نشریه جغرافیای طبیعی
پیاپی 64 (تابستان 1403)

The new city of Hashtgerd is located in the west of Alborz province and on the southern slope of the Alborz mountain range on alluvial sediments. The occurrence of earthquakes indicates a high seismicity rate in the region. The main purpose of this study is to pay attention to the fact that the new city of Hashtgerd is a developing city, therefore, paying attention to seismic conditions and seismic parameters will play an important role in the proper expansion and stability of engineering structures during future seismic events. In this study, based on the catalog of earthquakes and the location of active faults as primary data, seismic sources in the region have been identified. In the next step, seismic parameters are determined. Then, based on risk analysis studies, probabilities for the return period of 475 years for the city of Hashtgerd have been prepared using earthquake risk analysis software, ground acceleration zoning maps and uniform risk curves. According to the existing boreholes in the area, the influence of the soil magnification factor on the acceleration has been considered. The earthquake risk analysis in the new city of Hashtgerd possibly indicates a very high acceleration in a wide part of the city. With the influence of the magnification factor on the acceleration of the bedrock, the acceleration rate on the ground surface is estimated to be equal to (0.40 g). The extent of the new city of Hashtgerd has different accelerations and requires different designs for engineering structures in different areas.

Exploration of underground water sources as one of the ways to provide drinking water in the world is necessary and inevitable, considering the ever-increasing need of the world for water. The water crisis in Iran, especially in hot and dry cities, has now become a serious challenge. The high salinity and degree of hardness of water and water shortage in Birjand city will remind the officials related to water resources more and more about the solution of alternative water sources in the near future. Knowing the effective factors in finding the potential of karst water resources has a special place in the field of land management studies. The purpose of this research is to find the potential of karst water resources in Birjand city in South Khorasan province using AHP model. In this research, with the hierarchical analysis model, lithology information layers, distance from fault, slope, direction of slope, height, distance from waterway, distance from fault and land use were considered as factor maps. Also, in order to extract the karst water resource potential model, the shape files were called in the GIS10.3 ARC software environment. Different layers of information were classified as criteria maps by applying expert opinions and field observations. Finally, according to the obtained weight, the potential measurement map of karst water sources in Birjand city was obtained. The results showed that of the total area of ​​Birjand city, 26.40% is in the very low developed class, 27.58% in the low developed class, 23.86% in the middle class, 15.75% in the high developed class and 40.40% 6% is too much in the development class. Therefore, according to the judgment of karst experts and experts, the lithology factor of the area with a value of 0.41 has the highest weight and the most important factor controlling the potential of karst water resource development in the studied area, and the land use factor with a value of 0.017 has the lowest weight. assigned The results show that the lithological factors, the distance from the fault and the distance from the waterway have played the most important role in the current development of karst water resources in this city.

Today, the Resilience of Cities against Natural Hazards has become one of the important topics in Urban Management. On the other hand, paying attention to this issue from the point of view of future research has made it easier to plan to improve the future situation, therefore, The main goal of the present study Providing a model for increasing the resilience of the city of Konark against the Risks caused by Tropical Storms and It is with the approach Futures Studies. The Current Research is applied in terms of its purpose and Exploratory in its Nature, Two Documentaries and Field method have been used to collect data and information. The Statistical Population of this research included Relevant Experts and elites, who according to the objectives of the research and to achieve the desired model with a Future research approach through interviews with elites and experts and using a non-random purposeful sampling method (in a predetermined manner) done), and finally the Number of 15 People was obtained. In order to identify the key Driving Force, Structural analysis method (interaction effects) in the form of MICMAC Software was also used for Scenario writing using Scenario Wizard Software. The findings of the research showed that the Driving Force of "Surface Water Collection Channel" will have the most influence through their alternative futures (probable state) on other Driving Force in Determining the futures, and the Driving Force of "Changing the Structure of Organizations" Based on the Relationship of Alternative Futures, it has received the most influence from other alternative Futures. Also, the Driving Force of Flood Zoning Map, "Early Warning System of Natural Hazards and (GIS) and It has been Alternative futures of .that part Intermittent propellants

