نشریه جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقه ای
سال دوم شماره 3 (پیاپی 6، پاییز 1403)

The main goal of the current research is to "perceive the spatial development scenarios of the southern area of the 19th district" and its macro goal is to "establish coherence and integration with the structural elements of the 19th region" in Tehran megalopolis. The key factors related to the spatial changes in the southern range of the 19th district were identified as 31 cases in three local, regional-areal and national-transnational scales by examining various sources and after consulting with 30 experts. The research tool is the Cross Impact Matrix questionnaire and its analysis has been done using Micmac software. The scenario writing process has also been implemented after determining the driving forces. The results show that the 19th district of Tehran is one of the target points of severe land use changes and the creation of peripheral settlements due to rural migrations and the displacement of the inner-city population, and consequently, the anomalies in the development process and the visual disturbance. The findings show that the 19th district has had strong growth and low density in terms of spatial development in the past few decades. The spatial development of the southern range of the 19th district will face three scenarios in the future, which are a) intensive development scenario in the current ranges of the district, b) linear development scenario in the main communication roads with low density and c) chaotic development scenario in all geographical directions. The optimal scenario for the 19th district is intensive development in the current ranges of the district (scenario 1) according to the social-cultural, physical-environmental, economic-service, political-administrative and management characteristics, and it’s the main origin of spatial development policies of the region.

In the present era, environmental challenges have increased the necessity of reducing the temporal and spatial limitations of environmental education in cities, and the need for effective educational frameworks in this field is felt. In this regard, the current  Futures Studies research examines the criteria and indicators important in the conceptual model of the environmental component of the educating city in Iran which is based on global experiences, further, the present research aims to analyze effective criteria and indicators in the environmental component in the educating cities with the use of global experiences. This research is conducted with an interpretive philosophy, an inductive approach, and an applied strategy, employing a descriptive-content analysis method and utilizing mixed methods design (qualitative-quantitative). The statistical population consists of 30 urban planning experts selected through a convenience sampling method. The data has been collected through library and field studies and data collection tools of documents and expert questionnaires. The findings of the research, based on the content analysis of 10 successful global experiences and using the Friedman test and structural equations, showed that 6 criteria of awareness, attitudes, policies, skills, behaviors and social-environmental interactions, with weights of 3.71 and 3.54, 3.48, 3.45, 3.42 and 3.40, respectively, on environmental development and its dimensions, including protection of aquatic ecosystems, optimal use of natural resources and energies, environmental protection, urban green development, promotion of public health, preservation of biodiversity and waste management have been effective with 29.66, 28.11, 27.44, 23.33, 18.94, 17.36 and 6.70 units respectively. The results reveal that adopting a comprehensive approach by utilizing the city’s capacity as a platform for environmental education, focusing on enhancing awareness, skills, attitudes, and behaviors, as well as strengthening social interactions and reforming policies, can create a conducive environment for environmental education and achieve environmental development.

In Iran, specifically in Sari, neglecting the mutual relationship between public transportation and urban development has led to uneven development. The main objective of this study is to assess the possibility of implementing the TOD development model in Sari with future studies approach. This study uses a quantitative method to achieve its goal. Documentary, library, and field study methods were used to collect data. The data collection tool in this study was a questionnaire distributed among 50 experts in urban and transportation planning using cluster sampling. Hierarchical analysis, statistical analysis, and SWOT techniques were used to analyze the data. Initially, four bus stations on Keshavarz Boulevard, Pasdaran Boulevard, Azadi Boulevard, and Imam Reza Boulevard in Sari were selected. Based on public transportation-based development criteria, these four stations were compared, and using the AHP method, the Imam Reza Boulevard bus station was selected as the best station for public transportation-based development. Then, a SWOT analysis was conducted for it and the scenarios were developed based on a qualitative futures studies approach. The positive aspects of this station include suitable residential density, diverse bus stations within an 800-meter range, and the potential for increased density. Its weaknesses include a lack of parking around the station, a lack of green space, and the absence of pedestrian and vehicular separation. Its most important strategies include smartening the public transportation system, appropriate distribution and deployment of land uses, and improving the quality of public transportation.

