نشریه اقتصاد باثبات
سال پنجم شماره 1 (پیاپی 14، بهار 1403)

Well-being cannot be separated from several factors including economic growth, investment and government spending. Studies conducted by previous researchers show contradictory results in the relationship between investment and well-being. In this research, Iran's economic well-being was calculated by focusing on the four dimensions of consumption flow, wealth stocks, income distribution and economic security in the period from 1350 to 1401, which has an average of 41.3 in the research period. Then, the effect of public and private investment on economic well-being was investigated and tested with the autoregressive distributed lag approach. The moving trend of the Economic well-being index shows that economic well-being has had a downward trend since 1355 until the end of the war, and after that, in the long term, it has started an upward trend with numerous fluctuations. The findings of the long-term estimation of the model indicate that public and private investment has a positive effect on economic well-being, and in terms of size, the impact of public investment on well-being is far more than that of private investment. Also, according to the expectation, per capita income and economic growth have a positive effect on well-being, and inflation has a negative effect on it. In general, although public investment has a greater favorable effect on economic well-being than private investment; But the size of its favorable effect on welfare is less than the unfavorable effect of inflation. According to the results, it is suggested that the economic policymaker should avoid inflationary methods in order to finance investment while controlling and reducing inflation.

Fiscal decentralization refers to the transfer of responsibility and authority of revenue and spending decisions from the central government to lower levels. In recent years, with the increase in energy consumption, global warming, carbon emissions, and climate change, the issue of fiscal decentralization and its environmental effects has received attention. Because fiscal decentralization has an important effect on promoting clean energy sources, reducing energy consumption and reducing carbon emissions. In the present study, Hybrid intelligent models have been used to developed to predict and analyze the effect of fiscal decentralization from two dimensions of expenditure and revenue on energy consumption and its environmental environment by combining particle swarm optimization algorithms, genetics and neural network. Controlled optimization algorithms enhance all prediction steps. For this purpose, seasonal data was used during the period 1996-2022. According to the research results, resilient backpropagation neural network in predicting revenue decentralization and Scaled conjugate gradient backpropagation neural network has a high power in predicting expenditure decentralization in the country. Also, the value of R statistic, which indicates the goodness of fit of the model, has the highest value for the revenue decentralization variable compared to the expenditure decentralization, and this indicates the better performance of the revenue decentralization model than the expenditure decentralization. The results of the combination optimizer model (GPA) and the neural simulation model (GAPSO) in predicting the decentralization of expenditure and revenue showed that the decentralization of revenue had the best performance compared to the model of decentralization of expenditure. 

Resolving problems resulting from stagflation conditions accompanied with low economic growth and slow employment growth needs some policies that one of them can be unconventional monetary policy. Thus, this paper proposes to evaluate the effects of unconventional monetary policy shocks using VAR with a new method called sign restrictions. To this aim, it were estimated the effects of three variables ordered as real interest rate, inflation and gross domestic product by imposing positive and negative restrictions on these variables for the period 1961-2021. In this paper, the results of model estimation and impulse response functions is done by identifying and estimating parameters on the basis of imposing negative sign on interest rate according to unconventional monetary policy shocks. Results indicate that decreasing in interest rate causes increasing in GDP. Unconventional monetary policy can raise liquidity in stock market. It also support people by low interest rate loans for production with less cost and less sale price in Iran. Therefore, unconventional monetary policy can be a useful policy for resolving stagflation occurred current years in Iran.Extended Abstract:IntroductionThe global financial crisis(GFC) marked the transition from what many had labelled the period of “Great Moderation” to that of the “Great Recession”. The stress experienced by the financial sector starting in the summer of 2007 put an end to several years of robust growth for the world economy accompanied by moderate inflation rates across most advanced market economies. Across a number of countries, financial intermediation halted, with the peak of the stress manifesting in the final quarter of 2008. Unemployment increased and inflation dropped below central banks’ target levels as economic activity receded sharply. The recovery from the deep recession was also slow in many jurisdictions, with tepid economic growth, sluggish employment growth and subdued inflation. The challenges posed to monetary policy during this period were severe and pushed central banks to resort to actions departing from their established policy frameworks.The set of policy interventions introduced during this period has been labelled as unconventional monetary policy in order to distinguish it from the conventional pre-GFC policy measures. Some unconventional monetary policies were designed to affect term spreads such as long-term risk-free rates, while others were directed at influencing liquidity and credit spreads such as interest rates on various non-risk-free instruments. One of the most important tools in unconventional monetary policy is negative interest rate policy (NIRP). The adoption of negative policy interest rates in the aftermath of the GFC was new. Identification of shocks is one of the most important issues in econometrics for interpreting their impact on themselves and also other variables. Therefore, in case of unconventional monetary policy, VAR model is applied for identifying shocks. In the research, it was identified different shocks using sign-restriction approach in Iran for the period 1961-2021.