Climate change and global warming pose serious challenges to Iran's water resources. The water resources in the Zayandeh Rood Basin have decreased over the last two decades under the influence of climate change. Trend finding, turning-point detection, forecasting, and accuracy analyses of the models were performed to evaluate the effects of climate change on water resources. The minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, and discharge data were studied for 1966-2020. In this process, anomaly methods, Mann-Kendall and Pettitte non-parametric tests, Lars WG-6 generator (6th IPCC), and r, R2, NRMSE, and RMSE were used. The results of the trend analysis show a significant increase in the average annual temperature in the period (1966-2020) by approximately 1.4 °C and a significant decrease in winter precipitation with a slope of -1.28. The findings show that the trend of increasing temperatures will continue in the future (2021-2040). In various scenarios, the minimum and maximum temperatures will increase between 0.4 and 0.7°C, and from 0.6 to 0.8 °C, respectively. The annual precipitation will be reduced by 11%. In addition, based on the temperature-rainfall relationship, evaporation increases by 3% per 0.1 °C increase in temperature. As a result, the average discharge will be 1.5 to 1.9 percent in the period (2021-2040). Therefore, if there are no revisions to the field of water resource management, the challenge of accessing water resources will become more serious in the future. Strategies to adapt to climate change and increase resilience have been proposed.

Examining the snow cover and recognizing the patterns of snow formation can inform the environmental planners about the behavior of this phenomenon. In this research, by calling MODIS satellite data in Google Earth Engine environment and using NDSI index, the snow cover condition of Khalkhal city in 2003-2022 was investigated. In order to model snow systems in Khalkhal city, data related to heavy snow report was received from Iran Meteorological Organization. Then, two general patterns for the snow systems of Khalkhal city were determined by the cluster analysis method on the sea level pressure values ​​on the days with snowfall. Then, by selecting a representative day from each model, the situation of sea level pressure, geopotential height, temperature, temperature wind, humidity drift, wind flow and wind speed were analyzed. The results showed that the snow deposits in the central and northern areas of Khalkhal city reach their maximum extent especially in the winter seasons. The results also showed that there are two general patterns for the transfer of cold air mass and snowfall to the study area, each of which has its own mechanisms. The first pattern is influenced by the gradient of pressure and western winds, while the second pattern is influenced by Siberian high pressure systems, air subsidence and northern winds.

Cloudiness is one of the most important climate elements that plays a major role in the rainfall and water balance of any region. In addition, the radiation budget of each region is largely controlled by the cloudiness and cloud characteristics of each region. Knowledge of the temporal and spatial structure of clouds in each region plays an essential role in planning and checking programs based on water and energy resources. The main goal of this research is to analyze the temporal-spatial structure of cloudiness in Khuzestan province using gridded data of ECMWF cloud database version ERA5 in Khuzestan province during the statistical period of 1990-2020. The cloud data for Khuzestan province in NC format was obtained monthly from the Copernicus integrated climate database, which included the height of the base or cloud floor, the percentage of sky cloud cover by the upper, middle and lower clouds of each pixel was 0.25 degrees of arc. . By calling the mentioned data in the ARC-GIS environment and spatial averaging by separating the cold and warm periods of the year, 30-year average maps of the warm and cold periods of the year were produced for the two factors of total cloudiness and cloud base height. On the other hand, the sky cloud percentage values were also calculated through spatial averaging in Khuzestan province for each year (1990-2020). The results showed that, firstly, in both hot and cold periods of the year, the northeastern and mountainous parts of the province had higher cloud cover than the plains and lowlands of the province. In the cold period of the year, the percentage of cloudiness of the sky varied between 25 and 60%, while in the warm period of the year, the percentage of sky cloudiness reached less than 5%. In addition, it was observed that in the province of Khuzestan, the highest share of cloudiness in the cold period of the year is related to the upper clouds (cirrus family including cirrus, cirrustratus and cirrocumulus with a height of more than 4 thousand meters). These clouds have a share of 25% in the cloud coverage of Khuzestan province during the cold period of the year. Meanwhile, middle clouds (alto family clouds including altocumulus and altostratus) have a 16% share in the cloud cover of the sky of Khuzestan province. In terms of the cloudiness time series trend during the period of 1990-2020, despite significant annual changes in the amount of cloudiness of the province's sky, no significant trend was observed in the changes of cloudiness in Khuzestan province during the last three decades.