years greater than the MENA regional averages. Positive contribution to Iranian higher life expectancy were observed across nearly all age groups, with the exception of the 15-19, 20-24, and 25-29 age groups in men. Child mortality under one year and cardiovascular diseases emerged as the most significant factors in Iran's elevated life expectancy relative to MENA countries. Conversely, traffic accidents were the sole cause of death adversely affecting Iranian men's life expectancy, with a calculated decrement of -0.05 years. Overall, the findings suggest that Iran is at a more advanced stage of epidemiological transition compared to average MENA countries, with life expectancy gains increasingly dependent on mitigating non-communicable disease mortality and addressing aging-related issues. The study also highlights the need for policy measures to reduce youth mortality from traffic accidents.

    Introduction

    The increase in life expectancy from under 40 years globally two centuries ago to over 80 years in many developed nations has fundamentally enhanced the human condition (Milholland and Vijg 2020). This advancement occurred even though, before the mid-19th century, most infants did not survive to adulthood, with only a fortunate few living to an advanced age. Nonetheless, studies on the global burden of diseases reveals significant disparities among countries (Vas et al. 2020). These disparities are also evident at the national level within the Middle East and North Africa region. Over recent decades, these countries have achieved considerable progress in health system development and population health improvement. Yet, the region continues to confront substantial political, economic, social, and health challenges.
    A comparison of mortality indices in Iran with global and regional standards indicates that Iran's mortality rates are comparatively favorable (Health Assessment and Evaluation Institute 2023). Analyzing the mechanisms underlying life expectancy differences at this juncture aids in assessing the health system's efficacy and Iran's potential to enhance life expectancy by pinpointing critical aspects of the mortality pattern. Therefore, this study endeavors to compare the life expectancies of Iran and the MENA region's countries, followed by an examination of the divergent life expectancy patterns, including age-sex distribution and causes of death. 

    Methods and Data:

     The present study is a quantitative research, employing a secondary analysis of existing data. The data utilized herein are taken from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019's estimates. These data include all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality for Iran and MENA countries, by age and sex for the year 2019. Additionally, the exposed population figures were obtained from the same source. Subsequent to acquiring data on deaths and the exposed population, death rates for each age group (nmx) were calculated. Thereafter, life expectancy at birth for Iran and MENA nations in 2019 was determined using life table technique separately for each sex. finally, the decomposition technique was applied to ascertain the contributions of various age groups and causes of death to the disparities in life expectancy between Iran and the MENA region. 

    Findings

     The estimated life expectancy at birth for MENA countries is 72.6 years for men and 76 years for women, while for Iranian men and women, it stands at 76 years and 79.57 years, respectively. These figures indicate that Iranian men and women enjoy a life expectancy that is 3.4 and 3.5 years longer, respectively, than their MENA counterparts. Within the MENA region, Yemen exhibits the lowest life expectancy rates, with Yemeni men and women having life expectancies of 65.72 and 69.94 years, respectively, in 2019. Furthermore, life expectancy at birth for both sexes is below the regional average in Yemen, Sudan, Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, and Syria, whereas it surpasses the average in other nations. In contrast, Iran has one of the highest life expectancies at birth for both genders. Specifically, Kuwait, Turkey, Jordan, Bahrain, and Qatar surpass Iran in male life expectancy, while Tunisia, Turkey, and Kuwait exceed Iran in female life expectancy.
     Decomposition analysis of life expectancy at birth between Iran and MENA countries by age reveals that all age groups, except for males aged 15-19, 20-24, and 25-29 years, have positively influenced Iranian life expectancy, contributing to its overall increase. Notably, mortality in children under one year has played the most significant role in the higher life expectancy in Iran compared to MENA countries, accounting for approximately 0.5 years of the difference (3.4 years for men and 3.5 years for women) in both genders. For males, mortality in the 15-19 and 20-24 age groups has slightly negative impact on Iran's life expectancy.
    Cardiovascular diseases are the leading contributors to the increased life expectancy of Iranian men and women, responsible for 1.43 and 1.36 additional years, respectively, compared to MENA countries. This equates to cardiovascular diseases accounting for 42% and 38% of the enhanced life expectancy in Iranian men and women. Digestive system diseases follow, contributing 0.36 years for men and 0.33 years for women to the life expectancy gains in Iran over MENA countries. Deaths from neoplasms, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes, kidney diseases, respiratory infections, other non-communicable diseases, congenital anomalies, other unintentional injuries (excluding traffic accidents), and intentional injuries have also positively influenced life expectancy in Iran for both sexes in 2019. Among these causes, only traffic accidents have negatively affected the country's life expectancy in men, with a calculated impact of -0.05 years. The study found no significant gender-based differences in the contribution of various causes of death to the life expectancy disparity between Iran and MENA countries. 