The close relationship between security and tourism development in areas with natural and historical attractions is an undeniable category. Ilam province has a bright future for the development of tourism due to its natural attractions and the dense forests of Western Zagros and the presence of abundant water resources, as well as the favorable tourism climate and the presence of many historical attractions such as castles, temples, fire temples and towers. Despite the abundance of such attractions in that region, it seems that the feeling of lack of necessary security among tourists has caused a lack of chance to choose it as a travel destination. The present developmental-applied research with a descriptive-analytical method aims at answering the main question "Why is not the desire of tourists to choose Ilam as a travel destination due to the abundance of its attractions, despite the existence of many tourist attractions and relatively sufficient security?" In order to test the validity of the hypothesis "the existence of socio-political factors leading to a feeling of insecurity, prevents the drawing of a clear picture of Ilam, and has caused this province to be removed from the choice of tourists", data has been collected in the form of documents and libraries. This research proves that attention to identifying and eliminating political, social and environmental risks in this border province will improve the mental image of tourists and their willingness to choose Ilam as a travel destination, and as a result, the tourism industry of the region will flourish in the future.

One of the basic objectives of development is reducing inequality and the prerequisite for any action to reduce inequality is to identify the components affecting development. In Iran, Yazd is a province with spatial inequality. Hence, this study aimed at future studies of the factors affecting the development of Yazd province. This research was a survey descriptive-analytical study. Data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire whose validity and reliability were confirmed through content validity and calculating Cronbach's alpha coefficient, respectively. The statistical population included 280 senior and executive managers related to the development affairs of the province; business elites, entrepreneurs and employers aware of the development issues of Yazd province; students and graduates of development majors, 163 of whom were selected as a sample based on Krejcie and Morgan table. Data were analysed using SPSS software. The results revealed that there was a significant difference between the current and desired conditions of components affecting the development of Yazd province. The largest and smallest gap was in the scientific and technological and social components, respectively. The findings indicated that the most important economic, social, cultural, scientific and technological, administrative and managerial components affecting the development of Yazd province include unemployment, immigration rate, the influence of foreign nationals on the work culture over a long time, the preparation of skilled workforce and discouragement of skilled workforce, respectively. Furthermore, the model of the most important components affecting the development of Yazd province was presented. Ultimately, these results can pave the way for the provincial policymakers in taking steps towards achieving the development of Yazd province.

Among the issues that are evident in Fardis City and require a comprehensive and future-oriented regeneration plan is the existence of worn-out texture and settlements, which have a significant physical density considering their population. The statistical population of the research is the residents of Fardis City, and to determine the sample size, 30 experts and specialists were selected, respectively, for a) specifying the reasons using the Delphi method, b) completing the cross-impacts matrix and entering it into the MicMac software, and c) determining the level of importance and uncertainty of key factors. The Delphi method is a structured process for collecting and classifying the knowledge available to experts. In cross-impact analysis, the interrelationships among various subsystems are examined. Based on the data, the ownership issue with a score of 73 was identified as the most effective and the disturbance of the image and landscape with a score of 77 was identified as the most susceptible driving force. Key factors include ownership issues, non-compliance with urban development plans, lack of municipal oversight, low economic level, unprincipled decision-making, lack of homogeneity among existing parcels, lack of a comprehensive attitude to the region, organic nature of the texture, and lack of a coherent texture development plan. Considering the importance of regeneration for the inefficient urban texture of Fardis and considering the future studies approach in the research, three scenarios are developed focusing on the ownership issue, low economic level, and lack of a coherent urban development plan. Based on the results, scenario 1 is considered the most desirable and scenario 3 is considered the worst for the area under study in Fardis.

In the contemporary world, with the rapid advances in science and technology, the urban planning system has also faced changes. Urban planning which was previously based on the traditional system, seems not to have the necessary balance and responsiveness to correct and solve the problem of worn-out tissues anymore. Therefore, the future research approach helps planners to see the future better and prevent negative consequences, especially in old fabrics. Future studies on worn-out tissues seem necessary in order to improve the standard of living and urban prosperity in the coming years. In terms of its nature, this research is considered to be applied research and in terms of data, it is quantitative research, which was carried out by descriptive-analytical method. Collecting data from the opinions of specialists and experts in the form of survey forms, and using prospective research techniques for data analysis, the data analysis tool in this research was Micmac software. The main goal of this research is to achieve the scenarios facing the old fabric of the Urmia metropolis by 1420. The most important driving factors were identified in relation to future research on worn-out fabric in Urmia. The results of this research show that 13 key factors will be influential in the future of the old fabric of Urmia city, then, according to the known key factors, the scenarios are predicted in four modes (white, grey, orange and black) for the old texture.