Future Study of the Spatial Development of the Peri-Urban Areas (Case Study: Southern Range of the 19th District of Tehran Megalopolis)

The main goal of the current research is to "perceive the spatial development scenarios of the southern area of the 19th district" and its macro goal is to "establish coherence and integration with the structural elements of the 19th region" in Tehran megalopolis. The key factors related to the spatial changes in the southern range of the 19th district were identified as 31 cases in three local, regional-areal and national-transnational scales by examining various sources and after consulting with 30 experts. The research tool is the Cross Impact Matrix questionnaire and its analysis has been done using Micmac software. The scenario writing process has also been implemented after determining the driving forces. The results show that the 19th district of Tehran is one of the target points of severe land use changes and the creation of peripheral settlements due to rural migrations and the displacement of the inner-city population, and consequently, the anomalies in the development process and the visual disturbance. The findings show that the 19th district has had strong growth and low density in terms of spatial development in the past few decades. The spatial development of the southern range of the 19th district will face three scenarios in the future, which are a) intensive development scenario in the current ranges of the district, b) linear development scenario in the main communication roads with low density and c) chaotic development scenario in all geographical directions. The optimal scenario for the 19th district is intensive development in the current ranges of the district (scenario 1) according to the social-cultural, physical-environmental, economic-service, political-administrative and management characteristics, and it’s the main origin of spatial development policies of the region.