    Conclusion and Discussion

    All age groups, except the male youth and traffic accidents, have positively influenced life expectancy in Iran. This is attributed to the fact that the standard death rate from traffic accidents in Iran is one of the highest globally—at 22 deaths per 100,000 population in 2019—which also affects many countries in the region, including Kuwait, Turkey, and Qatar. Given that men are disproportionately impacted by traffic accidents, these incidents rank as the second leading cause of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among Iranian men, whereas they are the sixth, eighth, and tenth leading causes of DALY in Qatar, Kuwait, and Turkey, respectively. The mortality rates among the youth and due to traffic accidents present significant opportunities to enhance life expectancy in Iran, requires special attention.
    The most pronounced disparity in life expectancy between Iran and the MENA region is associated with older age groups and cardiovascular diseases. This may partly result from a higher incidence of unhealthy lifestyles in MENA countries, including smoking, alcohol consumption, and lack of physical activity. Overall, the research indicates that preventable causes of death have substantially contributed to the double burden of life expectancy disparities in Iran relative to MENA nations. Although Iran's life expectancy surpasses that of other regional countries, it remains below the figures for Kuwait and Turkey, with non-communicable diseases, particularly cardiovascular conditions, being the predominant factors. Hence, the establishment of Iran's non-communicable diseases committee and the implementation of the 2015 national action plan targeting these diseases are crucial steps towards bridging this gap.

    Keywords: Life expectancy at birth, Middle East, North Africa, Iran, causes of death, Age-specific mortality, epidemiological transition
  • Elham Nobahar *, Malihe Hadadmoghadam Pages 445-479

    The size distribution of cities in an urban system indicates the quality of the urban system in terms of population distribution of cities, and shows the evolution of distribution over time. The main purpose of this paper is to study the city size distribution for the Iranian urban system for the period 1956-2016. In this regard, the two most important laws in the city size literature - Zipf's and Gibrat's laws- were examined. Analysis have been performed in two parts: large and all cities in the urban system of Iran. The results show that Zipf’s law does not hold for urban system of Iran. Furthermore, the absolute value of coefficient of rank-size is less than one and has a downward trend, which shows that city size distribution is becoming more unequal over time. The results of testing Gibrat's law show that from the year 1956 to 1986, Iran’s urban growth obeys Gibrat's law, while from 1986 onward, this rule does not hold, which indicates a divergence in the trend of growth rate of urbanization in Iran. Moreover, our results show that for the large cities, the urban growth follows the Gibrat's law and the distribution of city sizes is Zipifian with coefficient of one.