Social welfare as the development of people's living standards is one of the most important socio-economic categories, which has been explained and analyzed in economic texts, and the provision of welfare of society members by different societies has been discussed among thinkers and experts for a long time. . Although welfare is a concept that is used in all social sciences, but due to the wide scope of this concept, people do not have a single understanding of it and there are confusions about what is meant by welfare. The word "social welfare" is the birth of economic and social developments and relationships of recent centuries and has become the fundamental goal of development programs in different societies until today. A goal without which development in its various dimensions (human, social, cultural, political and economic) will fail. On the other hand, according to a 10-year research conducted by the United Nations University's Global Development Economics Research Institute (unitar), most countries that have succeeded in reducing poverty and increasing access to public goods have based this progress on strong economic growth. According to Fitzpatrick, prosperity is not the goal of development, but development itself, that is, we can consider a government and a society as developed that provides the minimum or appropriate level of life from various economic, educational, health and medical dimensions for each individual and its residents. provided When developing societies cannot have a suitable level of economic growth, one of the ways out of this situation is to increase and improve the level of social welfare. Social welfare is one of the most important and attention-grabbing issues in today's world. Development and movement towards development is one of the basic issues of different societies in the world, and underdeveloped societies are trapped in the so-called vicious circle of poverty due to the lack of per capita income and countless other factors. Accordingly, one of the most important goals of economic planners is to increase social welfare in order to expand economic growth. Therefore, the present research aims to evaluate the effects of social welfare on economic growth in Iran and selected developing countries in the period of 2002-2021 using the Generalized Method of Moments. The results of the study indicate that social welfare has a very high impact on economic growth. Also, the effectiveness of the government and political stability increase economic growth.

Environmental sustainability as an approach to development; It makes it possible to meet the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations. This approach helps to preserve natural resources, biodiversity, reduce negative effects on the environment, improve the quality of human life and develop a sustainable economy. Simply put, environmental sustainability means a balance between economic development, social sustainability and environmental preservation. Achieving environmental sustainability requires identifying and determining the factors affecting it. Therefore, the main objective of the present study is to examine the effect of political freedom and human development on environmental sustainability according to three indicators of Ecological footprint (EFP), carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) and Environmental Performance Index (EPI) in Iran over the period of time (1990 - 2022) using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS). Also, in this research, the human development index (HDI), which includes the economic and social dimensions of development, has been used to investigate the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). The research results show that human development index (HDI) has a negative effect and political freedom (FPI) has a positive and significant effect on environmental sustainability. On the other hand, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis test also showed that the square of the human development index has a positive and significant effect on environmental sustainability; As a result, based on this hypothesis, the inverted U relationship between human development index (HDI) and environmental sustainability is confirmed in this study. Other results of this research show that energy consumption (EC) has a negative effect, urbanization rate (URB) and commercial openness (OPE) have a positive and significant effect on environmental sustainability in the long term.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of the heterogeneous behavior of investors in the housing sector on housing prices and subsequently on Iran's economic growth during the period 2001:3 to 2020:3. For this purpose, first, the effect of herding behavior and overconfidence of investors on housing prices and then the effect of housing prices on economic growth was estimated by smooth transition regression (STR) method. Then, by calculating the Sobel statistic, the mediating role of the housing price in the transmission of the behavior of investors in the housing sector on economic growth was tested. The results showed that the housing price and economic growth functions have a threshold and two regimes. The imitative behavior of a previous period is the transition variable of the housing price function with a threshold equal to 0.0051 percent. The housing price is also a variable of economic growth function transfer with a threshold equal to 0.0266 percent The estimated coefficients of the first and second regimes indicate the asymmetric behavior of investors on housing prices. The estimation of the economic growth function showed that housing prices had a negative effect on economic growth in the first and second regimes, but this effect was strengthened in the second regime. The calculation of Sobel's statistic also showed that the housing price had a mediating role in transferring the effect of herding behavior on economic growth, but it did not act as a mediator in transferring the effect of overconfidence on economic growth.