نشریه اقتصاد دفاع و توسعه پایدار
پیاپی 31 (بهار 1403)

The pension system of the armed forces, like most of the country's pension funds, follows the DB-PAYG structure. In this structure, when the support ratio (the ratio of employees to the ratio of retirees) becomes less than 6, the fund actually faces a financial deficit. Due to the mentioned ratio being less than 1 in the this Pension Fund, its financial deficit is obvious. In addition to, other factors such as economic factors (high inflation), legal factors (early retirement law) and structural factors (government debt to the fund), the functioning of the armed forces pension system, has been overshadowed. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to identify and prioritize the solutions for reforming the pension system of the armed forces.To achieve the purpose of the research, the analytical-descriptive-survey method has been used. At first, theoretical and experimental studies and the function of the armed force Pension Fund are investigated. The basic challenges of the pension system and according to that, the policy solutions corresponding to them in the 5 axes of parametric, structural, economic, statistical and informational and legal reforms were calculated. then it was prepared in the form of a questionnaire containing 25 questions and after validating it (by experts) and Its reliability (through Cronbach's alpha), the questionnaire was distributed among ten experts in this field and analyzed by SPSS software.The results show that, the most important solution for reforming the armed forces pension system is related to legal reforms, and after that structural, economic, statistical and parametric reforms are in the next place respectively. Finally, operational solutions for reforming the armed forces pension system presented separately in five statistical areas in a scale approach (from the level of approvals of the fund Board of Directors to the approvals of the Islamic Council), from the level of implementation and optimization of the existing model to the reforms of the pension system paradigm.

The military industry sector is very important because of its strategic nature and the vital role it plays in creating the security of countries. This industry affects different sectors through different channels on the economic position of countries and their economic growth. Hence, the main goal of the current research is to investigate the role of military industries in different regimes of economic growth in Iran with using data from 1970 to 2021 and applying Markov regime switching models. The results of the research indicate that in an optimal model consisting of two regimes with low economic growth (regime zero) and high economic growth (regime one), the production of military industries has a positive effect on economic growth in Iran, but this effect is significant only in regime one. Moreover, foreign direct investment and export also affect the growth process only in the periods when the economic growth is higher, but education in both regimes has a positive effect on economic growth. Finally, the government size in both regimes and the inflation rate only in the regime one weakens economic growth. In addition, the findings of the research indicate that the probability of staying in the regime with low economic growth in the coming periods is higher than the regime with higher economic growth.

Security is a multidimensional concept that, while initially easy to grasp and universally understood at a basic level, becomes challenging to quantify and model due to its inherent complexity and multidimensionality. In this paper, the concept of "needs" is employed to understand and apply security in quantitative models, essentially treating security as two sides of the same coin. In other words, the absence of security in a domain has always been equivalent to endangering the needs of individuals or society in that domain. This research explores the concept of the needs-security correspondence and categorizes various dimensions of security based on Maslow's hierarchy of needs. To achieve this, the concepts of security and needs are examined based on Maslow's hierarchy, and different dimensions of security in each domain are identified. Then, using a regression model, the impact of various variables on security is examined for less developed countries. The results indicate that due to the level of development in these countries, basic needs and welfare enhance security, but future growth opportunities may have a negative impact on security.

Today, all aspects of human life are influenced by various forms of energy, especially oil and gas. So, competition among countries in the field of energy has reached its highest level. One of the significant and influential countries in this field is Russia. Examining the details of Russia's energy economy and the extent of their oil and gas trade can be useful for increasing Iran’s share in the energy market. Given the recent war between Russia and Ukraine, this matter has become even more crucial. Russia supplied a significant portion of the energy to the European Union, especially in the form of gas. Consequently, the war has brought about changes in this trade. This research explores various aspects of Russia's energy and presents the reasons for the importance of this country. Then, it thoroughly examines the different aspects of the Russia-Ukraine war, the ongoing results, and potential future effects.This research utilizes an artificial intelligence model, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) to predict the future of Iran's oil and gas exports, aiming to enhance the role of Iran in the world energy market. The applied data, has been collected on a season basis from 1990 to 2022. The findings indicate that the MLP model has accurately predicted the future of Iran's exports. Furthermore, the results of MLP prediction presents that the amount of Iran’s oil export will increase in the near future, but the amount of Gas export will decrease in the next three years.

The objective of the present paper was to propose a new optimal model for the endowment of a future fund for the personals of the army via investment in securities. The current study can be classified as applied-developmental in terms of its goals, and as descriptive research in terms of method of data collection. To achieve its objectives, the paper relied on a qualitative research design with an exploratory approach. The community of participants in the qualitative section included university professors and senior investment managers active in the financial market; 10 of whom were selected through theoretical sampling. The statistical population for the quantitative segment encompassed a small portion of the financial staff and the army future fund, out of whom a sample size of 384 people was gathered using the Cochran formula. The methodology for data collection consisted of conducting semi-structured interviews and researcher-designed questionnaires. The validity of the interview was confirmed across the four criteria of validity, transferability, confirmability and reliability. Reliability of the qualitative analysis was estimated to be 0.676 through the calculation of the Holstein coefficient, and 0.639 through the calculation of the Kappa coefficient. Regarding the quantitative aspect, formal, content, convergent and divergent validity were all taken into consideration. Reliability was also evaluated and confirmed through the estimation of Cronbach's alpha, as well as combined reliability and Rho coefficients. Data analysis in the qualitative segment relied on the grounded theory method and, the quantitative aspect utilized the partial least squares method.The findings of the research indicate that the factors influencing the establishment of a future fund for army personal include: registration and management of the fund; laws and regulations; And the provision of psychological resources. In this regard, providing financial resources for the fund has a background role whilst risk management obtains an interventionist role. Finally, strategic factors that lead towards increasing competitiveness of the fund include: investing in securities that contribute to the economic efficiency of the army and the diversification of financial resources.

The main objective of this paper is to examine the influence of monetary policy and total factor productivity on the industrial sector of Iran. By assuming the Iranian economy and the division of the economy into two sectors (namely, the industrial and other economic sectors), and drawing on the seasonal data between the years 2000-2022 and the Central Bank's Input-output table for 2016, the paper adopts a suitable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model based on the regional New Keynesian framework. After assigning values to some parameters obtained in previous studies and deriving an estimation regarding some of them, the variables were simulated and compared with real data to validate the model. The results of the model simulation indicate that the total factor productivity shock of the industry sector's (as well as the total factor productivity shock of other sectors) has increasing effects on total production, production of the industry sector, production of other sectors, consumption and has had a reducing effect on inflation in the economy. Also, the shock of liquidity growth will cause the growth of total production, industrial sector production and other sectors production and will increase consumption, employment and inflation.