    Introduction

    In studying any urban system, what is of paramount importance is the study of urban hierarchy. Studying the distribution of city sizes and the laws governing it helps in understanding the urban hierarchy and finding optimal conditions. The examination of the distribution of city sizes from the past to the present has received a great deal of attention from researchers. In fact, explaining how city size distribution works is recognized as one of the most important theoretical issues in analyzing urban and regional problems (O'sullivan, 2018). The distribution of city sizes, which actually represents the distribution of population among cities, can be a tool for understanding economic efficiency. If we define the size of each city by its population, the distribution of city sizes in an urban system reflects the manner and quality of the urban system in terms of population distribution and shows the trend of distribution changes over time. Zipf's and Gibrat's laws are among the most important and commonly used methods for studying the distribution of city sizes. This study reviews the complete studies conducted in this area and examines Zipf's and Gibrat's laws in the urban system of Iran.

    Methods and Data:

    This applied research analyzed secondary data from the national censuses of Iran. It focused on the population of cities in Iran from 1956 to 2016. The data and information were obtained from the General Population and Housing Census, conducted by Statistical Center of Iran.

    Findings

    The results will be presented in two sections: testing the Zipf’s rule and testing the Gibrat's law:1). Zipf’s Rule test: The Zipf coefficient has a significant difference from one in the urban system of Iran, and Zipf's Rule was not supported. The absolute value of the Zipf coefficient was below one in all years, indicating the divergence of urban growth trends in the urban system of Iran. Additionally, the Zipf coefficient decreased over time, revealing an increasing inequality in the city sizes distribution over time. This suggests that some cities grew too large, and the gap in city sizes in the urban hierarchy widened.
     
    2). Gibrat's Law test: The results of this study showed thaat Gibrat's Law applied to cities with a population above 200,000 in all years. This implied that the growth of the size of these cities was independent of their initial size. However, for all cities, it is found that Gibrat's Law applied to the urban system of Iran from 1956 to 1986, but not after 1986, and we observed a divergence trend in the urban growth of the country in these years. In other words, since 1986, large cities have grown at a faster rate, and small cities have grown at a slower rate, resulting in an increase in the population (size) difference between small and large cities in the urban system of Iran. These results were consistent with the findings of the rank-size rule test.

    Conclusion and Discussion

    Based on the most recent census in 2016, only 25 cities account for more than half of the urban population in the country. To be more specific, Iran had 1242 cities in 2016, of which 8 cities had over 1 million population, 90 cities had between 100,000 and 1 million population, and 1144 cities had less than 100,000 population. These facts indicate an uneven population distribution in Iran's urban system. The current study’s results show that the city size distribution in Iran's urban system is unequal and this inequality is growing over time. Additionally, the long-term urban growth trend is divergent. That is, larger cities have higher population growth rates while smaller cities have lower population growth rates, resulting in a divergent size of cities in the long term and agrowing population (size) gap between small and large cities over time. Based on the results and analyses of the current study, it can be argued that the government should implement effective policies to balance the distribution of city sizes.  Small cities are not big enough to enjoy economies of scale, and large cities in the urban system increase living costs such as congestion and pollution. Therefore, the overall urban system efficiency declines, and it is essential to implement policies to decrease the population of very large cities and increase the appeal of living for individuals and businesses in medium and smaller cities. By expanding infrastructure investments in medium and small cities and adopting suitable policies to attract population to them, the existing size difference between large cities and lower-ranked cities in the urban system can be reduced.

    Keywords: Zipf’s Law, Gibrat’s Law, City Size, Urban Inequality, Iran
  • Hojatollah Rahimi * Pages 481-514

    AbstractAccording to the Chicago School of Sociology, the high social class is always the winner of the competition for the best social roles and geographical situations, and has the power to manipulate the urban space by its class interests. This article presents an alternative interpretation to deconstruct the traditional view of the Chicago School of Sociology about the relations between money, power and residential moves within the city. To do this, the concentric zone model introduced by Burgess is selected as the analytical framework. The present article argues that the upper economic class is not always the fit class for urban competition, nor does it hold the ultimate determinative position in shaping the residential moves within the city. Instead, the lower-income class has the power to determine the location and movement of the upper economic class within the city concerning its class interests. The upper economic class are defeated in competition with the lower-income class to capture the best zone for residential use located next to the C.B.D. The power relations between different social classes should be considered as a network according to which the power is distributed among all social classes, rather than possessed by a specific social class. 

    Introduction

    According to the Chicago School of Sociology, the high social class is always the winner of the competition for the best social roles and geographical situation and has the power to manipulate the urban space by its class interests. Criticisms against the Chicago School of Sociology challenge the reactive position of this school towards social inequality in urban spaces. Although they have not legitimated the inter-class competition and the production of unequal urban spaces, these critics, like the Chicago School of Sociology, have implicitly accepted that the upper economic classes are the winners of inter-class competition due to their control over financial and political resources. Despite the insights drawn from these critics, this article argues that the interpretations and explanations presented by both the Chicago School of Sociology and these critics are insufficient. The present article argues that the upper economic class is not always a merit class. This class does not always win inter-individual and inter-class competition, but the lower economic class also has the power to control the patterns of residential moves within the city. The lower economic class can adjust the socio-spatial structure of the city in line with its class interests through collective action. This article presents an alternative interpretation to deconstruct the traditional interpretations presented by the Chicago School of Sociology about the relations between money, power and the patterns of residential moves within the city. 

    Methods and Data:

    To do this, the concentric zone model introduced by Burgess, a well-known member of the Chicago School of Sociology, is selected as the analytical framework. The socio-spatial structure of the city, according to Burgess's concentric zone model, is expanded in a few concentric circles or zones, each of which has its own specific function and land use pattern. The model divides the city into five concentric zones, including the central business district (C.B.D), transitional zone, labor residential zone, middle-class residential zone, and urban commuting zone. In other words, the city, according to this model, is divided into two large spaces: working and living spaces. C.B.D and the transitional zone constitute working spaces, and the three other zones are devoted to living spaces. The socio-spatial change and expansion of these zones are explained with regard to four ecological stages, i.e., invasion, resistance, entry and dominance. The alternative interpretation presented in this article can apply to other models of the socio-spatial structure of the city, such as Hoyt's sector model and Harris and Ullman's multiple nuclei model. These models have attempted to modify some assumptions underpinned the concentric zone model. For example, the spatial or physical expansion of the city in these models is asymmetry and discontinuous. The urban transportation network has a significant role in determining the direction of urban physical expansion and urban land price in the sector model. The multiple nuclei model adds heavy industries to the concentric zone model and removes the assumption of a mono-centric city. However, these models, like the concentric zone model, are based on social Darwinism and ecological assumptions about human society. 

    Findings

    The present article argues that the upper economic class is not always the fit class for urban inter-class competition, nor does it hold the ultimate determinative position in shaping the socio-spatial structure of the city. Instead, the lower-income class can also determine the location and movement of the upper economic class within the urban space concerning its class interests. The lower-income class, as the concentric zone model shows, occupies the best location for residential land use, i.e., houses in zone 3. Although the quality of houses is low, the land allocated for residential uses has potentially the highest price in this zone because of its proximity to C.B.D. Residential land uses in this zone are divided into small-area houses by the low-income class to correspond to their ability to pay house rent. Low-income class wins the inter-class competition for residing in zone 3 because their population is greater than the high-income class and their tendency to live in small-area houses. This article explains that the upper economic class cannot freely manipulate the urban space according to its class interests, as they are defeated in competition with the lower-income class to capture the best zone, i.e., zone 3 for residential use located next to the C.B.D. 

    Conclusion and Discussion

    As this article has argued, the socio-spatial structure of the city should be considered as an interconnected whole. The city is a structured continuum, and its constituent parts, i.e., the social classes, act not based on free will, but in terms of the necessity governing this complex, structured continuum. In addition, the power relations between different social classes should be analyzed as a network according to which the power is distributed among all social classes, rather than possessed by a specific social class.

    Keywords: competition, power, Optimal spatial location, Residential moves, City as a structured continuum